[LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian Protestors...

Mon Mar 14 15:17:11 EST 2005

Hi,
First, let me say that I am really happy that we are exchanging
perspectives on the list, because I (with other people) think that
dialogue is one thing that lacks in lebanon. However, I have had some
questions that no one on the pro syrian side is answering.

But before I get to my questions, I'd like to clarify two things:
- It's not only the opposition that's exagerating the numbers. As far
as I am concerned, the government said that there were 1.5 million in
the pro syrian demonstration. Thanks to ayah's friends calculation, we
know that's very much overstated. I think it should not really matter
whose crowd is bigger as long as all voices are heard.
- as far as USA influence is concerned, I think every lebanese know
that the US would ditch the lebanese movement if at any pt, say the
syrians offered to close its borders to Iraq. I think that right now,
it benefits the Bush Administration to support the lebanese movement.
The USA has always been opportunisitic and have followed the path that
aligned most with their interests. That's no secret for anyone
including the opposition.

This said, I was actually surprised at how many people showed up for
the pro-syrian protest. I did not realize how many lebanese were pro
syrian. Clearly, there are voices that are not being heard and they
are not negligible, but going from there to saying that the majority
of lebanese people are not with the opposition is an understatement.

If i am to believe the numbers reported by testimonials, the BBC..., I
think that there all sources agree that there were no less than a
million people gathered with the opposition today. I think today's
protest takes care once and for all about what the majority of
Lebanese thinks in lebanon.

On to my question. I can understand why pro-syrians thank syria for
its continuous support, I can understand why pro-syrians blame the
US/israel for the murder of hariri. (when i say i understand, i mean,
i can see the perspective, but i am not saying i agree with it)
What I can't understand is why there is no desire in the Pro-syrian
demonstrations to find out who killed hariri. It's very easy to point
the finger at the US or Israel, but don't Pro-syrians find it odd that
intelligence services seem to crack down on any student meeting with
more than 10 attendants, but unable to figure out that someone was
plotting the assassination of Hariri? Isn't it odd that NO ONE got
fired from security services for doing what is clearly a pathetic job
at guaranteeing internal security? Isn't it odd that the government
carried out their normal routine (as far as i know, president lahoud
was attending his regular swimming practice the morning after)? I
mean, in the US, Michael moore tried to ridicule Bush for staying 5
min after he learned about september 11. That's extremely suspect.

One of the slogans of the opposition is to find the truth, but i have
yet to see one of the pro syrian demonstration ask for the truth. I am
hearing justice, and ayah implied previously that it's "(i.e., no
giving-in against the Israeli and their constant rape of the rights of
Palestinians, Syrians, Lebanese, etc... thus no peace with Israel till
it accepts a fair and comprehensive peace)." but I say "FIRST THINGS
FIRST". Let's first figure out justice internally (i.e. who killed
hariri), then we can worry about their palestinians getting their
rights.

I think, I speak on behalf of many people, when I genuinely ask: 'why
isn't anyone on pro syrian side asking those questions and why are we
diverting from the subject? '

Michel

On Mon, 14 Mar 2005 12:50:50 -0500, Ayah Bdeir <ayah at mit.edu> wrote:
> Hi Philippe,
> 
> I received this email a while ago, and there was a debate between architects
> and urban planners about the calculations. A friend of mine Jad replied with
> his own calculations and analysis, which I think is pretty valid.
> 
> -Ayah
> 
> Jad's reply
> 
> "I wanted to double check the info you sent me because I could barely
> believe that the protest I saw on TV only had 350.000 people.
> 
> Your friend claims he is a map-person... well, I happen to be an urban
> planner.
> I got the AutoCAD plans I have of Beirut city center. And I made some
> measurements...
> 
> Attached is a photo-print of my computer screen where you can see the
> results of the area-measurements.
> 
> 1- In yellow the area of the Hezbollah protest
> 2- In green the opposition protest
> 3- In full lines the areas that were actually full with people in peak
> moments of both protests (green full line for the opposition, yellow full
> line for Hezbollah).
> 4- In dotted lines (both colors), I drew a Maximum area, basically, the
> exaggerated scenarios that both sides could eventually claim...
> 
> FACTS:
> 
> 1- Area Hezbollah: 72.000m²
> Maximum; 87.000m²
> 
> 2- Area opposition: 20.000m²
> Maximum: 38.000m²
> 
> CALCULATIONS:
> 
> 1- Protest Hezbollah, counting 4 people/m² (in deed that is dense):
> 72 x 4= 288.000 people
> Max: 87 x 4= 348.000 people
> 
> 2- Protest opposition, same counting:
> 20 x 4= 80.000 people
> Max: 38 x 4= 152.000 people
> 
> CONCLUSION:
> 
> 1- Annahar is biased, it is exact when it comes to Hezbollah, and it
> exaggerates when it comes to the opposition
> 
> 2- In the worst of cases for the opposition, there would be 4.5 times more
> people in the Hezbollah protest than in theirs.
> 
> In the best of cases, there will be twice as much in Hezbollah-protest than
> in theirs.
> 
> SYNTHESIS:
> 
> Despite the small inexactitudes of the delineated areas and the densities
> and who participated etc, etc... There is AT THE VERY LEAST, half the
> Lebanese that are not aligned with the opposition. That can be for different
> reason.
> I believe that the major reason is that a lot of Lebanese that would like to
> see Syria out, do not TRUST the opposition and still believe that the
> opposition wants to substitute Syrian influence with USA influence.
> 
> So if you are really concerned about the unity of the Lebanese, and if you
> are really democratic (believe in the rule of the majorities), stop
> demeaning the others and stop accusing them of ignorance and treason and
> propose constructive solutions on how to convey the beliefs that we are
> fighting for without the shadow of a doubt. Giving clear messages on what we
> stand for and speak with one voice so that we can unite the Lebanese behind
> our good cause: FREEDOM, but also JUSTICE (i.e., no giving-in against the
> Israeli and their constant rape of the rights of Palestinians, Syrians,
> Lebanese, etc... thus no peace with Israel till it accepts a fair and
> comprehensive peace).
> 
> - Ayah
> 
>                              -    -
> 
>                          -            -
> 
>                '    '    -              -   '      '
> 
>           '             '  -         -   '             '
> 
>          '                 '   - - -    '                '
> 
>            ' ,              '(       ) '              , '
> 
>                '  ,  ,  ,  ,   - - -   ,   ,   ,   '
> 
>               '                '                 '
> 
>            '                  '   '                 '
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>             '  ,         ,   '     ' ,           , '
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>                   '   '                   '  '
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU
> [mailto:lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU] On Behalf Of Philippe Charles Saad
> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 12:40 PM
> To: lebanon-articles at mit.edu
> Subject: [LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian
> Protestors...
> 
> check this...
> 
> >>Dear all,
> >>When it comes to maps, you got to ask the Mapman   !
> >>I made some work on Beirut Satellite Maps (see the attached
> >>picture). I
> >>have to find out the size of the riadh solh square. I drew an
> >>approximate area (red polygon) over the satellite map.
> >>
> >>I added to the polygon all the small streets; I also included the 2
> >>buildings in the middle of the square.  The total area came out
> >>less
> >>then 88,000 m2 (according to Nahar the area 78,000m2).
> >>
> >>If we consider that there were 4 people in each 1m X 1m (they
> >>should be
> >>thin people!) then the total amount could have reached to 352,000.
> >>This
> >>number includes the syrians and palestinians.
> >>
> >>On Monday, according to many journalists there was at least 250,000
> >>in
> >>Freedom square.
> >>
> >>So if we compare this number with what LebGov sources said (1.5
> >>million), we can laugh......
> >>
> >>Cheers
> >>
> >>Long Live FREE Lebanon  !
> >>
> 
> ----- End forwarded message -----
> 
> 
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> 
>