[LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-SyrianProtestors...
Saad Shakhshir
saads at MIT.EDU
Mon Mar 14 15:16:25 EST 2005
I was wondering - what if there were people sitting on other people's
shoulder's. Did the study take this into account? How about people standing
on rooftops? And also the suggestion that 4 Lebanese can fit into 1m^2 seems
implausible to me since we just learnt a few months back that the majority of
lebanese are obese/overweight (for reference see Walid Chamoun's email dated
12/29/04).
Not to belittle what I think could be a very interesting and constructive
debate, but this "my demonstration was bigger than yours" attitude is, in my
opinion, very childish. I doubt that any "side" can credibly state that the
other "side" doesn't have a significant following. What is particularly
intriguing to me is that I believe both "sides" actually have a lot of common
ground - if they would only take the time to understand each other.
I would be very interested if someone gave thought to Jad Karam's email and
responded to some of the questions he posed. It appeared to me to be a genuine
attempt from someone on one "side" to understand those on the other "side".
Saad
Quoting tarek dajani <tdajani at alum.mit.edu>:
> Hi Ayah, and Philippe,
>
> I had so far refrained from commenting on any of the emails/statements that
> found their way into my mailbox.
> I have to admit that the last 2 emails have really tickled my restraint.
> It seems, us Lebanese have taken our quest for democracy to such a fine
> extent that we do not need to visit the voting booth anymore.
> All we need is urban planners, GIS experts and satellite imagery... and off
> we go.
> What is unfortunate though, is that we manage to be split even in that
> highly 'scientific' space. We should maybe call for international satellite
> observers from NASA to guarantee an impartial interpretation of dots piled
> up in our beloved BCD...
>
> Personally, i do not care which crowd is larger, which crowd is right or
> which crowd will prevail. Being the democrat that i am, i believe that our
> aim should be to aknowledge the split, work towards reconciling the
> differences, and be willing to accept the democratic outcome of upcoming
> elections. There will never be fully transparent elections, but ackowledging
>
> the split requires us also to come to terms with the fact that the Lebanese
> elections were also never fully corrupt. Some of our least favourite
> personalities in Lebanon are in reality truly the people's choice. If we
> come to term with that we might get somewhere, otherwise, we will go on
> counting the dots.. and contesting the count....and that's about it!
>
> Tarek
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ayah Bdeir" <ayah at mit.edu>
> To: "'Philippe Charles Saad'" <psaad at mit.edu>
> Cc: <lebanon-articles at mit.edu>
> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 8:17 PM
> Subject: RE: [LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of
> Pro-SyrianProtestors...
>
>
> > The area he drew was that of the mou3arada protest a few weeks ago. Today
> > was way beyond that outline.. I will keep u posted on new numbers
> >
> >
> > - Ayah
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Philippe Charles Saad [mailto:psaad at MIT.EDU]
> > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 1:09 PM
> > To: Ayah Bdeir
> > Cc: lebanon-articles at mit.edu
> > Subject: RE: [LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian
> > Protestors...
> >
> > Ayah,
> > Thanx for the message, The argument of jad is somehow valid if the area he
> > drew
> > was accurate, but however if you look at the videos on savelebanon.org you
> > can
> > see that the crowd protesting today extended beyond the green outline
> > (dotted
> > and continuous line) that Jad drew. In fact, the crowd today was gathered
> > all
> > round the officially called "Martyr's square" and even extending on the
> > port
> > road above the Charles Helou station and on the lower port road.
> > So please send to jad the plan where i outlined in red the extension of
> > martyr's
> > square and ask him to recalculate on Autocad the area of the protest
> > against
> > the military presence of syria.
> > p
> >
> >
> > Quoting Ayah Bdeir <ayah at MIT.EDU>:
> >
> >> Hi Philippe,
> >>
> >> I received this email a while ago, and there was a debate between
> > architects
> >> and urban planners about the calculations. A friend of mine Jad replied
> > with
> >> his own calculations and analysis, which I think is pretty valid.
> >>
> >> -Ayah
> >>
> >> Jad's reply
> >>
> >> "I wanted to double check the info you sent me because I could barely
> >> believe that the protest I saw on TV only had 350.000 people.
> >>
> >> Your friend claims he is a map-person... well, I happen to be an urban
> >> planner.
> >> I got the AutoCAD plans I have of Beirut city center. And I made some
> >> measurements...
> >>
> >> Attached is a photo-print of my computer screen where you can see the
> >> results of the area-measurements.
> >>
> >> 1- In yellow the area of the Hezbollah protest
> >> 2- In green the opposition protest
> >> 3- In full lines the areas that were actually full with people in peak
> >> moments of both protests (green full line for the opposition, yellow full
> >> line for Hezbollah).
> >> 4- In dotted lines (both colors), I drew a Maximum area, basically, the
> >> exaggerated scenarios that both sides could eventually claim...
> >>
> >> FACTS:
> >>
> >> 1- Area Hezbollah: 72.000m²
> >> Maximum; 87.000m²
> >>
> >> 2- Area opposition: 20.000m²
> >> Maximum: 38.000m²
> >>
> >> CALCULATIONS:
> >>
> >> 1- Protest Hezbollah, counting 4 people/m² (in deed that is dense):
> >> 72 x 4= 288.000 people
> >> Max: 87 x 4= 348.000 people
> >>
> >> 2- Protest opposition, same counting:
> >> 20 x 4= 80.000 people
> >> Max: 38 x 4= 152.000 people
> >>
> >> CONCLUSION:
> >>
> >> 1- Annahar is biased, it is exact when it comes to Hezbollah, and it
> >> exaggerates when it comes to the opposition
> >>
> >> 2- In the worst of cases for the opposition, there would be 4.5 times
> >> more
> >> people in the Hezbollah protest than in theirs.
> >>
> >> In the best of cases, there will be twice as much in Hezbollah-protest
> > than
> >> in theirs.
> >>
> >> SYNTHESIS:
> >>
> >> Despite the small inexactitudes of the delineated areas and the densities
> >> and who participated etc, etc... There is AT THE VERY LEAST, half the
> >> Lebanese that are not aligned with the opposition. That can be for
> > different
> >> reason.
> >> I believe that the major reason is that a lot of Lebanese that would like
> > to
> >> see Syria out, do not TRUST the opposition and still believe that the
> >> opposition wants to substitute Syrian influence with USA influence.
> >>
> >> So if you are really concerned about the unity of the Lebanese, and if
> >> you
> >> are really democratic (believe in the rule of the majorities), stop
> >> demeaning the others and stop accusing them of ignorance and treason and
> >> propose constructive solutions on how to convey the beliefs that we are
> >> fighting for without the shadow of a doubt. Giving clear messages on what
> > we
> >> stand for and speak with one voice so that we can unite the Lebanese
> > behind
> >> our good cause: FREEDOM, but also JUSTICE (i.e., no giving-in against the
> >> Israeli and their constant rape of the rights of Palestinians, Syrians,
> >> Lebanese, etc... thus no peace with Israel till it accepts a fair and
> >> comprehensive peace).
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> - Ayah
> >>
> >> - -
> >>
> >> - -
> >>
> >> ' ' - - ' '
> >>
> >> ' ' - - ' '
> >>
> >> ' ' - - - ' '
> >>
> >> ' , '( ) ' , '
> >>
> >> ' , , , , - - - , , , '
> >>
> >> ' ' '
> >>
> >> ' ' ' '
> >>
> >> ' , , ' ' , , '
> >>
> >> ' ' ' '
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU
> >> [mailto:lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU] On Behalf Of Philippe Charles
> > Saad
> >> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 12:40 PM
> >> To: lebanon-articles at mit.edu
> >> Subject: [LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian
> >> Protestors...
> >>
> >> check this...
> >>
> >>
> >> >>Dear all,
> >> >>When it comes to maps, you got to ask the Mapman !
> >> >>I made some work on Beirut Satellite Maps (see the attached
> >> >>picture). I
> >> >>have to find out the size of the riadh solh square. I drew an
> >> >>approximate area (red polygon) over the satellite map.
> >> >>
> >> >>I added to the polygon all the small streets; I also included the 2
> >> >>buildings in the middle of the square. The total area came out
> >> >>less
> >> >>then 88,000 m2 (according to Nahar the area 78,000m2).
> >> >>
> >> >>If we consider that there were 4 people in each 1m X 1m (they
> >> >>should be
> >> >>thin people!) then the total amount could have reached to 352,000.
> >> >>This
> >> >>number includes the syrians and palestinians.
> >> >>
> >> >>On Monday, according to many journalists there was at least 250,000
> >> >>in
> >> >>Freedom square.
> >> >>
> >> >>So if we compare this number with what LebGov sources said (1.5
> >> >>million), we can laugh......
> >> >>
> >> >>Cheers
> >> >>
> >> >>Long Live FREE Lebanon !
> >> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> ----- End forwarded message -----
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
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> > http://mailman.mit.edu/mailman/listinfo/lebanon-articles
> >
> >
>
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