[LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-SyrianProtestors...
tarek dajani
tdajani at alum.mit.edu
Mon Mar 14 13:29:05 EST 2005
Hi Ayah, and Philippe,
I had so far refrained from commenting on any of the emails/statements that
found their way into my mailbox.
I have to admit that the last 2 emails have really tickled my restraint.
It seems, us Lebanese have taken our quest for democracy to such a fine
extent that we do not need to visit the voting booth anymore.
All we need is urban planners, GIS experts and satellite imagery... and off
we go.
What is unfortunate though, is that we manage to be split even in that
highly 'scientific' space. We should maybe call for international satellite
observers from NASA to guarantee an impartial interpretation of dots piled
up in our beloved BCD...
Personally, i do not care which crowd is larger, which crowd is right or
which crowd will prevail. Being the democrat that i am, i believe that our
aim should be to aknowledge the split, work towards reconciling the
differences, and be willing to accept the democratic outcome of upcoming
elections. There will never be fully transparent elections, but ackowledging
the split requires us also to come to terms with the fact that the Lebanese
elections were also never fully corrupt. Some of our least favourite
personalities in Lebanon are in reality truly the people's choice. If we
come to term with that we might get somewhere, otherwise, we will go on
counting the dots.. and contesting the count....and that's about it!
Tarek
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ayah Bdeir" <ayah at mit.edu>
To: "'Philippe Charles Saad'" <psaad at mit.edu>
Cc: <lebanon-articles at mit.edu>
Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 8:17 PM
Subject: RE: [LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of
Pro-SyrianProtestors...
> The area he drew was that of the mou3arada protest a few weeks ago. Today
> was way beyond that outline.. I will keep u posted on new numbers
>
>
> - Ayah
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Philippe Charles Saad [mailto:psaad at MIT.EDU]
> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 1:09 PM
> To: Ayah Bdeir
> Cc: lebanon-articles at mit.edu
> Subject: RE: [LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian
> Protestors...
>
> Ayah,
> Thanx for the message, The argument of jad is somehow valid if the area he
> drew
> was accurate, but however if you look at the videos on savelebanon.org you
> can
> see that the crowd protesting today extended beyond the green outline
> (dotted
> and continuous line) that Jad drew. In fact, the crowd today was gathered
> all
> round the officially called "Martyr's square" and even extending on the
> port
> road above the Charles Helou station and on the lower port road.
> So please send to jad the plan where i outlined in red the extension of
> martyr's
> square and ask him to recalculate on Autocad the area of the protest
> against
> the military presence of syria.
> p
>
>
> Quoting Ayah Bdeir <ayah at MIT.EDU>:
>
>> Hi Philippe,
>>
>> I received this email a while ago, and there was a debate between
> architects
>> and urban planners about the calculations. A friend of mine Jad replied
> with
>> his own calculations and analysis, which I think is pretty valid.
>>
>> -Ayah
>>
>> Jad's reply
>>
>> "I wanted to double check the info you sent me because I could barely
>> believe that the protest I saw on TV only had 350.000 people.
>>
>> Your friend claims he is a map-person... well, I happen to be an urban
>> planner.
>> I got the AutoCAD plans I have of Beirut city center. And I made some
>> measurements...
>>
>> Attached is a photo-print of my computer screen where you can see the
>> results of the area-measurements.
>>
>> 1- In yellow the area of the Hezbollah protest
>> 2- In green the opposition protest
>> 3- In full lines the areas that were actually full with people in peak
>> moments of both protests (green full line for the opposition, yellow full
>> line for Hezbollah).
>> 4- In dotted lines (both colors), I drew a Maximum area, basically, the
>> exaggerated scenarios that both sides could eventually claim...
>>
>> FACTS:
>>
>> 1- Area Hezbollah: 72.000m²
>> Maximum; 87.000m²
>>
>> 2- Area opposition: 20.000m²
>> Maximum: 38.000m²
>>
>> CALCULATIONS:
>>
>> 1- Protest Hezbollah, counting 4 people/m² (in deed that is dense):
>> 72 x 4= 288.000 people
>> Max: 87 x 4= 348.000 people
>>
>> 2- Protest opposition, same counting:
>> 20 x 4= 80.000 people
>> Max: 38 x 4= 152.000 people
>>
>> CONCLUSION:
>>
>> 1- Annahar is biased, it is exact when it comes to Hezbollah, and it
>> exaggerates when it comes to the opposition
>>
>> 2- In the worst of cases for the opposition, there would be 4.5 times
>> more
>> people in the Hezbollah protest than in theirs.
>>
>> In the best of cases, there will be twice as much in Hezbollah-protest
> than
>> in theirs.
>>
>> SYNTHESIS:
>>
>> Despite the small inexactitudes of the delineated areas and the densities
>> and who participated etc, etc... There is AT THE VERY LEAST, half the
>> Lebanese that are not aligned with the opposition. That can be for
> different
>> reason.
>> I believe that the major reason is that a lot of Lebanese that would like
> to
>> see Syria out, do not TRUST the opposition and still believe that the
>> opposition wants to substitute Syrian influence with USA influence.
>>
>> So if you are really concerned about the unity of the Lebanese, and if
>> you
>> are really democratic (believe in the rule of the majorities), stop
>> demeaning the others and stop accusing them of ignorance and treason and
>> propose constructive solutions on how to convey the beliefs that we are
>> fighting for without the shadow of a doubt. Giving clear messages on what
> we
>> stand for and speak with one voice so that we can unite the Lebanese
> behind
>> our good cause: FREEDOM, but also JUSTICE (i.e., no giving-in against the
>> Israeli and their constant rape of the rights of Palestinians, Syrians,
>> Lebanese, etc... thus no peace with Israel till it accepts a fair and
>> comprehensive peace).
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> - Ayah
>>
>> - -
>>
>> - -
>>
>> ' ' - - ' '
>>
>> ' ' - - ' '
>>
>> ' ' - - - ' '
>>
>> ' , '( ) ' , '
>>
>> ' , , , , - - - , , , '
>>
>> ' ' '
>>
>> ' ' ' '
>>
>> ' , , ' ' , , '
>>
>> ' ' ' '
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU
>> [mailto:lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU] On Behalf Of Philippe Charles
> Saad
>> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 12:40 PM
>> To: lebanon-articles at mit.edu
>> Subject: [LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian
>> Protestors...
>>
>> check this...
>>
>>
>> >>Dear all,
>> >>When it comes to maps, you got to ask the Mapman !
>> >>I made some work on Beirut Satellite Maps (see the attached
>> >>picture). I
>> >>have to find out the size of the riadh solh square. I drew an
>> >>approximate area (red polygon) over the satellite map.
>> >>
>> >>I added to the polygon all the small streets; I also included the 2
>> >>buildings in the middle of the square. The total area came out
>> >>less
>> >>then 88,000 m2 (according to Nahar the area 78,000m2).
>> >>
>> >>If we consider that there were 4 people in each 1m X 1m (they
>> >>should be
>> >>thin people!) then the total amount could have reached to 352,000.
>> >>This
>> >>number includes the syrians and palestinians.
>> >>
>> >>On Monday, according to many journalists there was at least 250,000
>> >>in
>> >>Freedom square.
>> >>
>> >>So if we compare this number with what LebGov sources said (1.5
>> >>million), we can laugh......
>> >>
>> >>Cheers
>> >>
>> >>Long Live FREE Lebanon !
>> >>
>>
>>
>> ----- End forwarded message -----
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
>
>
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