[LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian Protestors...

Mon Mar 14 15:34:55 EST 2005

I made a small typo at the bottom of my email and don't want it to be
misinterpreted:
I wrote "Let's first figure out justice internally (i.e. who killed
> hariri), then we can worry about their palestinians getting their
> rights."
I meant THE palestinians not 'their'

m.


On Mon, 14 Mar 2005 15:17:11 -0500, Michel Rbeiz <mrbeiz at gmail.com> wrote:
> Hi,
> First, let me say that I am really happy that we are exchanging
> perspectives on the list, because I (with other people) think that
> dialogue is one thing that lacks in lebanon. However, I have had some
> questions that no one on the pro syrian side is answering.
> 
> But before I get to my questions, I'd like to clarify two things:
> - It's not only the opposition that's exagerating the numbers. As far
> as I am concerned, the government said that there were 1.5 million in
> the pro syrian demonstration. Thanks to ayah's friends calculation, we
> know that's very much overstated. I think it should not really matter
> whose crowd is bigger as long as all voices are heard.
> - as far as USA influence is concerned, I think every lebanese know
> that the US would ditch the lebanese movement if at any pt, say the
> syrians offered to close its borders to Iraq. I think that right now,
> it benefits the Bush Administration to support the lebanese movement.
> The USA has always been opportunisitic and have followed the path that
> aligned most with their interests. That's no secret for anyone
> including the opposition.
> 
> This said, I was actually surprised at how many people showed up for
> the pro-syrian protest. I did not realize how many lebanese were pro
> syrian. Clearly, there are voices that are not being heard and they
> are not negligible, but going from there to saying that the majority
> of lebanese people are not with the opposition is an understatement.
> 
> If i am to believe the numbers reported by testimonials, the BBC..., I
> think that there all sources agree that there were no less than a
> million people gathered with the opposition today. I think today's
> protest takes care once and for all about what the majority of
> Lebanese thinks in lebanon.
> 
> On to my question. I can understand why pro-syrians thank syria for
> its continuous support, I can understand why pro-syrians blame the
> US/israel for the murder of hariri. (when i say i understand, i mean,
> i can see the perspective, but i am not saying i agree with it)
> What I can't understand is why there is no desire in the Pro-syrian
> demonstrations to find out who killed hariri. It's very easy to point
> the finger at the US or Israel, but don't Pro-syrians find it odd that
> intelligence services seem to crack down on any student meeting with
> more than 10 attendants, but unable to figure out that someone was
> plotting the assassination of Hariri? Isn't it odd that NO ONE got
> fired from security services for doing what is clearly a pathetic job
> at guaranteeing internal security? Isn't it odd that the government
> carried out their normal routine (as far as i know, president lahoud
> was attending his regular swimming practice the morning after)? I
> mean, in the US, Michael moore tried to ridicule Bush for staying 5
> min after he learned about september 11. That's extremely suspect.
> 
> One of the slogans of the opposition is to find the truth, but i have
> yet to see one of the pro syrian demonstration ask for the truth. I am
> hearing justice, and ayah implied previously that it's "(i.e., no
> giving-in against the Israeli and their constant rape of the rights of
> Palestinians, Syrians, Lebanese, etc... thus no peace with Israel till
> it accepts a fair and comprehensive peace)." but I say "FIRST THINGS
> FIRST". Let's first figure out justice internally (i.e. who killed
> hariri), then we can worry about their palestinians getting their
> rights.
> 
> I think, I speak on behalf of many people, when I genuinely ask: 'why
> isn't anyone on pro syrian side asking those questions and why are we
> diverting from the subject? '
> 
> Michel
> 
> 
> On Mon, 14 Mar 2005 12:50:50 -0500, Ayah Bdeir <ayah at mit.edu> wrote:
> > Hi Philippe,
> >
> > I received this email a while ago, and there was a debate between architects
> > and urban planners about the calculations. A friend of mine Jad replied with
> > his own calculations and analysis, which I think is pretty valid.
> >
> > -Ayah
> >
> > Jad's reply
> >
> > "I wanted to double check the info you sent me because I could barely
> > believe that the protest I saw on TV only had 350.000 people.
> >
> > Your friend claims he is a map-person... well, I happen to be an urban
> > planner.
> > I got the AutoCAD plans I have of Beirut city center. And I made some
> > measurements...
> >
> > Attached is a photo-print of my computer screen where you can see the
> > results of the area-measurements.
> >
> > 1- In yellow the area of the Hezbollah protest
> > 2- In green the opposition protest
> > 3- In full lines the areas that were actually full with people in peak
> > moments of both protests (green full line for the opposition, yellow full
> > line for Hezbollah).
> > 4- In dotted lines (both colors), I drew a Maximum area, basically, the
> > exaggerated scenarios that both sides could eventually claim...
> >
> > FACTS:
> >
> > 1- Area Hezbollah: 72.000m²
> > Maximum; 87.000m²
> >
> > 2- Area opposition: 20.000m²
> > Maximum: 38.000m²
> >
> > CALCULATIONS:
> >
> > 1- Protest Hezbollah, counting 4 people/m² (in deed that is dense):
> > 72 x 4= 288.000 people
> > Max: 87 x 4= 348.000 people
> >
> > 2- Protest opposition, same counting:
> > 20 x 4= 80.000 people
> > Max: 38 x 4= 152.000 people
> >
> > CONCLUSION:
> >
> > 1- Annahar is biased, it is exact when it comes to Hezbollah, and it
> > exaggerates when it comes to the opposition
> >
> > 2- In the worst of cases for the opposition, there would be 4.5 times more
> > people in the Hezbollah protest than in theirs.
> >
> > In the best of cases, there will be twice as much in Hezbollah-protest than
> > in theirs.
> >
> > SYNTHESIS:
> >
> > Despite the small inexactitudes of the delineated areas and the densities
> > and who participated etc, etc... There is AT THE VERY LEAST, half the
> > Lebanese that are not aligned with the opposition. That can be for different
> > reason.
> > I believe that the major reason is that a lot of Lebanese that would like to
> > see Syria out, do not TRUST the opposition and still believe that the
> > opposition wants to substitute Syrian influence with USA influence.
> >
> > So if you are really concerned about the unity of the Lebanese, and if you
> > are really democratic (believe in the rule of the majorities), stop
> > demeaning the others and stop accusing them of ignorance and treason and
> > propose constructive solutions on how to convey the beliefs that we are
> > fighting for without the shadow of a doubt. Giving clear messages on what we
> > stand for and speak with one voice so that we can unite the Lebanese behind
> > our good cause: FREEDOM, but also JUSTICE (i.e., no giving-in against the
> > Israeli and their constant rape of the rights of Palestinians, Syrians,
> > Lebanese, etc... thus no peace with Israel till it accepts a fair and
> > comprehensive peace).
> >
> > - Ayah
> >
> >                              -    -
> >
> >                          -            -
> >
> >                '    '    -              -   '      '
> >
> >           '             '  -         -   '             '
> >
> >          '                 '   - - -    '                '
> >
> >            ' ,              '(       ) '              , '
> >
> >                '  ,  ,  ,  ,   - - -   ,   ,   ,   '
> >
> >               '                '                 '
> >
> >            '                  '   '                 '
> >
> >             '  ,         ,   '     ' ,           , '
> >
> >                   '   '                   '  '
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU
> > [mailto:lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU] On Behalf Of Philippe Charles Saad
> > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 12:40 PM
> > To: lebanon-articles at mit.edu
> > Subject: [LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian
> > Protestors...
> >
> > check this...
> >
> > >>Dear all,
> > >>When it comes to maps, you got to ask the Mapman   !
> > >>I made some work on Beirut Satellite Maps (see the attached
> > >>picture). I
> > >>have to find out the size of the riadh solh square. I drew an
> > >>approximate area (red polygon) over the satellite map.
> > >>
> > >>I added to the polygon all the small streets; I also included the 2
> > >>buildings in the middle of the square.  The total area came out
> > >>less
> > >>then 88,000 m2 (according to Nahar the area 78,000m2).
> > >>
> > >>If we consider that there were 4 people in each 1m X 1m (they
> > >>should be
> > >>thin people!) then the total amount could have reached to 352,000.
> > >>This
> > >>number includes the syrians and palestinians.
> > >>
> > >>On Monday, according to many journalists there was at least 250,000
> > >>in
> > >>Freedom square.
> > >>
> > >>So if we compare this number with what LebGov sources said (1.5
> > >>million), we can laugh......
> > >>
> > >>Cheers
> > >>
> > >>Long Live FREE Lebanon  !
> > >>
> >
> > ----- End forwarded message -----
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
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> > http://mailman.mit.edu/mailman/listinfo/lebanon-articles
> >
> >
> >
> >
>