[Sci-tech-public] Oct. 6 Seminar, "Solar Power through 2020: Potential & Challenges"

[Karen Gibson]

Environment and Sustainability Seminar Series
Sponsored by the MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment (LFEE)

Please join us Wednesday (tomorrow) for the first Seminar of the semester.


SOLAR POWER THROUGH 2020: POTENTIAL & CHALLENGES
Michael Rogol, Doctoral Candidate, Engineering Systems Division

Wednesday, October 6
12:00 - 1:30 pm
E40-496

23x GROWTH IN LAST DECADE.  Today, solar power is a small fraction of overall
power supply, but has expanded quickly in the last 10 years.  Residential
rooftop installations in Germany and Japan drove this growth.  The growth has
been fueled by high residential power prices, rapidly falling costs, strong
government incentives, and low interest rates. 

25x GROWTH IN NEXT DECADE?  Based on interviews with 200+ solar power 
companies,
there is general consensus within the industry that solar power is likely to
expand at least 20x through 2015.  This view appears realistic (though not
guaranteed) based on likely cost reductions, expanding pro-solar polices in new
markets (e.g. Spain, Italy, South Korea), and growing "supply push" from large
companies (e.g. Sharp, Kyocera, BP, GE).  The result: by 2015, solar has
realistic potential to be 3% of generating hours in Germany & Japan and more
than 10% of annual global net capacity additions.

BEYOND 2015, SOLAR FACES NUMEROUS CHALLENGES.  While solar's growth prospects
are strong, the sector will likely face several challenges within a decade.
These challenges include technical limits of polycrystaline silicon,
difficulties in transitioning to new technologies, expensive economics,
prohibitive costs for incentive policies, and potential backlash from
generating companies. 

REQUIREMENTS FOR LARGE-SCALE SOLAR POWER DEPLOYMENT.  The goal of ongoing
research is to identify the technical, economic and policy requirements to
enable large-scale (multi-terawatt) deployment of solar power by mid-century.


_________________________________________________________________
Part of a series of brown bag talks on issues of energy, environment, 
and sustainability sponsored by the MIT Laboratory for Energy and the 
Environment.  Bring your lunch - cookies and drinks will be provided.

If you would like to be added to or removed from this mailing list, 
please contact Karen Gibson, kgibson at mit.edu.
-- 
_________________________________
Karen  L. Gibson
Program Assistant
MIT Laboratory For Energy and the Environment
77 Massachusetts Avenue, E40-469
(1 Amherst St., E40-469 - for DHL and FedEx)
Cambridge, MA 02139  USA
Tel:  1 (617) 258-6368; Fax:  1 (617) 258-6590
http://lfee.mit.edu
http://globalsustainability.org
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