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--></style><title>Oct. 6 Seminar, "Solar Power through 2020:
Potential &</title></head><body>
<div>Environment and Sustainability Seminar Series</div>
<div>Sponsored by the MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment
(LFEE)</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Please join us Wednesday (tomorrow) for the first Seminar of the
semester.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><br></div>
<div><b>SOLAR POWER THROUGH 2020: POTENTIAL & CHALLENGES</b></div>
<div><b>Michael Rogol, Doctoral Candidate, Engineering Systems
Division</b></div>
<div><b><br></b></div>
<div><b>Wednesday, October 6</b></div>
<div><b>12:00 - 1:30 pm</b></div>
<div><b>E40-496</b></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>23x GROWTH IN LAST DECADE. Today, solar power is a small
fraction of overall<br>
power supply, but has expanded quickly in the last 10 years.
Residential<br>
rooftop installations in Germany and Japan drove this growth.
The growth has<br>
been fueled by high residential power prices, rapidly falling costs,
strong<br>
government incentives, and low interest rates. <br>
<br>
25x GROWTH IN NEXT DECADE? Based on interviews with 200+ solar
power companies,<br>
there is general consensus within the industry that solar power is
likely to<br>
expand at least 20x through 2015. This view appears realistic
(though not<br>
guaranteed) based on likely cost reductions, expanding pro-solar
polices in new<br>
markets (e.g. Spain, Italy, South Korea), and growing "supply
push" from large<br>
companies (e.g. Sharp, Kyocera, BP, GE). The result: by 2015,
solar has<br>
realistic potential to be 3% of generating hours in Germany &
Japan and more<br>
than 10% of annual global net capacity additions.<br>
<br>
BEYOND 2015, SOLAR FACES NUMEROUS CHALLENGES. While solar's
growth prospects<br>
are strong, the sector will likely face several challenges within a
decade.<br>
These challenges include technical limits of polycrystaline
silicon,<br>
difficulties in transitioning to new technologies, expensive
economics,<br>
prohibitive costs for incentive policies, and potential backlash
from<br>
generating companies. <br>
<br>
REQUIREMENTS FOR LARGE-SCALE SOLAR POWER DEPLOYMENT. The goal of
ongoing<br>
research is to identify the technical, economic and policy
requirements to</div>
<div>enable large-scale (multi-terawatt) deployment of solar power by
mid-century.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>_________________________________________________________________</div
>
<div>Part of a series of brown bag talks on issues of energy,
environment, and sustainability sponsored by the MIT Laboratory for
Energy and the Environment. Bring your lunch - cookies and
drinks will be provided.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>If you would like to be added to or removed from this mailing
list, please contact Karen Gibson, kgibson@mit.edu.</div>
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<div><font
color="#000000">_________________________________</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">Karen L. Gibson</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">Program Assistant</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">MIT Laboratory For Energy and the
Environment</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">77 Massachusetts Avenue,
E40-469</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">(1 Amherst St., E40-469 - for DHL and
FedEx)</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">Cambridge, MA 02139 USA</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">Tel: 1 (617) 258-6368; Fax: 1
(617) 258-6590</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">http://lfee.mit.edu</font></div>
<div><font
color="#000000">http://globalsustainability.org</font></div>
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