[LCM Articles] Kerry: A crucial time for saving Lebanon's fragile democracy

[Marc Haddad]

more beating of a dead horse...

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007...

JOHN F. KERRY
A crucial time for saving Lebanon's fragile democracy

EVERYWHERE I traveled throughout the Middle East this winter, the feeling
was inescapable that the region could explode at any time. The threat of
three simultaneous civil wars that King Abdullah of Jordan spoke of is
real, and perhaps the most imminent danger -- in Lebanon -- is the least
understood.

Lost in the shadows of Iraq, the struggle to save the fragile democracy
born of the Cedar Revolution has reached a moment of truth. If America does
not act now, this key front in the broader struggle between moderates and
extremists for the future of the Arab world will be lost -- and the
consequences will long be felt throughout the region. The radicals'
ambitions for overthrow move from Prime Minister Fouad Siniora in Lebanon
to President Mahmound Abbas in Ramallah to Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki
in Iraq. They are determined to achieve a clean sweep.

Anyone who has longed for a George Washington or Thomas Jefferson to emerge
and lead the fight for democracy in the Middle East should come to Beirut
and meet the patriots who have made incredible sacrifices for a free and
independent Lebanon.

There is the son of slain former prime minister Rafik Hariri. There is the
Cabinet minister whose husband was assassinated soon after becoming
president, and the minister of defense, who after 12 surgeries still bears
the scars of an assassination attempt. There is the mother of recently
slain 34-year-old Lebanese parliamentarian Pierre Gemayel, who said to me
simply: "We pay a high price for sharing what you believe in," and ask
yourself whether we are paying her the debt owed for our shared beliefs.

At the forefront of this struggle is Siniora, the prime minister of
Lebanon, who has stood up to a challenge that many extremists thought would
bring down his government. Weakened by this summer's war, Siniora is
effectively under siege by Hezbollah, which has brought hundreds of
thousands of demonstrators to the streets of Bierut and shut down the
government with the mass resignation of its ministers.

To provide the support he needs, we must recognize and adapt to the new
realities on the ground. We've lost 3,000 American lives and invested more
than $300 billion in hopes of forcibly birthing democracy in Iraq -- while
largely ignoring Lebanon, where democratic institutions already have a
foothold. Success there -- and across the Middle East -- ultimately depends
more on winning over civilian populations with basic goods and services
than defeating armies with sophisticated weapons and technology. New York's
street-wise mayor Fiorello LaGuardia proclaimed, "There is no Republican
way to clean a street." This is Politics 101: If you don't deliver
services, you don't get the support of the people.

Yet today, the forces of radicalism are doing a far better job than the
moderates in making the most basic connections with restive populations. In
Lebanon, Iran has seized the opportunity to win over the population by
channeling some $500 million in reconstruction funds through Hezbollah --
over twice as much as we have. In fact, Iran is doing more in rebuilding
Lebanon than Washington is doing in rebuilding New Orleans.

We must change this dynamic by dramatically increasing economic assistance
-- and pressing others in the international community to do the same -- and
ensuring that Lebanese see that they can count on their elected leaders.
And we must redouble our efforts to strengthen the Lebanese military, which
has earned the trust of the people but lacks the strength to confront
Hezbollah.

The key to Lebanon's future lies in getting Syria to truly respect Lebanese
sovereignty. The money and weapons that empower Hezbollah come primarily
through Syria, which uses proxies like Hezbollah to advance its hegemonic
designs. They must be convinced to change course, including by ensuring
that UN Resolution 1701 -- which again calls for the disarmament of
Hezbollah -- is fully implemented.

To test the Syrians directly, as the Baker-Hamilton Commission suggested,
Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and I met with President Bashar al-
Assad for more than two hours. The conversation confirmed my belief that
engagement with Syria could be useful in advancing our objectives across
the region. The Syrian leadership will act according to its own
self-interest. The challenge is to get Syria's leaders to make a strategic
decision to change direction, and shift their allegiance away from Iran.

This requires a package of incentives that will provide real benefits for
playing a more constructive role and disincentives that will undermine
their interests -- if not endanger their survival -- if they do not. These
would be implemented incrementally, based on verified facts on the ground.

This comprehensive approach, similar to the one used with North Korea and
Iran, must include the full participation of moderate Arab countries like
Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia -- which, like Syria, have largely Sunni
populations -- as well as Turkey. There is no guarantee that this approach
will save Lebanon and turn Syria into a positive force in the region -- but
the current policy only guarantees more of the same.

Lebanon teeters on the brink of disaster -- but its leaders refuse to
surrender. As Amine Gemayel, the former president of Lebanon, said in
explaining why he is running to replace his son in Parliament, "We keep
going. We keep fighting. We keep struggling." The question is whether we
will be a real partner in this struggle.

John F. Kerry is a US senator from Massachusetts.