[LCM Articles] ISN Security Watch: Perspectives - Lebanon, crisis, assassination

[Lieza Vincent]

ISN Security Watch

22 November 2006
Perspectives: Lebanon, crisis, assassination

Dear Readers,

Lebanon's political crisis has reached a dangerous point with the
assassination of anti-Syrian cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel, whose car was
ambushed on Tuesday by gunmen who opened fire with automatic weapons.

Gemayel, the son of former Lebanese president Amin Gemayel, was a scion of
Lebanon's most prominent Christian family.

The assassination comes as sectarian factions struggle for a stronghold over
Lebanon's political future - a struggle that has increased in the aftermath
of the Israel-Hizbollah war.

Some observers believe that Gemayel's assassination will lead pro-Syrian
political blocs and especially Hizbollah to back down from plans for mass
street protests, at least for the time being - particularly as Syria is
already under suspicion of having been involved in the assassination of
former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri in 2005.

Others believe that it could lead to the fall of the government of Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora if two more resignations are tendered. The political
crisis mounted earlier in November when Hizbollah and its Christian ally,
Michel Aoun, demanded greater representation in the Cabinet. Five ministers
resigned after talks failed, leaving the cabinet without its Shi'ite
representation.

There is also talk that the assassination could stymie apparent
rapprochement between Syria and the US, exemplified in the Iraq-Syria deal,
and that it could bolster US and European support for Siniora's government.

ISN Security Watch invites readers to contribute their opinions on the
potential consequences of Gemayel's assassination for the Lebanese political
crisis and the region in general.

Please submit your contribution to "Perspectives" by visiting our website, ISN
Security Watch <http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/perspectives.cfm>.
Contributions must be sent by 12pm CET on Monday, 27 November and must be no
longer than 400 words.

Reader contributions to "Perspectives" appear every Monday in our commentary
section.

Security Watch editors will not respond to potential contributors. Readers
may check the "Perspectives" column on Monday to see published
contributions. The editors reserve the right to edit submissions for
language and style.

All contributions to "Perspectives" are subject to republication under
our Creative
Commons license <http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/creativecommons.cfm>.

We look forward to hearing from you.

Best regards,

*The ISN Security Watch staff*

For more on the latest world events visit ISN Security
Watch<http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/>.
(c) ISN 2006


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