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<h1>ISN Security Watch</h1>
<p>22 November 2006</p>
<h1>Perspectives: Lebanon, crisis, assassination</h1>
<p>Dear Readers,
<p>Lebanon's political crisis has reached a dangerous point with the assassination of anti-Syrian cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel, whose car was ambushed on Tuesday by gunmen who opened fire with automatic weapons. </p>
<p>Gemayel, the son of former Lebanese president Amin Gemayel, was a scion of Lebanon's most prominent Christian family. </p>
<p>The assassination comes as sectarian factions struggle for a stronghold over Lebanon's political future - a struggle that has increased in the aftermath of the Israel-Hizbollah war. </p>
<p>Some observers believe that Gemayel's assassination will lead pro-Syrian political blocs and especially Hizbollah to back down from plans for mass street protests, at least for the time being - particularly as Syria is already under suspicion of having been involved in the assassination of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri in 2005.
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<p>Others believe that it could lead to the fall of the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora if two more resignations are tendered. The political crisis mounted earlier in November when Hizbollah and its Christian ally, Michel Aoun, demanded greater representation in the Cabinet. Five ministers resigned after talks failed, leaving the cabinet without its Shi'ite representation.
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<p>There is also talk that the assassination could stymie apparent rapprochement between Syria and the US, exemplified in the Iraq-Syria deal, and that it could bolster US and European support for Siniora's government. </p>
<p>ISN Security Watch invites readers to contribute their opinions on the potential consequences of Gemayel's assassination for the Lebanese political crisis and the region in general. </p>
<p>Please submit your contribution to "Perspectives" by visiting our website, <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/perspectives.cfm" target="_blank">ISN Security Watch
</a>. Contributions must be sent by 12pm CET on Monday, 27 November and must be no longer than 400 words. </p>
<p>Reader contributions to "Perspectives" appear every Monday in our commentary section.<br><br>Security Watch editors will not respond to potential contributors. Readers may check the "Perspectives" column on Monday to see published contributions. The editors reserve the right to edit submissions for language and style.
<p>All contributions to "Perspectives" are subject to republication under our <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/creativecommons.cfm" target="_blank">
Creative Commons license</a>.
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<p>We look forward to hearing from you.</p>
<p>Best regards,</p>
<p><strong>The ISN Security Watch staff</strong></p>
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<p>For more on the latest world events visit <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/" target="_blank">ISN Security Watch</a>. © ISN 2006 </p>
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