[LCM Articles] Patrick Seale: To survive, Bashar Assad will have to fight his family

[Loai Naamani]

Monday, October 31, 2005

To survive, Bashar Assad will have to fight his family 

By Patrick Seale 

The political storm caused by the Mehlis report into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has, paradoxically,
provided Syria's President Bashar Assad with a golden opportunity. For the first time since he came to power in 2000, he has a
unique chance to impose his authority on rival power centers and emerge as the real ruler of Syria. 

In their different ways, both the international community and his own public are urging him to act. They are encouraging him to
carry out a "corrective movement" against undisciplined barons of his regime, including men close to him, similar to the palace coup
which brought his late father, Hafez Assad, to power in 1970. The choice before Assad is clear: either continue to claim that Syria
is innocent of the murder of Hariri and that the charges in the Mehlis report are unsound and politically motivated or recognize
that mistakes have been made and carry out a purge of the top security officials named in the report. 

The first course would inevitably condemn the regime to international isolation and to wide-ranging sanctions, including the
freezing of overseas assets of its leading members, a travel ban, and possibly even the issue of international arrest warrants. A
destabilized Syria would then be vulnerable to attempts at "regime change" by its enemies. 

In contrast, the second course would stabilize the country and the wider region, and win Assad immediate domestic and international
support. But to manage a crisis of such unprecedented proportions, Assad would need to display unusual qualities of courage and
political acumen. This is the most difficult moment in the president's career. Moreover, he is under pressure to act fast. It is
likely that the window of opportunity will be open for only the next few weeks. The United Nations has given Mehlis until December
15 to complete his investigations and submit a more detailed report. Within this limited time-frame, Assad will enjoy a certain
freedom of maneuver, largely for the following reasons: 

First, although the Mehlis report confirmed his quarrel with Hariri, it did not suggest that he was personally implicated in the
murder; second, members of the Security Council have asked Syria to conduct its own investigation into the murder, which Damascus
has, in fact, now agreed to do so. This is a clear signal from the international community urging Assad to act; third, tens of
thousands of people came out on the streets of Damascus, Aleppo and other cities last week in support of Assad. Although it was not
clear whether the demonstrations were organized by the security services, the Baath Party or Assad's own men, the message was clear.
The public wants the president to show strength to protect the country from enemies abroad and wild men at home; fourth, even the
so-called "patriotic opposition" is ready to back the president against external, largely American, pressures, if he undertakes to
clean up corruption and crime, rein in the security services, and give more space to civil rights activists; and fifth, by far the
most important factor in Assad's favor is the support he appears to enjoy from the commanders of Syria's armored and mechanized
divisions, and from the elite Republican Guard. Among staunch Assad loyalists, for example, is Manaf Tlass, a prominent officer in
the Republican Guard, and the son of the former long-serving Defense Minister Mustafa Tlass. 

The Syrian Army is a highly secretive organization. The names of the most influential and powerful officers are largely unknown. But
the army remains the guardian of the state's legitimacy. Its chiefs were not implicated in the Mehlis report. They obeyed the
political leadership in withdrawing from Lebanon. Today, they have a vital role in defending the country's institutions, including
the presidency itself. 

Observers of the Syrian scene believe that the backing of these men could allow Assad to face down his younger brother, Maher, who
commands a powerful praetorian unit, the 4th Corps, which controls the immediate approaches to the capital. If a confrontation were
to occur between the brothers, it would be a replay of the clash in 1984 between Assad and his younger brother Rifaat, who at the
time also commanded a powerful unit known as the Defense Companies. That confrontation ended in Hafez Assad's triumph and Rifaat's
eventual exile. 

This is a moment of great fluidity in Syrian affairs. The present situation is untenable. The country is expecting some sort of a
showdown between rival forces. In these difficult times, the inclination is to keep one's head down and not take sides. For example,
leading luminaries of the Baath Party have not spoken. The new Regional Command formed after the party congress last summer has so
far not issued a statement in support of Assad, who is the party's secretary-general. 

Something of a mystery also surrounds the position of Foreign Minister Farouk Sharaa. Rumor has it that he has not been seen at the
office recently. A meeting he was due to have in New York last week with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan was cancelled. The Mehlis
report accused him of providing false information. 

It is also no secret that Syria's powerful security and intelligence services are deeply divided. They are at the center of the
Hariri scandal. The president's brother-in-law, General Assef Shawkat, head of military intelligence, was named in the report. The
recent suicide or killing of Minister of Interior Ghazi Kanaan points to a situation of extreme tension between the strongmen of the
regime. 

Assad may derive small comfort from the gap in American and French positions regarding Syria. The prime French interest would seem
to be to arrive at the truth concerning Hariri's murder and to protect Lebanon from further Syrian interference. France is cautious
about endorsing regime change, in spite of President Jacques Chirac's apparent personal animus against Assad. Nor does France share
Washington's wider agenda use the Hariri murder to pressure Syria into changing its regional policies.  

In particular, the Bush administration would like Syria to prevent any help reaching the Iraqi insurgents across its border. It
would like to break Syria's alliance with both Iran and Hizbullah. And it would like Syria to end its support for radical
Palestinian factions.  

Looking beyond the outrage over the Hariri murder, most Syrians would argue that a grave injustice is being done to their country.
Israel appears to enjoy complete immunity, while the United States and Britain are guilty of waging an illegal war in Iraq. Why is
Syria alone in the dock? Is there a more flagrant example of international double standards than this? 

Patrick Seale, a veteran Middle East analyst, wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10
<http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=19701> &categ_id=5&article_id=19701

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