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<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><b><font size=2 color="#9c0b0b"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#9C0B0B;
font-weight:bold'>Monday, October 31, 2005</span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><b><font size=3 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>To survive, Bashar Assad will have to fight his family</span></font></b><b><font
color="#000066" face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana;color:#000066;
font-weight:bold'> </span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><b><font size=2 color="#000066"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#000066;
font-weight:bold'>By Patrick Seale </span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>The
political storm caused by the Mehlis report into the assassination of former
Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has, paradoxically, provided Syria's President
Bashar Assad with a golden opportunity. For the first time since he came to
power in 2000, he has a unique chance to impose his authority on rival power
centers and emerge as the real ruler of Syria. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>In
their different ways, both the international community and his own public are urging
him to act. They are encouraging him to carry out a "corrective
movement" against undisciplined barons of his regime, including men close
to him, similar to the palace coup which brought his late father, Hafez Assad,
to power in 1970. The choice before Assad is clear: either continue to claim
that Syria is innocent of the murder of Hariri and that the charges in the
Mehlis report are unsound and politically motivated or recognize that mistakes
have been made and carry out a purge of the top security officials named in the
report. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>The
first course would inevitably condemn the regime to international isolation and
to wide-ranging sanctions, including the freezing of overseas assets of its
leading members, a travel ban, and possibly even the issue of international
arrest warrants. A destabilized Syria would then be vulnerable to attempts at
"regime change" by its enemies. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>In
contrast, the second course would stabilize the country and the wider region,
and win Assad immediate domestic and international support. But to manage a
crisis of such unprecedented proportions, Assad would need to display unusual
qualities of courage and political acumen. This is the most difficult moment in
the president's career. Moreover, he is under pressure to act fast. It is
likely that the window of opportunity will be open for only the next few weeks.
The United Nations has given Mehlis until December 15 to complete his
investigations and submit a more detailed report. Within this limited
time-frame, Assad will enjoy a certain freedom of maneuver, largely for the
following reasons: </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>First,
although the Mehlis report confirmed his quarrel with Hariri, it did not
suggest that he was personally implicated in the murder; second, members of the
Security Council have asked Syria to conduct its own investigation into the
murder, which Damascus has, in fact, now agreed to do so. This is a clear
signal from the international community urging Assad to act; third, tens of
thousands of people came out on the streets of Damascus, Aleppo and other
cities last week in support of Assad. Although it was not clear whether the
demonstrations were organized by the security services, the Baath Party or
Assad's own men, the message was clear. The public wants the president to show
strength to protect the country from enemies abroad and wild men at home;
fourth, even the so-called "patriotic opposition" is ready to back
the president against external, largely American, pressures, if he undertakes
to clean up corruption and crime, rein in the security services, and give more
space to civil rights activists; and fifth, by far the most important factor in
Assad's favor is the support he appears to enjoy from the commanders of Syria's
armored and mechanized divisions, and from the elite Republican Guard. Among
staunch Assad loyalists, for example, is Manaf Tlass, a prominent officer in
the Republican Guard, and the son of the former long-serving Defense Minister
Mustafa Tlass. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>The
Syrian Army is a highly secretive organization. The names of the most
influential and powerful officers are largely unknown. But the army remains the
guardian of the state's legitimacy. Its chiefs were not implicated in the
Mehlis report. They obeyed the political leadership in withdrawing from
Lebanon. Today, they have a vital role in defending the country's institutions,
including the presidency itself. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>Observers
of the Syrian scene believe that the backing of these men could allow Assad to
face down his younger brother, Maher, who commands a powerful praetorian unit,
the 4th Corps, which controls the immediate approaches to the capital. If a
confrontation were to occur between the brothers, it would be a replay of the
clash in 1984 between Assad and his younger brother Rifaat, who at the time
also commanded a powerful unit known as the Defense Companies. That
confrontation ended in Hafez Assad's triumph and Rifaat's eventual exile. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>This
is a moment of great fluidity in Syrian affairs. The present situation is
untenable. The country is expecting some sort of a showdown between rival
forces. In these difficult times, the inclination is to keep one's head down
and not take sides. For example, leading luminaries of the Baath Party have not
spoken. The new Regional Command formed after the party congress last summer
has so far not issued a statement in support of Assad, who is the party's
secretary-general. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>Something
of a mystery also surrounds the position of Foreign Minister Farouk Sharaa.
Rumor has it that he has not been seen at the office recently. A meeting he was
due to have in New York last week with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan was
cancelled. The Mehlis report accused him of providing false information. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>It
is also no secret that Syria's powerful security and intelligence services are
deeply divided. They are at the center of the Hariri scandal. The president's
brother-in-law, General Assef Shawkat, head of military intelligence, was named
in the report. The recent suicide or killing of Minister of Interior Ghazi
Kanaan points to a situation of extreme tension between the strongmen of the
regime. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>Assad
may derive small comfort from the gap in American and French positions
regarding Syria. The prime French interest would seem to be to arrive at the
truth concerning Hariri's murder and to protect Lebanon from further Syrian
interference. France is cautious about endorsing regime change, in spite of
President Jacques Chirac's apparent personal animus against Assad. Nor does
France share Washington's wider agenda use the Hariri murder to pressure Syria
into changing its regional policies. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>In
particular, the Bush administration would like Syria to prevent any help
reaching the Iraqi insurgents across its border. It would like to break Syria's
alliance with both Iran and Hizbullah. And it would like Syria to end its
support for radical Palestinian factions. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A'>Looking
beyond the outrage over the Hariri murder, most Syrians would argue that a
grave injustice is being done to their country. Israel appears to enjoy
complete immunity, while the United States and Britain are guilty of waging an
illegal war in Iraq. Why is Syria alone in the dock? Is there a more flagrant
example of international double standards than this? </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><i><font size=2 color="#2a2a2a" face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:bold;
font-style:italic'>Patrick Seale</span></font></i></b><i><font size=2
color="#2a2a2a" face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:#2A2A2A;font-style:italic'>, a veteran Middle East analyst, wrote this
commentary for <b><span style='font-weight:bold'>THE DAILY STAR.</span></b></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><a
href="http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=19701">http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=19701</a></span></font></p>
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