[LCM Articles] The same old sectarian system-but without the Syrians

Fri May 27 13:00:40 EDT 2005

The same old sectarian system-but without the Syrians

May 26th 2005
>From The Economist print edition

Lebanon's first parliamentary elections since Syria relaxed its military grip on the country begin this weekend. Can the Lebanese choose their leaders by merit rather than religious affiliation? Not yet-but quite a lot of them want to start trying

            AP 

IN THE game of backgammon, the aim is to move your pieces past your opponent, who can block you by massing his own chips in their path. Until last month, Syria had much this effect on Lebanon, its troops and influence trapping politics inside a single quadrant of the country's intricate board. Most of Syria's chips have now been swept away by a mix of people power and outside pressure. Yet to many Lebanese, their politics still looks blocked. Most of the obstacles are sectarian. 

The parliamentary elections which begin on Sunday May 29th should bring big gains to what Lebanese have come to call "the opposition". Public anger against an establishment held in place by Syrian power since the end of Lebanon's long civil war 15 years ago still simmers. It boiled over in the wake of the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the country's most popular politician, in February. Huge street demonstrations brought down the government, forced the departure of hated security chiefs, and unleashed a wave of euphoria that crossed all the country's sects. It particularly touched the once-dominant Maronite Christian minority, which has felt marginalised since the war.

It is widely predicted that when the last of four rounds of voting ends in a month, the opposition will have captured up to 80 of the legislature's 128 seats. Fearing humiliation, some of Syria's staunchest allies have chosen not to run. Other candidates have been dropped from the lists of factions that no longer need to curry favour with Damascus by taking them on board. And some parties which previously faced Syrian-inspired harassment, such as the Lebanese Forces, which started as a wartime Christian militia, are entering the fray after a long absence. One notable new contender is Michel Aoun, a maverick former army commander who lost a bid to oust Syria during the war, and has now staged a dramatic return after years in exile. 

But troubles persist. With Syria gone and its local allies in retreat, the opposition no longer has a unifying foe to oppose. The sectarian cracks that always bedevil Lebanese politics (in a country with 18 officially recognised "confessions") have appeared in its ranks. This is hardly surprising, since Lebanese elections are run on a quota system that allots seats by sect. Muslims complain that Christians are given half the seats even though they represent less than 40% of the population. Christians reply that the way the country's 14 electoral districts are drawn dilutes their voice. Since most "Christian" seats happen to fall in majority-Muslim areas, it is in effect Muslims who choose the Christians' MPs. 

Another problem is that, because voters tend to back lists of candidates in their districts, rather than individuals, the power of choice goes as much to the political chieftains who make alliances and draw up such lists as it does to the voters. In Beirut, where the voting begins, nine out of 19 seats have already been won by default. Potential challengers have judged it useless to contest the list sponsored by Mr Hariri's 35-year-old son Saad, who has inherited not only an immense fortune and the loyalty of much of the Sunni Muslim community but also the cachet of his father's "martyrdom". In the Shia-dominated south and east of the country, meanwhile, an alliance between the two main Shia parties, Hizbullah and Amal, looks set once again to shut out potential rivals. 

The system makes for peculiar alliances. One candidate on Mr Hariri's Beirut list, for example, is Solange Gemayel, the widow of Bashir Gemayel, who founded the Lebanese Forces and was briefly the country's president before being assassinated in 1982 following the ruinous siege of largely Muslim West Beirut by Israel, which Mr Gemayel encouraged. The Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt, whose fighters fought vicious battles against Christian forces in the war, has included George Adwan, who once led a radical right-wing Maronite militia, on his list in the Druze-dominated Shouf region. Hizbullah, generally seen as pro-Syrian (and pro-Iranian), is running candidates on both Mr Hariri's and Mr Jumblatt's lists.

This stitching up of lists has proved a particular obstacle to Mr Aoun. His Free Patriotic Movement says it is the arch-opponent of Syria and a nationalist party that aims to overthrow what Mr Aoun condemns as the country's "feudalistic" political system. The large, cheering crowds that greeted his return from exile earlier this month proved the emotive power of such ideas. But, having failed to reach a deal with the Hariri and Jumblatt blocks, which form the core of the opposition, the newcomer now faces the ironic choice of allying in some districts with pro-Syrian politicians and local clan leaders. 

Syria goes, the old order stays
Not surprisingly, all this pre-electoral horse-trading has dismayed many Lebanese. Turnout may be low. Not only are all too many old faces likely to remain in parliament-one expert reckons at most 30% of seats will change hands-but some of the new ones bring back ugly old memories. The fear is that while Lebanon's "Cedar revolution" may have succeeded in getting Syria out, it has yet to junk the country's own discredited order. 

This is not the only fear. Lebanon must grapple with such challenges as a $33 billion national debt (among the largest in the world, relative to GDP) and how to disarm Hizbullah's militia, as demanded by the United Nations Security Council. (Hizbullah bragged this week that it had, and would keep, 12,000 rockets capable of reaching all of northern Israel.) In the longer run, too, as polls show, most Lebanese would dearly like to see the country move from closed confessionalism to a merit-based system, where democracy by proportional representation would be balanced by protection of minority rights.

Luckily, Lebanon's political class no longer seems immune to such popular expectations. The opposition's electoral alliances can be called opportunistic but they also reflect a will to compromise, share power and push for reform. Candidates of all stripes have sounded apologetic in public, vowing to alter the system once they are voted in. "We politicians will have a serious problem if we fail to recognise the message of the 14th of March," says Mr Hariri, referring to a protest that brought a million Lebanese to the streets of Beirut, clamouring for change.
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