<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2900.2627" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff><STRONG><FONT face=Verdana size=4>The same old sectarian
system—but without the Syrians<BR></FONT></STRONG><FONT face=Verdana
color=#999999 size=-2>
<DIV>May 26th 2005<BR>From The Economist print edition</DIV>
<DIV></FONT><BR><BR><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"
size=-1><B>Lebanon’s first parliamentary elections since Syria relaxed its
military grip on the country begin this weekend. Can the Lebanese choose their
leaders by merit rather than religious affiliation? Not yet—but quite a lot of
them want to start trying</B></FONT><BR><BR clear=all>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=404 align=center border=0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD vAlign=top>
<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 align=right border=0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD vAlign=top align=right><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"
color=#999999 size=-2>AP</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD vAlign=bottom><IMG height=275 alt=AP
src="http://www.economist.com/images/ga/2005w22/Lebanon.jpg" width=400
border=0></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD vAlign=top>
<P><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"
size=-1><B></B></FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR><!--back--></DIV>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>IN THE game of
backgammon, the aim is to move your pieces past your opponent, who can block you
by massing his own chips in their path. Until last month, Syria had much this
effect on Lebanon, its troops and influence trapping politics inside a single
quadrant of the country’s intricate board. Most of Syria’s chips have now been
swept away by a mix of people power and outside pressure. Yet to many Lebanese,
their politics still looks blocked. Most of the obstacles are sectarian.
</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>The parliamentary
elections which begin on Sunday May 29th should bring big gains to what Lebanese
have come to call “the opposition”. Public anger against an establishment held
in place by Syrian power since the end of Lebanon’s long civil war 15 years ago
still simmers. It boiled over in the wake of the assassination of Rafik Hariri,
the country’s most popular politician, in February. Huge street demonstrations
brought down the government, forced the departure of hated security chiefs, and
unleashed a wave of euphoria that crossed all the country’s sects. It
particularly touched the once-dominant Maronite Christian minority, which has
felt marginalised since the
war.</FONT></P><CF_FLOATINGCONTENT></CF_FLOATINGCONTENT>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>It is widely predicted
that when the last of four rounds of voting ends in a month, the opposition will
have captured up to 80 of the legislature’s 128 seats. Fearing humiliation, some
of Syria’s staunchest allies have chosen not to run. Other candidates have been
dropped from the lists of factions that no longer need to curry favour with
Damascus by taking them on board. And some parties which previously faced
Syrian-inspired harassment, such as the Lebanese Forces, which started as a
wartime Christian militia, are entering the fray after a long absence. One
notable new contender is Michel Aoun, a maverick former army commander who lost
a bid to oust Syria during the war, and has now staged a dramatic return after
years in exile. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>But troubles persist.
With Syria gone and its local allies in retreat, the opposition no longer has a
unifying foe to oppose. The sectarian cracks that always bedevil Lebanese
politics (in a country with 18 officially recognised “confessions”) have
appeared in its ranks. This is hardly surprising, since Lebanese elections are
run on a quota system that allots seats by sect. Muslims complain that
Christians are given half the seats even though they represent less than 40% of
the population. Christians reply that the way the country’s 14 electoral
districts are drawn dilutes their voice. Since most “Christian” seats happen to
fall in majority-Muslim areas, it is in effect Muslims who choose the
Christians’ MPs. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>Another problem is that,
because voters tend to back lists of candidates in their districts, rather than
individuals, the power of choice goes as much to the political chieftains who
make alliances and draw up such lists as it does to the voters. In Beirut, where
the voting begins, nine out of 19 seats have already been won by default.
Potential challengers have judged it useless to contest the list sponsored by Mr
Hariri’s 35-year-old son Saad, who has inherited not only an immense fortune and
the loyalty of much of the Sunni Muslim community but also the cachet of his
father’s “martyrdom”. In the Shia-dominated south and east of the country,
meanwhile, an alliance between the two main Shia parties, Hizbullah and Amal,
looks set once again to shut out potential rivals. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>The system makes for
peculiar alliances. One candidate on Mr Hariri’s Beirut list, for example, is
Solange Gemayel, the widow of Bashir Gemayel, who founded the Lebanese Forces
and was briefly the country’s president before being assassinated in 1982
following the ruinous siege of largely Muslim West Beirut by Israel, which Mr
Gemayel encouraged. The Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt, whose fighters fought
vicious battles against Christian forces in the war, has included George Adwan,
who once led a radical right-wing Maronite militia, on his list in the
Druze-dominated Shouf region. Hizbullah, generally seen as pro-Syrian (and
pro-Iranian), is running candidates on both Mr Hariri’s and Mr Jumblatt’s
lists.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>This stitching up of
lists has proved a particular obstacle to Mr Aoun. His Free Patriotic Movement
says it is the arch-opponent of Syria and a nationalist party that aims to
overthrow what Mr Aoun condemns as the country’s “feudalistic” political system.
The large, cheering crowds that greeted his return from exile earlier this month
proved the emotive power of such ideas. But, having failed to reach a deal with
the Hariri and Jumblatt blocks, which form the core of the opposition, the
newcomer now faces the ironic choice of allying in some districts with
pro-Syrian politicians and local clan leaders. </FONT></P><BR>
<DIV><FONT face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><B><A
name=syria_goes,_the_old_order_stays>Syria goes, the old order
stays</A></B></FONT></DIV>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>Not surprisingly, all
this pre-electoral horse-trading has dismayed many Lebanese. Turnout may be low.
Not only are all too many old faces likely to remain in parliament—one expert
reckons at most 30% of seats will change hands—but some of the new ones bring
back ugly old memories. The fear is that while Lebanon’s “Cedar revolution” may
have succeeded in getting Syria out, it has yet to junk the country’s own
discredited order. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>This is not the only
fear. Lebanon must grapple with such challenges as a $33 billion national debt
(among the largest in the world, relative to GDP) and how to disarm Hizbullah’s
militia, as demanded by the United Nations Security Council. (Hizbullah bragged
this week that it had, and would keep, 12,000 rockets capable of reaching all of
northern Israel.) In the longer run, too, as polls show, most Lebanese would
dearly like to see the country move from closed confessionalism to a merit-based
system, where democracy by proportional representation would be balanced by
protection of minority rights.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>Luckily, Lebanon’s
political class no longer seems immune to such popular expectations. The
opposition’s electoral alliances can be called opportunistic but they also
reflect a will to compromise, share power and push for reform. Candidates of all
stripes have sounded apologetic in public, vowing to alter the system once they
are voted in. “We politicians will have a serious problem if we fail to
recognise the message of the 14th of March,” says Mr Hariri, referring to a
protest that brought a million Lebanese to the streets of Beirut, clamouring for
change.</FONT></P></BODY></HTML>