[LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian Protestors...

[Philippe Charles Saad]

Ayah,
Thanx for the message, The argument of jad is somehow valid if the area he drew
was accurate, but however if you look at the videos on savelebanon.org you can
see that the crowd protesting today extended beyond the green outline (dotted
and continuous line) that Jad drew. In fact, the crowd today was gathered all
round the officially called "Martyr's square" and even extending on the port
road above the Charles Helou station and on the lower port road.
So please send to jad the plan where i outlined in red the extension of
martyr's
square  and ask him to recalculate on Autocad the area of the protest against
the military presence of syria.
p


Quoting Ayah Bdeir <ayah at MIT.EDU>:

> Hi Philippe,
> 
> I received this email a while ago, and there was a debate between architects
> and urban planners about the calculations. A friend of mine Jad replied with
> his own calculations and analysis, which I think is pretty valid.
> 
> -Ayah
> 
> Jad's reply
> 
> "I wanted to double check the info you sent me because I could barely
> believe that the protest I saw on TV only had 350.000 people.
> 
> Your friend claims he is a map-person... well, I happen to be an urban
> planner.
> I got the AutoCAD plans I have of Beirut city center. And I made some
> measurements...
> 
> Attached is a photo-print of my computer screen where you can see the
> results of the area-measurements.
> 
> 1- In yellow the area of the Hezbollah protest
> 2- In green the opposition protest
> 3- In full lines the areas that were actually full with people in peak
> moments of both protests (green full line for the opposition, yellow full
> line for Hezbollah).
> 4- In dotted lines (both colors), I drew a Maximum area, basically, the
> exaggerated scenarios that both sides could eventually claim...
> 
> FACTS:
> 
> 1- Area Hezbollah: 72.000m²
> Maximum; 87.000m²
> 
> 2- Area opposition: 20.000m²
> Maximum: 38.000m²
> 
> CALCULATIONS:
> 
> 1- Protest Hezbollah, counting 4 people/m² (in deed that is dense):
> 72 x 4= 288.000 people
> Max: 87 x 4= 348.000 people
> 
> 2- Protest opposition, same counting:
> 20 x 4= 80.000 people
> Max: 38 x 4= 152.000 people
> 
> CONCLUSION:
> 
> 1- Annahar is biased, it is exact when it comes to Hezbollah, and it
> exaggerates when it comes to the opposition
> 
> 2- In the worst of cases for the opposition, there would be 4.5 times more
> people in the Hezbollah protest than in theirs.
> 
> In the best of cases, there will be twice as much in Hezbollah-protest than
> in theirs.
> 
> SYNTHESIS:
> 
> Despite the small inexactitudes of the delineated areas and the densities
> and who participated etc, etc... There is AT THE VERY LEAST, half the
> Lebanese that are not aligned with the opposition. That can be for different
> reason.
> I believe that the major reason is that a lot of Lebanese that would like to
> see Syria out, do not TRUST the opposition and still believe that the
> opposition wants to substitute Syrian influence with USA influence.
> 
> So if you are really concerned about the unity of the Lebanese, and if you
> are really democratic (believe in the rule of the majorities), stop
> demeaning the others and stop accusing them of ignorance and treason and
> propose constructive solutions on how to convey the beliefs that we are
> fighting for without the shadow of a doubt. Giving clear messages on what we
> stand for and speak with one voice so that we can unite the Lebanese behind
> our good cause: FREEDOM, but also JUSTICE (i.e., no giving-in against the
> Israeli and their constant rape of the rights of Palestinians, Syrians,
> Lebanese, etc... thus no peace with Israel till it accepts a fair and
> comprehensive peace).
> 
> 
> 
>  
> 
> - Ayah
> 
>                              -    -
> 
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> 
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> 
>           ‘             ‘  -         -   ‘             ‘
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>                '  ,  ,  ,  ,   - - -   ,   ,   ,   ‘  
> 
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>             ‘  ,         ,   ‘     ‘ ,           , ‘     
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> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU
> [mailto:lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU] On Behalf Of Philippe Charles Saad
> Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 12:40 PM
> To: lebanon-articles at mit.edu
> Subject: [LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian
> Protestors...
> 
> check this...
> 
> 
> >>Dear all,
> >>When it comes to maps, you got to ask the Mapman   !
> >>I made some work on Beirut Satellite Maps (see the attached
> >>picture). I
> >>have to find out the size of the riadh solh square. I drew an
> >>approximate area (red polygon) over the satellite map.
> >>
> >>I added to the polygon all the small streets; I also included the 2
> >>buildings in the middle of the square.  The total area came out
> >>less
> >>then 88,000 m2 (according to Nahar the area 78,000m2).
> >>
> >>If we consider that there were 4 people in each 1m X 1m (they
> >>should be
> >>thin people!) then the total amount could have reached to 352,000.
> >>This
> >>number includes the syrians and palestinians.
> >>
> >>On Monday, according to many journalists there was at least 250,000
> >>in
> >>Freedom square.
> >>
> >>So if we compare this number with what LebGov sources said (1.5
> >>million), we can laugh......
> >>
> >>Cheers
> >>
> >>Long Live FREE Lebanon  !
> >>
> 
> 
> ----- End forwarded message -----
> 
> 
> 
> 



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