[LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian Protestors...

[Ayah Bdeir]

Hi Philippe,

I received this email a while ago, and there was a debate between architects
and urban planners about the calculations. A friend of mine Jad replied with
his own calculations and analysis, which I think is pretty valid.

-Ayah

Jad's reply

"I wanted to double check the info you sent me because I could barely
believe that the protest I saw on TV only had 350.000 people.

Your friend claims he is a map-person... well, I happen to be an urban
planner.
I got the AutoCAD plans I have of Beirut city center. And I made some
measurements...

Attached is a photo-print of my computer screen where you can see the
results of the area-measurements.

1- In yellow the area of the Hezbollah protest
2- In green the opposition protest
3- In full lines the areas that were actually full with people in peak
moments of both protests (green full line for the opposition, yellow full
line for Hezbollah).
4- In dotted lines (both colors), I drew a Maximum area, basically, the
exaggerated scenarios that both sides could eventually claim...

FACTS:

1- Area Hezbollah: 72.000m²
Maximum; 87.000m²

2- Area opposition: 20.000m²
Maximum: 38.000m²

CALCULATIONS:

1- Protest Hezbollah, counting 4 people/m² (in deed that is dense):
72 x 4= 288.000 people
Max: 87 x 4= 348.000 people

2- Protest opposition, same counting:
20 x 4= 80.000 people
Max: 38 x 4= 152.000 people

CONCLUSION:

1- Annahar is biased, it is exact when it comes to Hezbollah, and it
exaggerates when it comes to the opposition

2- In the worst of cases for the opposition, there would be 4.5 times more
people in the Hezbollah protest than in theirs.

In the best of cases, there will be twice as much in Hezbollah-protest than
in theirs.

SYNTHESIS:

Despite the small inexactitudes of the delineated areas and the densities
and who participated etc, etc... There is AT THE VERY LEAST, half the
Lebanese that are not aligned with the opposition. That can be for different
reason.
I believe that the major reason is that a lot of Lebanese that would like to
see Syria out, do not TRUST the opposition and still believe that the
opposition wants to substitute Syrian influence with USA influence.

So if you are really concerned about the unity of the Lebanese, and if you
are really democratic (believe in the rule of the majorities), stop
demeaning the others and stop accusing them of ignorance and treason and
propose constructive solutions on how to convey the beliefs that we are
fighting for without the shadow of a doubt. Giving clear messages on what we
stand for and speak with one voice so that we can unite the Lebanese behind
our good cause: FREEDOM, but also JUSTICE (i.e., no giving-in against the
Israeli and their constant rape of the rights of Palestinians, Syrians,
Lebanese, etc... thus no peace with Israel till it accepts a fair and
comprehensive peace).



 

- Ayah

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-----Original Message-----
From: lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU
[mailto:lebanon-articles-bounces at MIT.EDU] On Behalf Of Philippe Charles Saad
Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 12:40 PM
To: lebanon-articles at mit.edu
Subject: [LCM Articles] Calculation of the number of Pro-Syrian
Protestors...

check this...


>>Dear all,
>>When it comes to maps, you got to ask the Mapman   !
>>I made some work on Beirut Satellite Maps (see the attached
>>picture). I
>>have to find out the size of the riadh solh square. I drew an
>>approximate area (red polygon) over the satellite map.
>>
>>I added to the polygon all the small streets; I also included the 2
>>buildings in the middle of the square.  The total area came out
>>less
>>then 88,000 m2 (according to Nahar the area 78,000m2).
>>
>>If we consider that there were 4 people in each 1m X 1m (they
>>should be
>>thin people!) then the total amount could have reached to 352,000.
>>This
>>number includes the syrians and palestinians.
>>
>>On Monday, according to many journalists there was at least 250,000
>>in
>>Freedom square.
>>
>>So if we compare this number with what LebGov sources said (1.5
>>million), we can laugh......
>>
>>Cheers
>>
>>Long Live FREE Lebanon  !
>>


----- End forwarded message -----



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