[Env seminars] Alternative Fuel Based Transportation-J.Struben (MIT) THURSDAY, DEC 15

[Karen Gibson]

Identifying transition challenges for an alternative fuel based 
transportation system

Jeroen Struben
System Dynamics Group, Sloan School of Management
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Thursday, December 15
12:00 - 1:30 pm
E40-496


ABSTRACT
Current fossil fuel consumption and pollutant emissions from vehicles 
demonstrate the unsustainability of our transportation system. In 
response to this significant efforts to develop and diffuse 
alternative-powered vehicles are underway, but to date, attempts to 
stimulate adoption have been largely ineffective. Creating a 
self-sustaining market for alternative fuel vehicles is complex due to 
the size and impact of the vehicle fleet, the critical role of 
complementary resources such as fueling and maintenance infrastructure, 
the diversity of stakeholders, large upfront product development and 
infrastructure investment requirements, scale and scope economies, and 
learning by doing and by research & development.

These feedbacks suggest tremendous potential for the cost reductions 
and functionality improvements needed for broad deployment of 
technologies that can transform the transportation system.  However, in 
the short run these same feedbacks give advantage to incumbent 
technologies and prevent the development of alternatives.
This presentation discusses modeling work in progress examining the 
diffusion dynamics for and competition among ICE, hydrogen, hybrid, and 
other vehicle platforms. We explore the co-evolutionary interdependence 
between alternative fuel vehicle demand and the requisite refueling 
infrastructure. The analysis is based on a dynamic, spatially-explicit 
behavioral model.  The model captures consumer and industry 
decision-making processes in a behaviorally realistic way, including 
drivers’ willingness to go out of their way to find fuel and their 
propensity to top-off their tanks as a hedge against uncertainty in 
fuel availability.   Similarly, the decision by energy distributors to 
enter and exit the market for alternative fuels, and their location 
decisions, are explicit and endogenous.

Understanding the dynamic interplay of these factors is critical for 
effectively stimulating critical collaborative efforts, breaking 
through investment barriers and designing effective policies. We 
discuss initial insights and policy implications. Model extensions to 
consider other factors that contribute to the dynamic complexity of 
market formation are discussed.


Cookies and cider will be provided.


Sponsored by the Laboratory for Energy and the Environment.


Karen  L. Gibson
Program Assistant
MIT Laboratory For Energy and the Environment
77 Massachusetts Avenue, E40-469
(1 Amherst St., E40-469 - for DHL and FedEx)
Cambridge, MA 02139  USA
Tel:  1 (617) 258-6368; Fax:  1 (617) 258-6590
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