[LCM Articles] Restarting the 34 Day War

[Abdallah Jabbour]

*By Mike Whitney *

"*I prefer the most unfair peace to the most righteous war*" - *Cicero *

*08/22/06 "**Information Clearing House*<http://informationclearinghouse.info/>
* " - -- *Israel is in a state of post-war trauma. Its 34 day pounding of
Lebanon achieved none of the stated goals and has left the public furious at
the incompetence of the Olmert government. 118 soldiers were killed in the
conflict and Israel's celebrated "power of deterrents" has been smashed to
smithereens. Nothing was gained. In the north, industry was brought to a
complete standstill while the local people were shunted off to fallout
shelters for weeks on end.

What for?

Hezbollah hasn't been "disarmed" and the 2 captured Israeli soldiers haven't
been returned. The whole travesty was a dead loss.

The war ended as abruptly as it started. It was suddenly called off when
Olmert couldn't bear the rising death-toll, a fact that was not lost on
Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah said from the very beginning
that the only way to beat Israel was by "killing soldiers and destroying
weapons". Olmert's retreat just proves that that Nasrallah was right.

Kenneth Besig summarized the feelings of many Israelis in his comments in
the Jerusalem Post:

"Fewer than 5,000 poorly-armed Hezbollah terrorists stood off the mighty IDF
for over a month. An Islamic terrorist gang with no tanks, no artillery, no
fighter jets, no attack helicopters, and just a few RPG's and rifles held to
a standstill nearly 30,000 crack IDF troops with the finest tanks, the best
artillery, the fastest and most advanced fighter-jets and attack helicopters
in the world. And they can still empty our northern communities with their
rockets whenever they want. If that is not a victory, then the word has no
meaning."

Besig may be wrong when he calls Hezbollah "terrorists", but many Israelis
agree with his overall analysis. Israel may have decimated Lebanon, but no
one believes they won the war.

Since the ceasefire began, the recriminations and finger-pointing have only
gotten worse. The daily gnashing-of-teeth in the media has reached a
crescendo with every major newspaper calling for the resignations of Olmert,
Defense Minister Peretz and "George Armstrong" Halutz. Disgruntled
reservists are flocking to the streets in public protests calling for
"heads-to-role" while hundreds of IDF regulars have signed petitions
demanding an independent inquiry into the botched war plans.

"I'm telling Ehud Olmert and Emir Peretz to look me in the eye and tell me
they are fit to hold their posts," said Sgt. Major Lior Vilnes one of the
many protestors.

So what does this firestorm of public outrage auger for Lebanon and the
prospects for peace in the region?

The probability of peace "breaking out" has never looked more dismal. Public
opinion is thrusting Olmert towards another war. Already, government
officials have begun talking about a "second round" of hostilities, a
euphemism that is being reiterated with worrisome regularity in the
press*.*<http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/>The mood in Israel
is ugly and many believe that it foreshadows greater
violence ahead.

Olmert is surrounded by "hawks" from the Sharon era who brush aside any plan
that doesn't involve force. That makes military action all the more likely
even though the objectives are as ambiguous as they were before.

Eli Yishai, Vice Prime Minister, sums up the current thinking in the Olmert
administration:

"No army in the world is more moral than the IDF….We cannot be bleeding
hearts while our citizens are being hurt. If Lebanese citizens pay the
price, they will rise up against Hezbollah. I have proposed that we damage
infrastructure and flatten villages because Hezbollah personnel must know
they are not immune. We should make it clear to them that all residents in
villages from which firepower is launched at IDF soldiers will be warned and
required to leave their homes in 48 hours. And later these villages will be
bombed from the air. That policy would have assured that Lebanese citizens
would not permit Hezbollah to live next to them." (Haaretz)

Isn't this the same flawed-logic that led to "shock and awe"? What gives
people like Yishai and Olmert such confidence in violence when it hasn't
worked in 40 years of occupation?

The penchant among the Israeli high-command for resolving political issues
with brute force doesn't bode well for Lebanon. Israel wants to settle
accounts with Nasrallah and reestablish its dominance in the region, but
that can only be accomplished by dealing a knockout blow to Hezbollah.

Olmert has no chance of defeating Hezbollah. Guerilla groups disappear in
one place and pop up in another; crushing them is nearly impossible. The
clueless Prime Minister is probably more interested in salvaging his own
carreer than in protecting Israel's national security. In truth, Olmert's
bruised vanity won't allow him to be remembered as the "man who lost the war
to Hezbollah". This will lead to a steady escalation of incitements (like
yesterday's commando raid on Balbak) which will eventually trigger an
all-out war.

Restarting the conflict will only create greater threats to Israel's
security. It will strengthen the Lebanese resistance, weaken the
already-feeble Siniora government, rouse more hatred for the United States,
destabilize friendly Arab regimes, and further erode the perception of
Israeli invincibility.

Israel has little to gain and everything to lose.

Never the less, Olmert seems to be disregarding the consequences and
blundering ahead in the futile hope of silencing his critics while indulging
his right-wing allies. Anything less than a full-blown assault on his
Lebanese arch-rival would be tantamount to political seppuku.

Former Shin Bet chief and current Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter,
made a reasonable proposal that could mitigate the tensions and extract
Olmert from his current predicament. Dichter said, "We must not sit and wait
for the next war. A peace agreement in exchange for giving back the Golan
Heights would disconnect Syria from Iran and disarm Hezbollah."

Bingo.

Dichter's advice is dead-on. If Israel conceded the Golan to Syria, then
Syria would cut-off supplies and weaponry to Hezbollah setting the stage for
a comprehensive peace treaty between the 3 nations.

It's a long-shot, but it could work and it reduces the liklihood of more
fighting.

Unfortunately, Olmert quickly dismissed Dichter's plan saying, "We are not
going into any adventure when terror is on their side. When Syria stops
support for terror, then we will be happy to negotiate with them."

Blah, blah, blah; terror, terror, terror; the same worn mantra we've heard
from Bush for the last 5 years while the entire Middle East is doused in
gasoline and ready to explode like a stick of dynamite.

Olmert has erected another road-block to peace and set the stage for a
"second round" of destruction and bloodshed. His choice is bound to create
more enemies for Israel while condemning thousands of Lebanese civilians to
death.

That's a strategy for failure, not success.
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