<b>By Mike Whitney </b> <br>
<br>
"<i>I prefer the most unfair peace to the most righteous war</i>" -
<b>Cicero </b>
<br>
<br>
<b>08/22/06 "</b><a href="http://informationclearinghouse.info/"><b>Information
Clearing House</b></a><b> " - -- </b>Israel is in a state of post-war trauma. Its 34
day pounding of Lebanon achieved none of the stated goals and has
left the public furious at the incompetence of the Olmert
government. 118 soldiers were killed in the conflict and Israel's
celebrated "power of deterrents" has been smashed to smithereens.
Nothing was gained. In the north, industry was brought to a complete
standstill while the local people were shunted off to fallout
shelters for weeks on end. <br>
<br>
What for? <br>
<br>
Hezbollah hasn't been "disarmed" and the 2 captured Israeli soldiers
haven't been returned. The whole travesty was a dead loss. <br>
<br>
The war ended as abruptly as it started. It was suddenly called off
when Olmert couldn't bear the rising death-toll, a fact that was not
lost on Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah said from
the very beginning that the only way to beat Israel was by "killing
soldiers and destroying weapons". Olmert's retreat just proves that
that Nasrallah was right. <br>
<br>
Kenneth Besig summarized the feelings of many Israelis in his
comments in the Jerusalem Post: <br>
<br>
"Fewer than 5,000 poorly-armed Hezbollah terrorists stood off the
mighty IDF for over a month. An Islamic terrorist gang with no
tanks, no artillery, no fighter jets, no attack helicopters, and
just a few RPG's and rifles held to a standstill nearly 30,000 crack
IDF troops with the finest tanks, the best artillery, the fastest
and most advanced fighter-jets and attack helicopters in the world.
And they can still empty our northern communities with their rockets
whenever they want. If that is not a victory, then the word has no
meaning." <br>
<br>
Besig may be wrong when he calls Hezbollah "terrorists", but many
Israelis agree with his overall analysis. Israel may have decimated
Lebanon, but no one believes they won the war. <br>
<br>
Since the ceasefire began, the recriminations and finger-pointing
have only gotten worse. The daily gnashing-of-teeth in the media has
reached a crescendo with every major newspaper calling for the
resignations of Olmert, Defense Minister Peretz and "George
Armstrong" Halutz. Disgruntled reservists are flocking to the
streets in public protests calling for "heads-to-role" while
hundreds of IDF regulars have signed petitions demanding an
independent inquiry into the botched war plans. <br>
<br>
"I'm telling Ehud Olmert and Emir Peretz to look me in the eye and
tell me they are fit to hold their posts," said Sgt. Major Lior
Vilnes one of the many protestors. <br>
<br>
So what does this firestorm of public outrage auger for Lebanon and
the prospects for peace in the region? <br>
<br>
The probability of peace "breaking out" has never looked more
dismal. Public opinion is thrusting Olmert towards another war.
Already, government officials have begun talking about a "second
round" of hostilities, a euphemism that is being reiterated with
worrisome regularity in the press<a href="http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/" style="text-decoration: none;"><b>.</b></a> The mood in Israel is ugly and
many believe that it foreshadows greater violence ahead. <br>
<br>
Olmert is surrounded by "hawks" from the Sharon era who brush aside
any plan that doesn't involve force. That makes military action all
the more likely even though the objectives are as ambiguous as they
were before. <br>
<br>
Eli Yishai, Vice Prime Minister, sums up the current thinking in the
Olmert administration: <br>
<br>
"No army in the world is more moral than the IDF….We cannot be
bleeding hearts while our citizens are being hurt. If Lebanese
citizens pay the price, they will rise up against Hezbollah. I have
proposed that we damage infrastructure and flatten villages because
Hezbollah personnel must know they are not immune. We should make it
clear to them that all residents in villages from which firepower is
launched at IDF soldiers will be warned and required to leave their
homes in 48 hours. And later these villages will be bombed from the
air. That policy would have assured that Lebanese citizens would not
permit Hezbollah to live next to them." (Haaretz) <br>
<br>
Isn't this the same flawed-logic that led to "shock and awe"? What
gives people like Yishai and Olmert such confidence in violence when
it hasn't worked in 40 years of occupation? <br>
<br>
The penchant among the Israeli high-command for resolving political
issues with brute force doesn't bode well for Lebanon. Israel wants
to settle accounts with Nasrallah and reestablish its dominance in
the region, but that can only be accomplished by dealing a knockout
blow to Hezbollah. <br>
<br>
Olmert has no chance of defeating Hezbollah. Guerilla groups
disappear in one place and pop up in another; crushing them is
nearly impossible. The clueless Prime Minister is probably more
interested in salvaging his own carreer than in protecting Israel's
national security. In truth, Olmert's bruised vanity won't allow him
to be remembered as the "man who lost the war to Hezbollah". This
will lead to a steady escalation of incitements (like yesterday's
commando raid on Balbak) which will eventually trigger an all-out
war. <br>
<br>
Restarting the conflict will only create greater threats to Israel's
security. It will strengthen the Lebanese resistance, weaken the
already-feeble Siniora government, rouse more hatred for the United
States, destabilize friendly Arab regimes, and further erode the
perception of Israeli invincibility. <br>
<br>
Israel has little to gain and everything to lose. <br>
<br>
Never the less, Olmert seems to be disregarding the consequences and
blundering ahead in the futile hope of silencing his critics while
indulging his right-wing allies. Anything less than a full-blown
assault on his Lebanese arch-rival would be tantamount to political
seppuku. <br>
<br>
Former Shin Bet chief and current Internal Security Minister Avi
Dichter, made a reasonable proposal that could mitigate the tensions
and extract Olmert from his current predicament. Dichter said, "We
must not sit and wait for the next war. A peace agreement in
exchange for giving back the Golan Heights would disconnect Syria
from Iran and disarm Hezbollah." <br>
<br>
Bingo. <br>
<br>
Dichter's advice is dead-on. If Israel conceded the Golan to Syria,
then Syria would cut-off supplies and weaponry to Hezbollah setting
the stage for a comprehensive peace treaty between the 3 nations.
<br>
<br>
It's a long-shot, but it could work and it reduces the liklihood of
more fighting. <br>
<br>
Unfortunately, Olmert quickly dismissed Dichter's plan saying, "We
are not going into any adventure when terror is on their side. When
Syria stops support for terror, then we will be happy to negotiate
with them." <br>
<br>
Blah, blah, blah; terror, terror, terror; the same worn mantra we've
heard from Bush for the last 5 years while the entire Middle East is
doused in gasoline and ready to explode like a stick of dynamite.
<br>
<br>
Olmert has erected another road-block to peace and set the stage for
a "second round" of destruction and bloodshed. His choice is bound
to create more enemies for Israel while condemning thousands of
Lebanese civilians to death. <br>
<br>
That's a strategy for failure, not success.