[LCM Articles] Lebanon: A Tempestuous Anniversary Approaches

[Marc Haddad]

flowers and chocolates don't seem to be "in" this valentine...

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=283924

If you can't access the link, the article is below.

FYI -- in policy circles Stratfor (the source of this article) are known as the
"shadow CIA" for their shadiness, but I wouldn't discount them completely since
their last analysis on Lebanon was 1 day after July 12 "predicting" a long and
major war...

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Lebanon: A Tempestuous Anniversary Approaches
February 05, 2007 22 49  GMT


Summary


Feb. 14 marks the second anniversary of the assassination of former
Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Lebanon's Shiite, Sunni,
Druze and Christian factions are busy preparing for the event in
traditional Lebanese fashion -- by gun shopping.


Analysis


Feb. 14 will be a tumultuous day in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, as
the country's various rival factions pour into the streets for the
second anniversary of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime
Minister Rafik al-Hariri. With Lebanon's various factions busily
arming themselves for a potential confrontation, the anniversary is
likely to be an explosive event.


Nearly two years ago, al-Hariri was killed in a massive car bombing
that sparked widespread protests and forced Syrian troops out of
Lebanon. Though Syria suffered a great deal of humiliation in being
evicted from its western neighbor, it has managed to maintain a strong
presence in Lebanon's political, military and economic apparatuses to
serve Syrian interests. Syria's main militant asset, Hezbollah, is now
in the middle of a campaign to undermine the Western-oriented Lebanese
government led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. Damascus is working to
expand Hezbollah's political prowess forcefully while ensuring Syrian
allies are safeguarded from an international tribunal that would
potentially implicate the Syrian regime in the al-Hariri
assassination.


With communal tensions steadily rising in the capital city,
Hezbollah's lengthy protest campaign has led Lebanon's sectarian
communities to return to old habits from Lebanon's 1975-1989 civil war
and to prepare for the worst by mounting a massive armament campaign.


The best-equipped of these groups is the Shiite bloc led by Hezbollah
and the Amal movement. Sources in Beirut say hundreds of Hezbollah
fighters armed with automatic rifles and hand grenades have arrived
from the south and from the Bekaa Valley to replace civilian
protesters in Beirut. Armed groups from Hezbollah, the Amal movement
and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) already have begun
reconnaissance missions to explore buildings overlooking downtown and
place snipers on top floors to prevent any members of the anti-Syrian
March 14 alliance from firing at SSNP supporters. Should any attempts
be made to cut off Hezbollah supply routes on the coastal highway or
the Beirut-Damascus highway that connects Beirut's southern suburbs to
southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, Hezbollah has indicated it will
use Katyusha rockets to remove any blockades. Hezbollah's ability to
accurately aim a Katyusha at a specific target remains in doubt,
however.


Hezbollah is also busy monitoring the steady armament of Lebanon's
Sunni faction, which is led by Saad al-Hariri (the slain former prime
minister's son) and is heavily supported by Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Truckloads of arms including automatic rifles, guns, grenade
launchers, heavy machine guns and mortars, ammunition and military
uniforms are being regularly unloaded in building basements in mostly
Sunni west Beirut. Saad al-Hariri is procuring arms paid for by Saudi
Arabia to give the essentially urban Lebanese Sunnis the means for
self-defense. In addition to Arab suppliers, the Lebanese parties
associated with al-Hariri's anti-Syrian March 14 bloc are purchasing
arms through Eastern and Southern European agents. Sources say popular
items on their shopping lists include sniper rifles, night-vision
binoculars, land mines and short-range missile launchers. Providing
further evidence of the arms buying frenzy, used AK-47 prices in the
local market already have risen from $200 to $700 since the 2006
summer war with Israel. Al-Hariri loyalists also have conducted
training exercises on light and medium arms in schools, mosque yards,
parking lots and social clubs in Beirut.


During the Lebanese civil war, Lebanon's Sunnis primarily relied on
the Palestine Liberation Organization for their protection. In the
aftermath of the war, the late al-Hariri believed it was the duty of
Lebanese Sunnis to restore law and order in the country and to
demilitarize the various factions. To this end, he created the Saudi-
funded Hariri Foundation to provide an opportunity for Lebanese youths
from all sectarian backgrounds to pursue a college education. His
assassination and the summer 2006 conflict between Hezbollah and
Israel, however, shook things up and gave the Sunnis under Saad al-
Hariri's leadership a wake-up call to create their own militia. In
Tarik al-Jadidah (a predominantly Sunni working-class neighborhood in
Beirut), graffiti reveals the changing attitudes of Lebanese Sunnis:
"Saad, you are as precious as our eyes; arm us and we will take care
of the rest."


Meanwhile, Maronite Christians and Druze have maintained their own
militias since the early 19th century. These two factions recognized
the importance of self-defense in their Lebanon Mountain enclaves,
which were autonomous from the Ottoman Empire. During the 1970s, the
Druze and Maronites were among the most heavily armed groups in
Lebanon as they sought to counter the rapid militarization of the
Shiite community under Imam Musa al-Sadr, who founded Amal. The Druze
today are actively arming their Sunni allies in Beirut with light arms
and are contracting arms deals on Saad al-Hariri's behalf.


Maronite Christians, however, are seriously divided between the
Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance and the al-Hariri-led March 14
alliance. Gen. Michel Aoun, a prominent figure in the Maronite
community, is currently allied with Hezbollah's group along with
Lebanon's pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud. Samir Geagea's Lebanese
Forces, on the other hand, are bitter foes of Aoun's movement and are
allied with al-Hariri's bloc. Rumors suggest Maronite supporters of
Lahoud and Aoun will lead an effort with their allies in the Lebanese
army to confront the Lebanese Forces militarily in an attempt to
weaken al-Hariri's alliance and prevent Geagea, an anti-Syria
candidate, from becoming a serious contender for the presidency once
Lahoud's term ends.


Escalating arms sales on all sides make a political compromise between
the March 8 and March 14 factions unlikely in the near future. On Feb.
14, government loyalists will hold massive protests in downtown Beirut
to commemorate the anniversary of al-Hariri's death, namely Riad al-
Solh and Martyrs' squares. The presence of both the Hezbollah-led
opposition and the March 14 alliance is bound to cause friction -- and
could easily result in violent clashes in the capital. Though
Hezbollah has an interest in containing the protesters and preventing
violent outbreaks, a number of actors have an interest in allowing the
protests to spiral out of control. For Damascus, a major
destabilization in Beirut could legitimize a Syrian military
intervention in Lebanon to restore its influence. Segments of the pro-
government March 14 alliance are also interested in provoking clashes
with Hezbollah supporters to give the Lebanese army an excuse to
intervene and evict protesters from downtown and end Hezbollah's
protest campaign.


Though a civil war repeat is still unlikely in the near future, the
high potential for violence and the charged atmosphere in Beirut will
certainly raise the bar for Hezbollah in the negotiations it conducts
with the al-Siniora government. Saudi-Iranian competition over Beirut
also will intensify, as Iran makes it clear that any political
resolution in Lebanon will have to be negotiated with Hezbollah's
patrons in Tehran.


In any case, it would be advisable to stay out of Beirut this
Valentine's Day.