[LCM Articles] Lebanon is making history, potentially

[Elias Muhanna]

Saturday, December 16 2006
Lebanon is making history, potentially

Rami G. Khoury

It is easy to get so entangled in the day-to-day dynamics of events in 
Lebanon that one loses sight of the truly new and potentially historic 
developments that are taking place before our eyes. I think we can 
already note five distinct political dynamics that have occurred in 
Lebanon in the past two years or so. All five are unprecedented in 
modern Arab history, and potentially could have historic implications 
for developments in other Arab countries. Yet all five also comprise 
actors - notably Hizbullah, the Lebanese government and its March 14 
backers, Syria, Iran, the United States - whose positions remain fluid, 
thus some of these events could turn out to be fleeting. My hunch is 
that they are historic, and will impact on trends in the region in years 
to come. Here is my list, in chronological order.

The massive street demonstrations and firm political response by many 
Lebanese figures immediately after the killing of former Prime Minister 
Rafik Hariri last February resulted in the departure of Syrian troops 
from Lebanon and Damascus' ending its direct control over domestic 
Lebanese affairs. International diplomatic support for the demonstrators 
via the UN Security Council helped push out the Syrians. Yet the 
spectacle of over a million people on the street in March 14, 2005, was 
the critical populist base that moved the process forward. We should not 
be surprised if similar mass protests occur in other Arab countries in 
the years ahead.

The UN Security Council's decision last year to open an investigation 
into the Hariri murder (now expanded to assist in solving other murders 
of Lebanese public figures that have occurred in the past 20 months) was 
followed by a decision to form a Lebanese-international tribunal to try 
the suspects. Suspicion for the killings has focused heavily on Syria, 
though the government in Damascus insists it is innocent. The truth 
should come out soon enough. The important precedent is that the 
international community has launched an investigative and judicial 
process to hold accountable those who committed these crimes, delving 
deep into the inner political and security structures of sovereign 
countries - mainly Lebanon and Syria in this case. This is an attempt to 
achieve through legitimate political means what was attempted by 
Anglo-American military force in Iraq - either changing a regime or 
changing its behavior.

The war between Hizbullah and Israel this past summer resulted in an 
effective draw, as both sides agreed to a cease-fire after 34 days of 
relentless fighting, most often targeting civilian areas. The fact that 
a non-state actor like Hizbullah forced Israel to accept a diplomatic 
end to the fighting reinforced the stature of Hizbullah in the Arab 
world, emboldened the political posture of its allies and supporters, 
Syria and Iran, and provided a model of resistance, organization, 
strategic planning and implementation that is already spreading to other 
militant movements in the region. It reflects a powerful human will and 
associated technical capacity to defy powerful foes - Israeli, American, 
or Arab - that may manifest itself in other forms in the years ahead.

Hizbullah and its allies in Lebanon have taken to the streets to 
challenge the elected government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, vowing 
to topple it and replace it with a government of national unity in which 
the opposition has veto power through control of at least a third of the 
seats. Such a blatant but peaceful challenge in the streets is a new 
development in modern Arab politics, and represents a precedent that 
could be emulated in other lands. Most Arab regimes that have been 
changed in modern history succumbed to foreign or domestic coups, with 
the possible exception of the overthrow of former Sudanese President 
Jaafar Numeiry in 1985, after street demonstrations brought to power his 
army commander, though that happened when Numeiry was out of the country.

Responding to the Hizbullah-led challenge to his government, Siniora and 
his political allies have fought back energetically, with strong, vocal 
backing from many Lebanese as well as a host of foreign governments, 
especially the American and European governments. Never before has the 
Arab world witnessed such a determined political stand - as opposed to 
military attacks and mass arrests - by an incumbent Arab political 
leadership that has been openly challenged by a strong Islamist-led 
movement. The spectacle of a Western- and Arab-backed, legitimately 
elected Arab government staring down a strong domestic Islamist 
challenge backed by Syria and Iran is a noteworthy novelty. Whoever 
emerges triumphant, or if a negotiated compromise solution is agreed 
upon, the outcome of this historic face-off will impact strongly on 
political trends throughout this region for years to come.

Each of these five developments is historic in itself, and taken 
together they mirror the outlines of the prevalent new ideological 
confrontation that defines the Middle East.