[LCM Articles] Zogby Poll

[Loai Naamani]

Released: March 07, 2005 

New Polling Shows Deep Fractures Among Lebanese, A Zogby International/Information International Poll of Lebanon 

Note: The following analysis of the current situation in Lebanon is written by Dr. James J. Zogby, President of the Arab American
Institute and Zogby International Senior Analyst. Dr. Zogby's analysis is based on recent Zogby International/Information
International polling conducted inside Lebanon. 

The continuing signs of ferment in evidence in the streets of Beirut are being heralded in the US as signs that "another Middle East
domino is falling." The Bush Administration has been quick to latch on to the demonstrations as a validation of the President's
democracy campaign.

But as horrific as the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was and as inspiring as the mass mobilization of the
"cedar revolution" has been, the demonstrations don't tell the whole story of what is happening in Lebanon today. A recent poll of
1,250 Lebanese, representing all religious groupings in the country, establishes that while an emerging consensus exists on some
questions, on several key issues a deep sectarian divide still plagues the country. And these must be tended to if Lebanon's unity
and internal security are to be insured. The poll was conducted during the last week in February 2005 by a Lebanese polling firm,
Information International, in conjunction with Zogby International.

First, the good news. Hariri, who was large in life, has achieved icon-like status in death. Substantial majorities of Lebanese from
every group have been "angered," "sad," or "shocked" by his killing. Large groups from each of Lebanon's communities also now say
that even though they previously did not support Hariri's "vision for Lebanon," they now do so and will even now vote for candidates
who are "close to former Prime Minister Hariri" in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Speaking of the upcoming elections,
three-quarters of all Lebanese want them to proceed as scheduled.

Most Lebanese polled also believe that the assassination will strengthen the opposition and bring about the implementation of UN
Security Council Resolution 1559. And more than 50% in each group say that the US and international reaction to the killing has had
more to do with U.S. enmity toward Syria than with support for Lebanon, per se. This appears to be where the consensus ends.

On the critical matter of who they hold responsible for the assassination, there is a deep division. About one-half of Maronites and
Druze feel that either Lebanese or Syrian authorities were involved. On the other hand, only 14% of Shi'a Lebanese point their
accusing finger in that direction, while more than 70% claim that either Israel or the United States were involved. Hariri's own
Sunni community and Orthodox Christians are divided, with equal numbers pointing to Syria/Lebanon and U.S./Israel as the suspected
culprit.

This may be where the division begins, but it extends into other areas as well. For example, while almost two in five Maronites and
Druze believe that the assassination will lead to a Syrian withdrawal, only 7% of Shi'a agree. Almost 60% of Shi'a, on the other
hand, now worry that in the wake of this assassination measures will be taken that will result in a deterioration of the Lebanese
security situation, an attitude shared by only about 15% of Maronites and Druze.

How best now to proceed with securing Lebanon? Only Maronites see a Syrian
withdrawal as key with one-half agreeing with this as the solution. About one-third of Shia and Sunnis and less than one-fourth of
Orthodox agree. Many Lebanese, in particular Orthodox, Sunni, and Shi'a, see the solution to Lebanon's security in "reinforcement
and deployment of the Lebanese army and security forces all over Lebanon." And while 60% of Druze see the disarming of Lebanon's
militias as necessary for the country's future, only about one in seven Maronites, Orthodox, and Sunni agree. Not surprisingly, only
5% of Shia agree, since the "disarming" provision of UNSC 1559 specifically has Hizbollah in mind.

The lesson in all of this is that as important as the demonstrations may be, those not demonstrating and their views must be
factored by policy makers into the complex equation of how to move Lebanon forward. While it has become clear that the Syrian
military presence in Lebanon has run its course, a Syrian withdrawal by itself doesn't solve the Lebanon puzzle. Intense U.S.
pressure to implement the other half of 1559 may provoke counter-demonstrations that fragile Lebanon may not be able to easily
digest.

A cautionary note: before we begin celebrating falling dominos and claiming credit for them, it is important to know where they
might fall and what might come after they land.


Who is responsible for the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri?


 

Maronite

Orthodox

Sunni

Shiite

Druze


The Syrian authorities

17

11

11

4

22


The Lebanese authorities

6

5

9

5

10


The Lebanese and Syrian
authorities together

30

20

11

5

22


Israel

9

14

16

53

0


United States

13

22

13

19

12


International organizations

4

10

21

2

8

 


How will the assassination of former P.M. Hariri affect the security situation in Lebanon?


 

Maronite

Orthodox

Sunni

Shiite

Druze


The security situation
will deteriorate

16

13

26

58

16


Other assassinations will occur

17

23

15

11

27


The Syrians will withdraw
from Lebanon

42

29

22

7

39


No effect

21

26

29

21

16

 


What is the solution to the security situation in Lebanon?


 

Maronite

Orthodox

Sunni

Shiite

Druze


Reinforcement and deployment of the Lebanese army and security forces all over Lebanon

20

41

47

52

5


Complete withdrawal of the Syrian forces from Lebanon

48

23

31

35

24


Disarmament of all armed forces in Lebanon

17

16

13

5

60


Brining in international forces to implement security

10

7

3

2

8

Zogby International, one of America's top polling firms, has been conducting opinion research since 1984. In 1996, pollster John
Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result, and was one of the first pollsters to accurately foresee Vice
President Al Gore's popular-vote victory in 2000. Zogby International also has polled extensively throughout the Middle East,
including both the major Arab nations in the region and Israel. Zogby International has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest
news agency in the world. Click on our website at www.zogby.com .

Information International is an independent regional research and consultancy firm based in Beirut. Through modern and effective
research methodologies, the firm responds to the challenges facing both the public and private sectors in the Middle East. In a
rapidly changing global environment (social, political, financial & economic), accuracy, consumer-driven quality and strict client
confidentiality are their motto. 

Methodology: Zogby International/Information International conducted interviews of 1250 Lebanese during the last week of February,
2005. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points.

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