[CSBi-events] Seminar - Monday, May 9th

[csbi-events@mit.edu]

Professor MERCEDES PASCUAL
Problems of scale in disease population dynamics: cholera, climate, and Ro.

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
The University of Michigan

(see 
<http://www.eeb.lsa.umich.edu/eebfacultydetails.asp?ID=60>http://www.eeb.lsa.umich.edu/eebfacultydetails.asp?ID=60)

Seminar:        MAY 9, 4PM, 1-350
Host:           Martin Polz


Population cycles of periods longer than seasonal are common in the 
temporal patterns of many infectious diseases, including endemic 
cholera.  Evidence that environmental factors, particularly climatic ones, 
drive these cycles has been highly controversial because of the difficulty 
in isolating their contribution while also taking into account the 
nonlinear population dynamics of the disease.  I present a nonlinear time 
series model developed for this purpose, and show that cholera transmission 
shows remarkable correspondence to patterns of ENSO, rainfall, and river 
discharge for a four-decades long record from Matlab 
(Bangladesh).  However, the analysis also shows the critical interplay of 
population dynamics and
environmental forcing, with strain-dependent responses and the existence of 
periods `refractory' to climate variability.   I then address the 
limitations of  mean-field disease models that ignore the local nature of 
interactions and assume random mixing.   With network models, I present 
results on scaling disease (and predator-prey) dynamics from individuals to 
populations via simple temporal models that parameterize the effects of 
local interactions.


Dawn Davis Loring
Communications Coordinator
Computational and Systems Biology (CSBi)
Phone: (617) 324-0150
Fax: (617) 324-0081

Massachusetts Institute of Technology
77 Massachusetts Avenue
Building 68 - Room 459
Cambridge, MA 02139