[bioundgrd] Bio Seminar: The dynamics underlying global spread of emerging infectious diseases

[Joyce M. Roberge]

Title: The dynamics underlying global spread of emerging infectious diseases

Speaker: Joseph Wu

Affiliation: Hong Kong University School of Public Health

Host: Nicole Hoffman

Date/Time: October 9, 2015 1-2 pm

Location: 32 Vassar St – The Stata Center - Room D-463 (STAR)
https://calendar.csail.mit.edu/seminar_rooms/32-D463

Abstract:
Large-scale computational models parameterized with worldwide air network (WAN) and populations is the mainstream tool for studying global spread of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). In addition to advanced global epidemic simulators such as GLEAM (http://www.gleamviz.org/), recent analytical studies have partially revealed how epidemic arrival time (EAT) for different populations in the WAN depend on local epidemic growth rates and the network features of the WAN. In this work, we developed a novel probabilistic model to describe global spread of EIDs by (i) using nonhomogeneous Poisson process to model air travel of infected cases in the WAN and (ii) accounting for the effect of continuous importation of infected cases on EAT in each population. We show that the resulting analytical formulas for EATs obtained from this model provide an accurate and explicit characterization of how EAT for different populations in the WAN depend on local epidemic growth rates and the network features of WAN.

Bio:
Joseph Wu leads the infectious disease modeling research in the School of Public Health at The University of Hong Kong (HKU). He is an affiliated faculty member of the Center for Communicable Diseases Dynamics (CCDD) at the Harvard School of Public Health. He received his PhD in Operations Research from MIT in 2003 and BS in Chemical Engineering from MIT in 1999. His primary research is in influenza epidemiology and control, particularly focusing on pandemic preparedness and response. His work primarily entails developing mathematical models to assess the potential benefits and resource requirement of mitigation and surveillance strategies for influenza epidemics. Besides influenza, he is currently working on the health economic evaluation of EV71 vaccination in China and HPV vaccination in Hong Kong. In 2014, he led the production of HKU's first Massive Open Online Courseware (MOOC) called Epidemics which had more than 10,000 enrollees on the edX platform.

For more information please contact: Nicole Hoffman
<a href="mailto:nicolem at csail.mit.edu">nicolem at csail.mit.edu</a>


----- Forwarded message from Nicole Hoffman <nicolem at csail.mit.edu> -----
  Date: Mon, 21 Sep 2015 13:24:06 -0400
  From: Nicole Hoffman <nicolem at csail.mit.edu>
Subject: Re: [Undergraduate Program] email for bio seminars
    To: Joyce Roberge <roberge at mit.edu>

Joyce,

I will include the seminar info below. I have also attached a copy of the flyer, if that interests you. Thanks again for your help!

Best,
Nicole



CSAIL Hosts: Joseph Wu
October 9, 2015 1-2 pm
32 Vassar St – The Stata Center - Room D-463 (STAR)

Title: The dynamics underlying global spread of emerging infectious diseases

Abstract
Large-scale computational models parameterized with worldwide air network (WAN) and populations is the mainstream tool for studying global spread of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). In addition to advanced global epidemic simulators such as GLEAM (http://www.gleamviz.org/), recent analytical studies have partially revealed how epidemic arrival time (EAT) for different populations in the WAN depend on local epidemic growth rates and the network features of the WAN. In this work, we developed a novel probabilistic model to describe global spread of EIDs by (i) using nonhomogeneous Poisson process to model air travel of infected cases in the WAN and (ii) accounting for the effect of continuous importation of infected cases on EAT in each population. We show that the resulting analytical formulas for EATs obtained from this model provide an accurate and explicit characterization of how EAT for different populations in the WAN depend on local epidemic growth rates and the network features of WAN.

Bio
Joseph Wu leads the infectious disease modeling research in the School of Public Health at The University of Hong Kong (HKU). He is an affiliated faculty member of the Center for Communicable Diseases Dynamics (CCDD) at the Harvard School of Public Health. He received his PhD in Operations Research from MIT in 2003 and BS in Chemical Engineering from MIT in 1999. His primary research is in influenza epidemiology and control, particularly focusing on pandemic preparedness and response. His work primarily entails developing mathematical models to assess the potential benefits and resource requirement of mitigation and surveillance strategies for influenza epidemics. Besides influenza, he is currently working on the health economic evaluation of EV71 vaccination in China and HPV vaccination in Hong Kong. In 2014, he led the production of HKU's first Massive Open Online Courseware (MOOC) called Epidemics which had more than 10,000 enrollees on the edX platform.






Quoting Joyce Roberge <roberge at mit.edu>:

Hello Nicole,
Please send the announcement to me as you would like it to appear and I will send it to our undergraduate list serve. Thanks!
--Joyce

On Sep 21, 2015, at 11:08 AM, <nicolem at csail.mit.edu<mailto:nicolem at csail.mit.edu>>
wrote:

Nicole sent a message using the contact form at https://biology.mit.edu/contact.

We are hosting Joseph Wu here at CSAIL for a talk Oct 9. We would like to advertise this talk to you. Is there an email for bio seminars? I couldn't find anything on the website. Any help you could provide is appreciated.

Thank you!
Nicole




Joyce Roberge
Undergraduate Program
Biology Education Office 68-120
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
31 Ames Street
Cambridge, MA 02139
617-253-4718
fax: 617-258-9329
email: roberge at mit.edu<mailto:roberge at mit.edu>


Nicole Hoffman
Project Manager
ALFA group,
CSAIL, MIT
nicolem at csail.mit.edu

----- End forwarded message -----

Nicole Hoffman
Project Manager
ALFA Group, CSAIL
nicolem at csail.mit.edu






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