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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Interesting interview with Robert Baer on <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region>
and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>…<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p><b><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111;font-weight:bold'>Fresh Air - </span></font></b><font
color="#111111"><span lang=EN-GB style='color:#111111'>October 2, 2008</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><b><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111;font-weight:bold'>Ex-CIA Operative
Discusses 'The Devil We Know'</span></font></b><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>TERRY GROSS, host:</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>This is Fresh Air. I'm Terry Gross.
Remember the movie "Syriana," which starred George Clooney as a
disillusioned CIA agent? It was loosely based on a memoir by my guest, <a
name="11cd3096d8987882_OLE_LINK1">Robert Baer</a>. Baer was a CIA case officer
from 1976 to 1997. Investigative reporter Seymour Hersh wrote in the New Yorker
that Baer was considered, perhaps, the best on-the-ground field officer in the <st1:place
w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place>. He received the Career Intelligence Medal in
1998. Now, Baer has written a new book about <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place> called "The Devil We
Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower." He says <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> is the most powerful and stable country in
the Middle East, a country the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United
States</st1:country-region></st1:place> must either fight in a new 30-year
war or come to terms with. Baer prefers coming to terms with <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Bob Baer, welcome to Fresh Air. Most of
what we're hearing about <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
now is focused on how we have to stop them from completing development of a
nuclear bomb. That's not the focus of your book. You're writing about <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s
newfound taste for empire. What do you mean by empire? What do you think <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
is after?</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. ROBERT BAER (Former CIA Officer; Author,
"The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower"): <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
is a very peculiar entity right now. And when I refer to its empire, I'm
talking about proxies. Hezbollah in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region>
is a proxy of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
It follows to the letter Iranian orders. It is a very disciplined organization.
It's a way for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
to project power in a way that I really can't compare to anything in history.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>In <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>, as well, you have the
Iranians pulling the strings among the Shia. Last week, our ambassador in <st1:City
w:st="on">Baghdad</st1:City>, Ryan Crocker, said very explicitly that it's <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> that's stopping an agreement between the <st1:country-region
w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>. I mean, I find this
astounding, and it was only reported in the L.A. Times that <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> has that degree of power in <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Baghdad</st1:City></st1:place>. So what the
Iranians are doing are looking for a very conventional projection of power
through the Gulf and through the <st1:place w:st="on">Levant</st1:place>. It's
on the verge of becoming, I guess you could call it a virtual empire.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Let's start with <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
You're one of the people who think that <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>
won the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>
war. What has <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> gained
from the way the war in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>
has turned out?</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: Well, I think, first of all,
that we instituted, and I should add, in principle, very rightly, a
Jeffersonian democracy of sorts there. One man, one vote, which put the Shia in
power. They're approximately 65 percent of the population of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>All of the Shia leaders elected in 2005
have very strong ties to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Tehran</st1:City></st1:place>.
Their families live in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
They take refuge there, especially during the violence of 2006. The Iranians are
starting - they're planning, and they're starting to build a pipeline that will
go from <st1:City w:st="on">Basrah</st1:City>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region>'s
main export route, to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Abadan</st1:City></st1:place>.
The economic ties are strengthening by the day. Not only that, but you have the
Iranians are able to put down Shia insurgencies, like Muqtada al-Sadr.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: You think <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place> was behind that?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: Oh, absolutely. I think -
because when Muqtada al-Sadr was in trouble, he fled to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Tehran</st1:City></st1:place>. He's in a religious school now.
Again, I like to go back to current reporting, and the L.A. Times reports that
it was <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
that put Muqtada al-Sadr under control. And, in fact, the L.A. Times went on to
say that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
is taking over his militia directly. Incidentally, it's to the benefit of the <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
There has been little or no Shia violence in the last year. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place> has been a key player in the
surge.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Well, you say <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> is richly annexed to part of <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>
and its oil.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: It's annexed it in the sense
that a lot of oil is still gone missing. It's being shipped to Fujairah in the <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United Arab Emirates</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
It's being refined and sent to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
You have Rafsanjani, former president of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>, is a key player in the oil. I
have numerous former colleagues with the CIA in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place> and buying Iraqi oil, and
they're telling me they have to go through what in effect are Iranian agents. <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
has an unseen hand. It's not completely unseen, but it's not an obvious
annexation. It's annexation by a proxy.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: So what do you think Ambassador
Crocker meant when he said <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>
was standing in the way of an agreement between the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region>
and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: It's very simple. The Iranian
plan or the Shia plan, if you like, is to thank the United States for getting
rid of Saddam Hussein and then very politely asking it to leave by 2011. At
that point, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region> will regain
much of its independence but will have an alliance with <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>. I know, I likened it to our
alliance with <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Canada</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
But basically, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region> cannot
move in issues on national security without a green light with <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Tehran</st1:City></st1:place> or at least some
sort of accord between the two capitals.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: So why wouldn't <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> want an agreement between the <st1:country-region
w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: Well, what they don't want is
an open-ended agreement between the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region>
and <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region> which would leave <st1:country-region
w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> bases or <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place> troops or a security arrangement.
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> would like to pry us
out <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>
very peacefully without leaving chaos behind or any sort of civil war, of
course.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: So <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>
wants the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region></st1:place>
out completely, no bases, no remaining soldiers?</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: They want us gone. They want us
out of the Gulf. If they could arrange it, they want us out of the Gulf. The
way they look at it, the <st1:place w:st="on">Persian Gulf</st1:place> is
called that for a reason. It's an Iranian body of water. 90 percent of the rim
of the Gulf is Shia. All those Shia either look to <st1:City w:st="on">Qom</st1:City>,
the <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Holy</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">City</st1:PlaceType>
in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>, or they look to
Najaf, the <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Holy</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">City</st1:PlaceType>
in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region>, which is very
heavily influenced by <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Well, since you're saying that <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> wants basically to be an empire and to have
proxies, including <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region>,
would that make it even more dangerous for the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United
States</st1:country-region> to do what <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>
wants and withdraw completely from <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place> without soldiers or bases?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: No. I take this as good news.
In my book, I take a look at Sunni fundamentalism, and I took a look at Shia
fundamentalism, and when I started this book, I had no idea where I was going
to go. I spent a lot of time with a Hezbollah group that set off car bombs that
fought this 18-year war. In <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region></st1:place>,
I spent a lot of time in Israeli jails talking to Sunni extremists, suicide
bombers.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>And what I found, I walked away from all
of this - I did this over a course of three years - was that the Shia, because
of the nature of their sect, it is much more disciplined, and we are capable of
making a deal with them which will hold. We are not capable of making the same
deal with the Sunni, who are anarchists. You know, it's a stretch using that
word, but they are anarchists.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>So I think we're - my story is a good
news story. People may look at this and say, look, we have to do something
about <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
We may have to attack <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>
to stop it from getting an empire or stop its proxies in <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region></st1:place>. But I look at it as a
reliable ally, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>,
somebody that could help us manage the Gulf or manage <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>. I think that, thanks to <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>, we can walk away from <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place> having gotten rid of Saddam
and leave behind a fairly stable country, but only if we start talking to the
Iranians and reach some sort of a security accord.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: It's a hard sell to convince
Americans that President Ahmadinejad of Iran is a good negotiating partner and
somebody you can really kind of, you know, trust in organizing peace in that
part of the world.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: Well, it's a very - especially
in the election because, I mean, even McCain, you look in the debate, aside
from not being able to pronounce the man's name, but more important than that,
he is a spokesman for a hardcore of revolutionary guards. He is not the de
facto executive authority in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
That's held by Khamenei, the supreme leader, and a group of officers. There is
a Polit bureau, an informal Polit bureau in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place> which runs the country.
Ahmadinejad is not even in that Polit bureau. So looking at Ahmadinejad today
is sort of like looking at McCarthy during the 50s. He's an irrelevant voice.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: When you say irrelevant, I mean, McCarthy
really changed the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United
States</st1:country-region></st1:place> for a long time. He might - but he
wasn't the executive power, so you say.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: No, he couldn't call a nuclear
strike on <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Moscow</st1:City></st1:place>
just as Ahmadinejad cannot call a nuclear strike on Tel Aviv. Nor can
Ahmadinejad call, you know, call for a war against the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region></st1:place> in the Gulf. So what
he says is irrelevant. What Khamenei and Rafsanjani, in this informal Polit
bureau, say is much more relevant. And if you look at their comments very
closely, their public comments, they were actually fairly rational. You can
identify a core Iranian national interest. Yes, it's expansive, but it's not
insane. And they do not want World War Three.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>They think that they have won in <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region> in the sense that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place> is no longer a hostile country.
And Saddam is gone. They've won in a sense in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Afghanistan</st1:country-region></st1:place> because the Taliban,
their mortal enemy, is gone as well. They look at the <st1:country-region
w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region>, its interest in the <st1:place
w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place>, as waning. I mean, even when you look at
Olmert's statement this week, when he said, we have to give up the <st1:place
w:st="on">West Bank</st1:place>. We have to give up East Jerusalem, and then
you finally look at <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region></st1:place>,
where Hezbollah is the de facto government, has a veto over the cabinet. The
Israelis lost the 2006 war, and the Iranian star is rising. And in any time you
have a country that is doing this well, it's not that they want the status quo,
but they cannot afford a war with the United States, and that's why I think we
can negotiate with them.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Oh, if you're just joining us, my
guest is Robert Baer. He was a CIA agent for 21 years. He resigned in 1997. He
worked largely in <st1:place w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place>. His new book is
called "The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower."
My guest is Robert Baer and he was a CIA agent for 21 years, from 1976 to 1997.
He worked largely in the <st1:place w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place> and the
Gulf. The movie "Syriana" starring George Clooney was very loosely
based on a memoir that Baer had written. His new book is called "The Devil
We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower."</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Now, there's a lot of concern in <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region> and in the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United
States</st1:country-region> that, you know, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>
is building a nuclear weapon, and if it succeeds, that will be an existential
threat to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
You say in your book that the Iranians are really more likely to go after the
Saudis than <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
What do they want with the Saudis?</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: The Saudis represent for them
the worst form of Islam, an uncompromising Islam, an Islam that invented Bin
Laden, if you like, and it's also <st1:country-region w:st="on">Saudi Arabia</st1:country-region>
they accuse of being behind sectarian violence inside <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>. And that's little reported in
the American press, but it disturbs the Iranians that their Sunni are following
the Saudi Wahhabi form of Islam, which is, in fact, uncompromising.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>They have a reasonable complaint against
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Saudi Arabia</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
They do not like it that <st1:country-region w:st="on">Saudi Arabia</st1:country-region>
administers <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Mecca</st1:City></st1:place>
to the exclusion of the Shia. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>
does not like it that <st1:country-region w:st="on">Saudi Arabia</st1:country-region>
is repressing, and there's no other way to put it, the Shia that live in <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Saudi Arabia</st1:country-region></st1:place>
in the eastern province. They do not like it that <st1:country-region w:st="on">Saudi
Arabia</st1:country-region> has so much influence in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State
w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1:place>. What ultimately the Iranians
would like is to become an equal partner of the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region></st1:place>. I know this is a
tall order, and we're going to wait decades for anything like this to come
about, but in their hearts, this is what they'd like.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: An equal partner on what?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: In the <st1:place w:st="on">Middle
East</st1:place>. They would like to sit down with the <st1:country-region
w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place> and actually come to a
solution for the Palestinians. They would like to support and give power in <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region> to the Shia because the Shia are
approaching a majority on <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
They would like to co-administer <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Mecca</st1:City></st1:place>
with the Saudis. They feel that their sect has been repressed since 680 A.D.,
since the murder of the prophet's grandson. They believe that this is the Shia
millennium.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: You know, if <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> becomes the key player with the <st1:country-region
w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region> in negotiating a settlement for
the Middle East, I mean, we know what President Ahmadinejad of <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
wants. He wants all Palestinians to participate in elections, Palestinians in
the West Bank, <st1:City w:st="on">Gaza</st1:City>, and I think also
Palestinians in the Palestinian diaspora, and that would effectively eliminate <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place>
as a Jewish state.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: This is what Ahmadinejad says.
During the last year I've sat down, for what it's worth, with Hezbollah for
more than a few meetings. And they've told me over and over again that the real
policy in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>,
and Hezbollah's real policy, is to come to a solution that the Palestinians
accept, the vast majority of them. And I asked them, would that be on
Resolution 242, which gives the West Bank to the Palestinian and East <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jerusalem</st1:City></st1:place>? They said, if
the Palestinian accept it, we accept it. We do not want to be more Palestinian
than the Palestinians. The Iranians have officially stated this.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Now, there's a lot of people going to
say, well, look at Ahmadinejad. Look at his statements. We can't trust him.
Well, I think we have to sit down with Khamenei and the real leadership and
find out if, in fact, they're serious. By not talking to your enemy, you're
going to miss signals. You're going to miss opportunities.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Do you think, if <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> does successfully complete development of a
nuclear weapon, that that weapon would pose an existential threat to <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place>?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: I don't think - the Israelis
have nuclear weapons, and they would obliterate <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place> if attacked, and they are
capable of doing it. The Iranians understand this. I think what we don't want
is the Iranians to get a nuclear weapon simply because it would start an arms
race the Gulf. The Saudis would immediately build one. You know, what's to stop
the Kuwaitis or the Emirates and so forth?</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>What concerns me is an arms race, but my
solution, which, you know, people are going to describe as over simplistic, but
I have been watching Iran for 30 years, is give the Iranians an alternative to
a nuclear weapon, and that would be recognition of their new-found power. It
would be a deciding voice in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>
and so forth and avoid this arms race. But again, if you don't talk to them,
you'll never know what it is possible.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Of course, some people would say,
they'll end up with both. They'll end up with the power, and they'll covertly
keep on with their weapons program.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>BAER: The alternative of attacking <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
is unacceptable. The fact is that they have silkworm missiles buried on their
side of the <st1:place w:st="on">Persian Gulf</st1:place>, and they will fire
them at the oil tankers. They will take out 17 million barrels of oil, of
traded oil, out of the Gulf. They will hit Saudi facilities at Ahb Kake(ph),
Ras Tanura, and the rest of them. It would send us into a depression, a war
with <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
A war with <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
is impossible. We are facing in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
that if we don't do something about it, a crisis, not just a political crisis,
but an economic one that will make the subprime meltdown look like a walk in
the park.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: So who do you think in the <st1:country-region
w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region> now is pushing for war with <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>,
for like a military strike against nuclear - the nuclear program?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>BAER: Well, I think that, you know,
anybody that is - their focus on <st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region>
is they know <st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region> has to
do something, that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place>
cannot let the drift occur. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region>
more than any country understands the power of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>. We tend to ignore it. The
Saudis understand it, as well. I mean, they are terrified. The Emirates last
week have proposed building a canal around the <st1:place w:st="on">Strait of
Hormuz</st1:place> to get their oil out. Can you imagine what a canal would
look like, cutting through the <st1:place w:st="on">Arabian Peninsula</st1:place>?
It would be just an enormous project. But the point is, that's how scared they
are.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>The neo cons in this country say, we
have to hit the Iranians. We have to knock them down a peg, but it's not that
easy because they will retaliate. And it's not going to be like hitting Saddam,
where you can win in a couple of weeks. They will light the gulf on fire if threatened,
and I think they will. You call it black mail if you like, but we're between <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>
and the hard place. And the way out is negotiating, but first, you have to
accept the premise that the Iranians are a rational power, and this what I do
in my book. I show how that 1979, they were completely irrational. They killed
two bosses of mine. They blew up our embassy. They blew up the Marines. They
took hostages. They attacked the Israeli embassy in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Buenos Aires</st1:City></st1:place>, and they attacked Khobar
barracks. But since 1996, this terrorism that the Iranians supported has
subsided.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: You hear rumors every so often
that there might be an attack against Iran before the Bush administration
leaves, or that Israel might attack Iran before the Bush administration's clock
runs out. What do you hear about that?</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>BAER: Well, if your - the people are
pushing this conspiracy, and it's always possible, as an October surprise.
McCain is down in the polls. This economy is going to destroy his chances for
election, in my reading of it. What he needs is a foreign crisis, and that
would be an attack on Iran, and the way the conspiracy goes, and what the
Israelis would like to do is get permission for over flight, hit Iran's nuclear
facilities, and if there were a Machiavellian figure in the White House that
needed McCain to follow Bush, now would be the time to do it. The Israelis tell
me, well, they don't want to get involved in American elections, not to this
degree. And after four November or after the elections, they are going to consider
in this window with Bush in office, a weakened Bush, of hitting <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
between now and January.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Why would they want a weakened
Bush in office when they hit <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>BAER: Weakened Bush, the thinking goes that,
you know, he would - might be looking as legacy, you know, take care of the
last problem in the <st1:place w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place>. It would be a
Hail Mary to see what he could salvage from his presidency. I think it's all
sort of fanciful because the Israelis don't really want a full fledged war with
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> either because of <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region>, because of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Syria</st1:country-region></st1:place>. There's no stopping a full
fledged war.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: You mean, once you attack <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>BAER: It could go anywhere. I mean, you
would see bombs going off in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Cairo</st1:City></st1:place>.
Hezbollah would blanket <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place>
with rockets, possibly chemical weapons. They may have them. And then <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
will hit the oil facilities. And we would see enormous increase in casualties
in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region> and <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Afghanistan</st1:country-region></st1:place>
from Iranian agents.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: So let me just go back a second.
So you're saying, you think, based on your sources, that Israel is unlikely to
attack Iran's nuclear facility now because they know it would be trouble?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: People in the Keneset on the
defense committee who were pushing for an attack on Iran tell me that they're
not going to, you know, get this done. They can't get it done. They would like
to. They think they have no choice. They're unlikely to convince the political
leadership in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place>
to do it.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Let me ask you, you have a lot of
sources. You were in the CIA for 21 years. You worked that region, so how come
you're so certain that if <st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region>
or the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> attack <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>'s nuclear program, that would end up in
catastrophe, and yet there are people in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region>
and people in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United
States</st1:country-region></st1:place> who are still seriously considering
it. Do they have different sources then you do? I mean, what a counsel that
kind of huge discrepancy between, this would be a huge catastrophe and, oh,
this would be a really helpful thing and stop <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s power.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>BAER: Well, I mean, one thing is, I
spent 30 years almost, and even after I left the CIA, and then I went to <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
recently. And that doesn't really do you much going to running <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
because you're completely isolated there. You were watched all the time. You
have a keeper or minder. But what I did was I had what you can call as inside
information on Iranian leadership, which was actually very good in the last 30
years. And, at least in my mind, of course, I don't have the evidence on paper
because it's illegal to take this out, I see a - I can chart this Iranian
maturity.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>At the same time, I know by name all the
commanders of the Revolutionary Guard Corps that command the missiles along the
Gulf, and I've met some people from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who fully
would justify a retaliation after an attack. These are bloody minded people, if
you want. They are very serious people. They've been fighting in wars for a
long time, and they would not hesitate to bring the house down.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: You said that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place> has a bottomless pool of
potential recruits. By that do you mean they just had a very large population,
or do you think that they could get recruits from around the Islamic world?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: Well, that's the interesting
thing is what is that the conventional wisdom, especially before we went in to
Iraq, and this was the wisdom of the neo cons, is that Arab and Persian don't
get along. Persian are Indo European people, the Arabs are a Semitic people,
and fine, they make a life for a short period, but that's - it will not endure.
What we found in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region></st1:place>
is at over the course of this 18 year war, they used Arabs. Hassan Nasrallah,
the head of Hezbollah, doesn't have a drop of Persian blood in him. And yet, he
is an Iranian, let me put - he's equivalent of an Iranian general, a very
popular one, a very powerful one, but he follows Tehran's orders.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>So what we've seen is that the Persians
indeed have crossed this ethnic barrier. They've also crossed the sectarian
barrier because they become a key determining factor in an Israeli settlement
with Hamas, which is a Sunni organization and in the <st1:place w:st="on">West
Bank</st1:place>, where Hamas is expanding. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s guidance is crucial for the
Palestinians, so they've really broken the mold in history.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: So you're making the argument
that the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region> needs
to negotiate with <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>, that
the last thing we should be doing is attack <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>. If we - if the <st1:country-region
w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region> negotiated with <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>, and it gave <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>
some of the things that it wanted and some of the things it wants, it wants to
be in a solution to the <st1:place w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place> crisis. It
wants control or at least more control of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Mecca</st1:City></st1:place>.
Say we do that. Say we negotiated with <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>, and we were able to give them
some of the things that they wanted. How would the shape of the <st1:place
w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place> and the shape of the world change a result of
that?</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>BAER: There would be an enormous shift
toward the Shia Islam. It would, let me put it nicely, break the heart of the
Saudis. It would break the heart of the Sunnis in the Gulf. It would be a
historic shift in power, and at least among Muslims, I mean, this would be
historic. It's never - the Shia have always been downtrodden and repressed,
whatever you want to call them. And what we're saying now is, thanks to <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s
empire through proxy, we would have to acknowledge this. And the other choice
is to fight it in what would be an equivalent of a 30 years' war. And I'm not
sure if we could afford that today.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: So you think that one of the
things standing in the way of the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region>
negotiating with <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
is the Saudis because they know that they would be on the losing end of an
American-Iranian deal.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Well, let's be realistic. Do we
really care who pumps the oil, who ships it to this country or to the world? We
don't get a whole lot of oil from <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Saudi Arabia</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Maybe that's a - what
I'm trying to say is it's a fungible product that we, you know, we get more
from <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
But the point is, do we really care, one, who's in charge of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Mecca</st1:City></st1:place> and two, who's pumping the oil?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>What we really want is stability and
avoiding a war between <st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region>
and <st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region> by shifting this to
a real military power, which <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
is. There is no military power anywhere in Gulf that's equivalent of <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s.
I mean, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
can put a million people in uniform almost immediately. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Saudi Arabia</st1:country-region></st1:place>, with 250,000, its an
ineffective army. Saudis still have not fully explained how 15 highjackers
ended up on those airplanes.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>It is simply, you know, from going into
all these prisons and talking to the suicide bombers in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place> that I walk away, and let me
just put it very bluntly, they're crazy. Yet, I go in and talk to the families
of suicide bombers that acted on the orders of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>, and they were very specific,
and they were very defined military goals, which may not, you know, make the
victims feel any better. But what it does tell me is that we can deal with
these people, and I think we can deal with them much easier. Once everything is
laid out on the table, then we can with the Saudis or the Emirates, but it
would cause, again, a huge shift in the balance in the gulf and the rest of <st1:place
w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place>.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: If you're just joining us, my
guest is Robert Baer. He was a CIA agent for 21 years. He resigned in 1997. The
movie "Syriana" that starred George Clooney was loosely based on a
memoir by Baer. Baer's new book is called "The Devil We Know: Dealing with
the New Iranian Superpower." You joined the CIA in 1976. Why did you want
to join?</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: You know, frankly, I joined as
a prank. I was living in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Berkeley</st1:City></st1:place>.
I was intending to go to graduate school in Chinese studies and was completely
out of money, and my roommates said, why don't you get a job? So we started
joking about the CIA. I remember it was the Pike and Church Committees going
on. So I called them up, and I got an interview, and before I knew it, I was
jumping out of an airplane in one of their camps with a machine gun around my
neck.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>And it was - I had always intended to
stay in a very short time, and what happened once I got into the CIA was I
became fascinated with things foreign. I mean, I'm not talking about foreign
cultures, what made a country tick because we always - that was our mission, to
figure out what made <st1:country-region w:st="on">Syria</st1:country-region>
tick, what made <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
tick. And what it taught me, the CIA, and what - well, I became very
fascinated, is to evaluate information. I hope I'm good at it, is to weigh
public statements, to weigh open source, and to weigh technical information,
which is really a treasure. And then, all three of them, and you can include
satellites, and you can get approximation of the truth, which is not available
to most people.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Can you give us an example of an
American policy that was built around public statements and public facts when
you knew things that were happening behind the scenes that contradicted those
public statements and public policies, and you knew that the policy - you
suspected that the policy was going to lead us in another direction because the
underlying truth, the covert truth wasn't being acknowledged.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: <st1:City w:st="on">Beirut</st1:City>
in 1982, the CIA sat down with the Reagan administration, the chief substation
from the region, and said that, if you send the Marines into <st1:City w:st="on">Beirut</st1:City>,
and you force <st1:country-region w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region> to
recognize <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place>
at this juncture, we will get a guerrilla warfare. There will be enormous
loses. We were talking to all of the groups, to the Palestinians. We were
talking to the Shia. We were talking indirectly to the Iranians, and more than
that, we knew what was going on in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Damascus</st1:City></st1:place>,
and the CIA was completely ignored, and as you know, this led to the October
bombing of the Marines.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: What would you say about how the
Reagan administration handled it? Do you think that they weren't paying
attention to the CIA? Did they have information that contradicted your
information?</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: No, they didn't have - we
provided all the information to the Reagan administration. I mean, for
instance, well, they handled it horribly because they went arms for hostages
during <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
contra. We knew, and I used to brief Oliver North, and I told them this, that
he would meet with the Iranians in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region></st1:place>. The Iranian that was in
charge of the hostages would fly back to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Beirut</st1:City></st1:place>
to see the hostages, be sure they were in good health because they knew what
they were worth, and I said, we're not dealing with intermediaries here. You
were dealing with the terrorist. I mean, we're calling - I hate that word. You
are dealing with the people holding the hostages. You are encouraging a radical
extremist faction in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
by going along with this arms for hostages. But the case is that, inside the
White House, they will ignore fact for political motivations. It's they, you
know, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
contra was done for reasons other than, you know, what we know to be truth or
based on t! he truth.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Why did you want to write this
book about <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: Well, I didn't want to write
the book about <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
that I wrote. What I wanted to write was the best and the brightest, how we
missed Iran, how we lost it, and my editor called me up and said, you're not
David Halberstam, you know. I like you very much, but - and I said you're
right. I'm not David Halberstam. And he said, well, take your - you know <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
You lived on the periphery for all these years. What do you do with it? And I
don't want the conventional wisdom. I want to know what an insider looks at
when he sees <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>,
and this is how the book came about.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>It's amazing I spent 30 years
researching it, and it took me four months to write it. I mean, it became so
obvious as I sat down to write it the way this went. It didn't take a whole lot
of thinking once I started, you know, putting the chapters down, and yes, well,
this is rather obvious. And this is the kind of reality that I lived in for 30
years, which I would like to convey to people that are actually making policy
or sitting in Washington, who perforce, you know, live off soundbites and the
rest of it. I mean, that's the way the politics are in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State
w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1:place>. It's no one's fault. It's the
way they are.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: We're recording this interview
during an incredible financial meltdown in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Is that a security
threat to you, do you think?</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: Well, I think it's a security
threat because what you're seeing is the waning of American power. I mean, our
financial markets are at risk of not becoming the center of the world. I mean, <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
looks at us as vulnerable. I, myself, am saying how long can we afford the wars
in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Afghanistan</st1:country-region> and <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>?
I, as an American, would prefer that this money was being spent here. I'd like
to get out of both wars very quickly, you know, capture Bin - I, frankly, think
Bin Laden is dead, but capture Bin Laden, turn that country over or whatever
government there is, and get out. And what we need to do is come home.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Now, the rest of the world is coming to
the same conclusion. We have made a mess in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>. There's no other way to look
at it. You know, if the surge works for the next 20 years, come on, was it
worth it going into the country like that spending trillions of dollars? So
you're seeing a rift in history. I think the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United
States</st1:country-region> will come home, and it better leave the house in
the <st1:place w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place> in order. And we also need to
get off Middle Eastern oil, or we cannot spread democracy in the <st1:place
w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place>. It's undoable. They're either going to do
it, or they're not going to do it, and we need to come back and find a way, a <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Manhattan</st1:City></st1:place> project for
alternative energy.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Let me just back up a little bit.
You slipped in there that you think Bin Laden is dead.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: Of course he's dead.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: What do you mean, of course?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: Where is he?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>(Soundbite of laughter)</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Hiding some place in that no
man's land between <st1:country-region w:st="on">Afghanistan</st1:country-region>
and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Pakistan</st1:country-region></st1:place>
now.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: Where are the DVDs? Bin Laden
wouldn't dye his hair. I mean, all these things can be manipulated. As you
know, voices can be manipulated. We can take this recording, and you could
change everything to completely the opposite of what I said. Your technicians
can do this. He hasn't shown up. I have taken in the last month a poll of CIA
officers who had been on his trail, and what astounded me was not a single one
was sure if he was alive or dead. In other words, have no idea. I mean, this
man disappeared off the side of the earth. That has never happened before in my
years in the CIA, and as long as we're at it, when in history has a country
fought a war against another country or another entity where the leader may be
dead? Which leads us to the third question, are we fighting the wrong war in <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Afghanistan</st1:country-region> and soon in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Pakistan</st1:country-region></st1:place>? And I've come to the
conclusion, we are.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Because?</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: There's no definition of
victory. We could move in to the tribal areas in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Pakistan</st1:country-region>
and take hill by hill and turn over every village and still not find Bin Laden,
and someone's going to say, which he's moved to Eastern China or <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Tajikistan</st1:country-region></st1:place>
or some other neighboring country, and we're not going to know. This could be
an eternal war if the goal is to capture this man dead or alive.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: I regret that we're out of time.
Before I let you go, I'm going to ask you to cheer me up.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>(Soundbite of laughter)</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: After all of the kind of bad news
you've been delivering.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: The cheering up is that there
is a solution to the <st1:place w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place>. Olmert gave
it this week we can give the <st1:place w:st="on">West Bank</st1:place> back.
We can give <st1:place w:st="on">East Jerusalem</st1:place>. We can rope in <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region></st1:place>
into the state of nations. We just have to open our eyes and see what these
people want. Olmert did, so let's do the same thing. And it is - the Middle
East is solvable in that sense that we can come home from <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Afghanistan</st1:country-region>, and we can come home from <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Iraq</st1:country-region></st1:place>.
So I mean, actually, you know, dealing with the facts doesn't sound too
pleasant, but at the end of the day, it is the message of hope.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Bob Baer, thanks so much for
talking with us.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Mr. BAER: Thank you very much.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>GROSS: Robert Baer is the author of the
new book, "The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian
Superpower." He was a CIA operative from 1976 to 1997.</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Copyright ©2008 National Public Radio®.
All rights reserved. No quotes from the materials contained herein may be used
in any media without attribution to National Public Radio. This transcript may
not be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission. For
further information, please contact NPR's Permissions Coordinator at (202)
513-2030.</span></font><span lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><font size=3 color="#111111" face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#111111'>Record Number: 200810021201</span></font><span
lang=EN-GB><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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