<div id="1fhx" class="ArwC7c ckChnd"><span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-weight: bolder; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-decoration: none; text-align: justify; line-height: normal;">Something radically new after Doha</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 102); text-decoration: none;">By Michael Young </span><br><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 10px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); text-decoration: none;">Daily Star staff</span><br>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bolder; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-decoration: none; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; font-weight: bold; font-variant: normal; color: rgb(156, 11, 11);">Thursday, May 22, 2008</span></span><p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">
Whatever else is said about the agreement between Lebanon's leaders
reached in Qatar on Wednesday, it will likely transform the country's
political landscape. With the <a href="http://amazon.com/gp/product/8778386926?ie=UTF8&tag=thedailystar-20&link_code=em1&camp=212341&creative=384049&creativeASIN=8778386926&adid=ad134c30-a43c-4480-b74b-dd6a38742205" name="11a10481e9b546e4_8778386926" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 102); text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">election</a> of
a president, alliances will change and with that we may see growing
intricacy and reversals in the relationships between March 14 groups
and opposition groups. </p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">One
thing that will not change, however, is the attitude of a majority of
Lebanese when it comes to Hizbullah's behavior. Party officials have
recklessly downplayed their armed occupation of Beirut two weeks ago,
but no one, least of all the Sunnis, will soon forget what happened. So
even if genuine politics return, those of compromise and shifting
calculations, the structural inability of Hizbullah to coexist with a
sovereign Lebanese state will not disappear. This may push domestic
parties to acquire weapons for when Hizbullah again uses bullets to
overcome its political shortcomings. </p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">Like
most compromises, the Doha agreement has created winners and losers on
all sides - but remains nebulous enough so that the losers still feel
they might gain from it. But it's difficult not to interpret what
happened in Qatar as a definitive sign that <a href="http://amazon.com/gp/product/1741046092?ie=UTF8&tag=thedailystar-20&link_code=em1&camp=212341&creative=384049&creativeASIN=1741046092&adid=76ce5149-39de-493e-8dcc-d2d7e2d556ae" name="11a10481e9b546e4_1741046092" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 102); text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Syria's</a> return
to Lebanon is no longer possible. No doubt the Syrians were in on the
arrangement, and the suspicious delay in establishing the Hariri
tribunal until early 2009 makes one wonder whether a quid pro quo is
taking shape behind the scenes. Reports of a breakthrough on the
Syrian-Israeli track, the Iraqi Army's entry into <a href="http://amazon.com/gp/product/B000GIWIVA?ie=UTF8&tag=thedailystar-20&link_code=em1&camp=212341&creative=384049&creativeASIN=B000GIWIVA&adid=7d512196-ef9f-4659-8d8f-eaa4a41fa7fa" name="11a10481e9b546e4_B000GIWIVA" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 102); text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Sadr City</a>,
certainly with an Iranian green light, and signs that a truce may soon
be agreed in Gaza, suggest a regional package deal may have oiled the
Lebanese deal.</p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">If
there was one message emerging from the recent fighting, it was that
Syria could not conceivably return its army to Lebanon without
reconquering the country. Hizbullah committed several mistakes, of
which two were especially egregious for Syria: The Sunni community,
like the Druze and many Christians, are mobilized and will fight any
Syrian comeback; and the Lebanese file is more than ever an Iranian
one, because Hizbullah's destiny is at stake. Syria's allies, other
than Hizbullah, were ineffective in Beirut and the mountains, in some
cases even siding with the majority. This confirmed that Damascus has
less leverage than ever when it comes to employing those smaller armed
groups it completely controls.</p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">The
election of a president, even if he is the troubling Michel Suleiman,
opens a new phase in Lebanon, one in which it is possible to imagine
consolidating a state gradually breaking free from Syria's grip. That's
the priority today, and has been the priority since April 2005 when the
Syrian Army withdrew from the country. Whether Suleiman likes it or
not, from now on he is a president, not a candidate maneuvering to
become a president, which will require him to take a strong position on
defending the sovereignty of the state both vis-ˆ-vis Syria and
Hizbullah. That could either push him closer to the position favored by
March 14 and most Lebanese, or it could damage him if he proves to be
indecisive. </p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">Will
March 14 survive after this? It probably will in the face of an armed
Hizbullah and Syria's foreseeable efforts to regain a foothold in
Beirut. But the parliamentary majority may transform itself into a
looser alignment, united on the large issues but with its leaders
behaving parochially when it comes to elections and patronage. Once
Suleiman is elected, he becomes an arbiter, an axial figure, in the
political game. Politicians will have to position themselves either for
or against him, as the president strives to build up a power base for
himself in the state, particularly in Parliament. Expect Suleiman to
use the army as his bludgeon, which would be regrettable, and expect
tension between the officers and traditional politicians.</p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">One
unanswered question is who will be prime minister. If it is Saad
Hariri, and it is difficult to imagine it won't be, the relationship
between him and Suleiman will determine the face of Lebanon in the
coming year before parliamentary elections. Neither of the two would
relish a return to the discord between Emile Lahoud and<a href="http://amazon.com/gp/product/1845112024?ie=UTF8&tag=thedailystar-20&link_code=em1&camp=212341&creative=384049&creativeASIN=1845112024&adid=15785b87-d933-482d-b73c-5590c9c29add" name="11a10481e9b546e4_1845112024" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 102); text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Rafik Hariri</a>.
On top of that, if Saad becomes head of the government, he would
benefit from using that position as a foundation to create networks of
alliances transcending those of March 14. An electoral compact with the
Armenians, particularly the Tashnag Party, would be a smart move, and
could shift the balance in Beirut decisively away from Hizbullah, Amal
and Syrian peons.</p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">Another
question is what happens to Walid Jumblatt? The Druze leader has placed
himself at the center of March 14 - a key mediator and usually prime
initiator of the coalition's policies. With a new president in place,
Jumblatt's role will be largely determined by the relationship between
Suleiman and his prime minister. If the prime minister is Hariri and
Hariri and Suleiman work well together, Jumblatt could find himself
isolated. In that case, and if history provides any lessons, he will
soon be contesting Suleiman and the officers the president relies upon.
Jumblatt also will have to keep Suleiman away from his Christian
electorate in Aley and the Chouf. Expect him, in that case, to move
closer to Christians as unenthusiastic about Suleiman: Samir Geagea and
Michel Aoun.</p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">Aoun
is the great loser from a presidential election. It's not like the old
general wasn't warned. He could have used his parliamentary bloc to be
presidential kingmaker; instead he decided to obstruct everything in
order to be elected himself. Now he has only dust to feed on, and in
his final years he may find himself trying to protect his shriveling
flock from the overtures of Suleiman, who, if he is clever, will pick
up a large share of the disoriented Christians. One can already imagine
most of Aoun's parliamentarians in the Metn gravitating toward
Suleiman, knowing that their re-election depends on the goodwill of
Michel Murr, who will be instrumental in moving the district the
president's way. </p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">Samir
Geagea is in a better position than Aoun, both because of his close
ties to Hariri and the Christian community's propensity to create
counterweights to its presidents. However, his power in the Cabinet is
uncertain and he too will have to fight off Suleiman's poaching among
his voters. That's why his rapport with Aoun is bound to improve. </p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">The
matter of Hizbullah's weapons will be the first test for Suleiman once
he is elected. The president risks losing the Sunnis if he comes out
with a limp formula that sidelines any serious discussion of the topic.
Now is the time to put the question of weapons on the table seriously,
and Suleiman, as a former commander of the army, is in an ideal
position to propose a sensible compromise. A second test for the
president will be the choice of a new army commander. The head of
military intelligence, <a href="http://amazon.com/gp/product/1893905713?ie=UTF8&tag=thedailystar-20&link_code=em1&camp=212341&creative=384049&creativeASIN=1893905713&adid=1a48ae36-57b8-4778-948d-83c4fcca3d38" name="11a10481e9b546e4_1893905713" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 102); text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">George Khoury</a>,
is pining for the post, but given the army's indolence during the
fighting in Beirut and Hariri's deep doubts about what happened,
Suleiman may need all his dexterity to propose a successor who
satisfies all sides. </p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">Can Hizbullah be pleased with the result? It will now be able to say that it received <a href="http://amazon.com/gp/product/1416511709?ie=UTF8&tag=thedailystar-20&link_code=em1&camp=212341&creative=384049&creativeASIN=1416511709&adid=6ed17df8-ef8d-47b1-bbf0-74f5538a6073" name="11a10481e9b546e4_1416511709" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 102); text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">veto power</a> in
the government and that the matter of its weapons was not discussed in
Doha. It will also be able to convince its supporters that this was its
latest victory after the government's decision to withdraw the two
decisions last week that Hizbullah found offensive. But that may be
only half the story. By so foolishly taking over Beirut militarily, the
party only scared the other communities into sustained hostility. The
two decisions the government went back on were decisions it could never
have implemented anyway, so Hizbullah effectively revealed its coup
plan at an inopportune time and for little gain. The party also has
lost two cards: It has dismantled its downtown protest camp and won't
be able to close the airport road for some time. Its weapons have
become a subject of legitimate national discussion. And what kind of
war can Hizbullah hope to wage against Israel in <a href="http://amazon.com/gp/product/0275928543?ie=UTF8&tag=thedailystar-20&link_code=em1&camp=212341&creative=384049&creativeASIN=0275928543&adid=06fc4225-3411-41db-a92a-32d6c4476dd9" name="11a10481e9b546e4_0275928543" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 102); text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">South Lebanon</a> when
most Lebanese, and quite a few Shiites, have no desire for war? Most
importantly, Hizbullah has been about the negation of the state. If the
post-Doha process is about the building of a state, then the party and
that state will eventually clash.</p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">Much
will depend on Michel Suleiman. That the president will get only three
ministers in a new Cabinet affirms he has serious credibility problems
on all sides. Suleiman is an unknown quantity. Will he be a faithful
partner of Syria, as when he was army commander? Or will he realize
that he can be more than that? In many ways Suleiman is a peculiar
creation as president, someone never destined to inherit the office.
Now he has a chance to become the long-awaited patron of a new and
consensual Lebanese political order. Let's hope he's up to it.</p>
<p style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(42, 42, 42); text-align: justify;" align="justify">
<em><strong><a href="http://amazon.com/gp/product/0980076323?ie=UTF8&tag=thedailystar-20&link_code=em1&camp=212341&creative=384049&creativeASIN=0980076323&adid=2a9add63-b4a6-4c1f-a98f-635ef01e96c4" name="11a10481e9b546e4_0980076323" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 102); text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Michael Young</a></strong> is opinion editor of <strong>THE DAILY STAR.</strong></em></p>
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