<html><head><style type="text/css"><!-- DIV {margin:0px;} --></style></head><body><div style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:10pt"><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'">Conditions are right for Moussa to get <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s leaders to start leading <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'">Some of the necessary ingredients for a compromise to end the standoff in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Beirut</st1:place></st1:City> are now present, and not a moment too soon. After weeks of stubbornness in both government and opposition circles, both sides seem to be realizing that the current situation demands something more than mindlessly repeating the same maximalist mantras. The trust necessary for a comprehensive deal is not yet in place, but rumblings from some of the key players indicate at least that the antagonists are now speaking the same language.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'">This change affects several internal factors. Regarding the treaty the Cabinet has signed with the United Nations on forming a hybrid international-Lebanese tribunal to handle the Hariri assassination, both judicial officials and the Hizbullah-led opposition have now had time to study the document. The latter has voiced its readiness to back a court, but it wants a few relatively limited amendments regarding jurisdiction. In the matter of institutions like Cabinet and the presidency, both sides now appreciate the fact that <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:place></st1:country-region> has entered a de facto transition stage, opening the door for discussion on a broader spectrum of solutions that might include short-term caretaker arrangements on one or more levels. With regard to elections, the opposition seems to have realized that its
demand that the next polls be held under a new law cannot be met unless and until the Cabinet is permitted to function. In addition, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's solid performance before and during the Paris III conference has enhanced his influence as a standard-bearer of relative moderation within the ruling March 14 coalition.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'">Some helpful shifts are apparent on the external front as well. The French government has softened its intransigence vis-a-vis revisiting the tribunal, and can presumably be counted on to sway <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:State> in the same direction. The Russians are already there. Even Damascus, which has not budged from its rejection of that to which Beirut agreed, has refrained from using its ultimate political weapon: Under Article 53, Subsection 5, of the Lebanese Constitution, the president has the authority to dissolve Cabinet by decree. The current occupant of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Baabda</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Palace</st1:PlaceType></st1:place>, Emile Lahoud, has not exercised that power, even though he has opined that Siniora's Cabinet is illegitimate. Since it is virtually
inconceivable that Lahoud would resist a command from his Syrian backers, it follows that <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Damascus</st1:place></st1:City> has not given up on a compromise.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'">The conditions are right, then, for the emergence of what Arab League chief Amr Moussa has described as a prerequisite for mediation to succeed: the formulation of a Lebanese agenda. Moussa's challenge is to help <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s leaders get the ball rolling in time to keep the anniversary of Hariri's assassination, February 14, from living up to its deadly potential.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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