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<div class="timestamp">January 30, 2007</div>
<h1><NYT_HEADLINE type=" " version="1.0">Boom Market for Lebanon’s
Soothsayers </NYT_HEADLINE></h1>
<NYT_BYLINE type=" " version="1.0"></NYT_BYLINE>
<div class="byline">By <a title="More Articles by Hassan M. Fattah"
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/f/hassan_m_fattah/index.html?inline=nyt-per">HASSAN
M. FATTAH</a></div>
<NYT_TEXT></NYT_TEXT>
<div id="articleBody">
<p>BEIRUT, <a title="More news and information about Lebanon."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/lebanon/index.html?inline=nyt-geo">Lebanon</a>
— In a land racked by sectarian tension and political instability, men
like Michel Hayek have become Lebanon’s unlikely political players.</p>
<p>Mr. Hayek is neither a legislator nor a businessman. He is Lebanon’s
foremost clairvoyant and is credited with predicting some of the more
significant events in the nation’s recent history.</p>
<p>Anywhere else, he might be scoffed at or simply watched with
amusement as he makes his predictions every New Year’s Eve. But in
Lebanon, where fears of renewed civil strife are growing and where many
people are terrified of what the future might hold, what Mr. Hayek had
to say for the new year was taken very seriously indeed. </p>
<p>“I don’t create events, I only see them,” Mr. Hayek said in a recent
interview. “And it’s clear people are really starting to believe in
me.” </p>
<p>Dozens of Lebanese soothsayers — astrologers, clairvoyants and
others who lay claim to predicting the future — now appear on Lebanese
television, write books or columns or prepare horoscopes for
newspapers, predicting everything from celebrations to calamities. The
practice of soothsaying, strictly forbidden in Saudi Arabia and most
other countries in the Middle East that see it as contrary to Islam,
has become a cottage industry here in Lebanon, which has a more
freewheeling attitude.</p>
<p>Every New Year’s Eve, clairvoyants jostle for airtime, hoping to
develop followings. Lebanese politicians consult them, and some seers
say they have been sought out by Saudi princes and princesses —
privately — or by other leaders in the region. Lebanon’s streets buzz
with their predictions, though many religious leaders rail against
them. </p>
<p>“If Michel Hayek says there will be an explosion, then the odds are
very high there will be one,” said Ahmad el-Hajj, a 35-year-old Beirut
resident who used to scoff at the idea of clairvoyants but is now a
believer. </p>
<p>“With all the assassinations and explosions and, you know, the whole
instability in the country, people are eager for predictions of the
future, maybe for hope, maybe for reassurance,” Mr. Hajj said. “It is
something we find ourselves doing more today than we did three years
ago.” </p>
<p>The past year, especially, a series of social and political
phenomena in Lebanon lent the clairvoyants and astrologers special
weight, sociologists here say. </p>
<p>“The phenomenon of clairvoyants has been around for five years or
so, but this year it has taken a life of its own,” said Saoud al-Mawla,
a professor of sociology at Lebanese University, who has been
conducting research on the impact of clairvoyants on public life. </p>
<p>Mr. Mawla said he sent his students to survey Lebanese of all walks
of life about their belief in soothsayers, and was surprised to find
that a vast majority said they believed them.</p>
<p>“People here have lost confidence in their politicians and want to
know what the future has in store for them,” he said. The clairvoyants
“are the natural place to go to.”</p>
<p>They have become especially popular with Lebanon’s Shiites, Mr.
Mawla said, some of whom consider the war during the summer between <a
title="More articles about Hezbollah"
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/h/hezbollah/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Hezbollah</a>
and Israel as a sign of the coming of the Mahdi, the so-called 12th
Imam who is to usher in the day of judgment, according to Shiite
belief. Among Lebanese Christians, meanwhile, the sense of falling
fortunes have left many grasping for some hope and for a window into
the future, Mr. Mawla said. </p>
<p>Small wonder, then, that many soothsayers have begun to focus their
predictions on politics rather than love and fortune.</p>
<p>Hundreds of thousands tuned in to watch Mr. Hayek make prophecies on
the Lebanese satellite channel LBC on New Year’s Eve in an hour-long
program that has been repeated numerous times in the weeks since. He
cast a cloud over the Druse leader Walid Jumblatt; envisioned an attack
on Ahmed Fatfat, the minister of youth and sports; and said that he had
visions of a “vengeful act” against the son-in-law of Gen. Michel Aoun,
the leader of a Christian group and a critic of the government, and
several members of Parliament. After all the turbulence, however, life
in Lebanon will flourish and people will be happy, he said. </p>
<p>Others are less sanguine. A parapsycholgist and astrologer, Samir
Tombe, predicted tensions spreading across Lebanon as the country turns
into a battlefield between Iran and the United States and as
assassinations of prominent figures continue. An astrologer named Jad
said that political instability would continue, but that national
reconciliation talks would settle the crisis.</p>
<p>A clairvoyant, Abu Ali Sabbagh, has foretold the end of the crisis
soon and the government remaining in power as it comes to an agreement
with the Hezbollah-led opposition. He sees Lebanon starting to prosper
starting in February. Sheik Nour al- Nourani, another clairvoyant, has
predicted that a conflict with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah will be fought
in southern Lebanon, in the Bekaa Valley and in the Golan Heights, in
addition to further assassinations and attempted assassinations. </p>
<p>Mr. Hayek scoffs at most of his competitors, whom he derides as
opportunists and charlatans. He prides himself on having predicted
events like the 1996 earthquakes in Turkey, the 1997 death of Princess
Diana and the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri, a former prime
minister of Lebanon. </p>
<p>Already, it seems, life appears to have imitated his two of his most
recent prophecies. He predicted “bloodshed at a university” like that
in mid-January, when a brawl at a college cafeteria broke out into a
sectarian battle on the streets of a neighborhood that is a Sunni
stronghold. He also foresaw a “significant” event at Beirut’s airport,
which happened earlier the same week, when the streets to the airport
were blocked by protesters. </p>
<p>“People have called me the modern-day Nostradamus, but I prefer
Michel Hayek,” he said.</p>
<p>He insisted that, unlike the other Lebanese soothsayers, he did not
sell books or offer consultations. He earns a living in real estate and
as a consultant for several companies, which pay him to make prophecies
about their operations. Most important, he said, he cannot make
predictions about those closest to him, nor can he predict the stock
market. (He tried playing the national lottery but lost, he said.) </p>
<p>Instead, Mr. Hayek said, he regards his prophecies as something of a
public service. </p>
<p>“The country is built on quicksand, and the people are nervous,” he
said. “People are desperate to know what is in store for them, and I am
trying to help them.” </p>
<p>Shortly after Mr. Hayek’s appearance on LBC on New Year’s Eve, Mr.
Jumblatt issued a heated criticism of him and his predictions, Mr.
Mawla said. Other politicians dismissed his statements as ludicrous;
some accused him of being an intelligence agent seeking to make his
predictions a reality. </p>
<p>Some other clairvoyants criticize Mr. Hayek’s focus on politics,
insisting such predictions simply cause more angst or, worse, panic. </p>
<p>“I stopped doing politics after Hariri’s assassination,” said Carmen
Chammas, better known as Carmen the Astrologer, who is the hostess of
two astrology programs daily on the Future TV channel, owned by the
Hariri family. She also writes daily horoscope columns and books on
astrology. </p>
<p>Such predictions require a lot of responsibility to avoid scaring
people, she said, and many soothsayers simply do not take the necessary
care. </p>
<p>“The future has become so unclear and the people have developed many
fears, and need help on which direction to go,” she said. “I give
people hope so they can believe in themselves and their country so that
they can work out their problems.”</p>
<p>Mr. Hayek said that something inside him compelled him to spread his
prophecies, and that he could not simply turn it off. In 2005, he
eschewed making serious predictions after many fake predictions were
made in his name. But he said he came to regret not issuing warnings. </p>
<p>“I don’t ask anyone to believe me,” he said. “I don’t insist
everything I say will come true. This is just something I have in me
that allows me to open the otherworldly in the worldly.”</p>
</div>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Elias I. Muhanna
Arabic & Islamic Studies
Harvard University
6 Divinity Ave.
Cambridge MA, 02138
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:emuhanna@fas.harvard.edu">emuhanna@fas.harvard.edu</a></pre>
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