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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 color="#cc0033" face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#CC0033;font-weight:bold'>Lebanon</span></font></b><font
color=black><span style='color:black'> <br>
<br>
</span></font><b><font size=4 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:
13.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black;font-weight:bold'>Don't blink first</span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=1 color="#999999" face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#999999'>Jan 25th 2007</span></font><font
size=1 color="#999999" face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:#999999'> | </span></font><font size=1 color="#999999"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#999999'>CAIRO</span></font><font
size=1 color="#999999" face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:#999999'> <br>
>From The Economist print edition</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><br>
<br>
</span></font><b><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black;font-weight:bold'>There have been
frightening signs of a slide back to civil war</span></font></b><font
color=black><span style='color:black'><br>
<br clear=all>
</span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><font size=1
color="#999999" face=Arial><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Arial;
color:#999999'>EPA</span></font></p>
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style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><img width=300 height=207
src="cid:image001.jpg@01C740E0.4F1F45D0" alt=EPA border=0></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>IN THE game of chicken
popularised on American screens in the 1950s, the first driver to swerve out of
danger loses. For the past few months, </span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>'s factions have faced off menacingly, revving their engines and
kicking up dust. With the elected government and its bitter opponents each
representing roughly half of </span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>'s complex polity, and with outside powers, each with utterly
different regional agendas, staunchly backing opposite sides, neither has been
willing to blink as the stakes keep rising higher. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>The danger of a
collision has risen steadily since the opposition pulled ministers out of the
coalition government in November, then sent protesters to besiege the office of
the prime minister, Fouad Siniora, in the centre of </span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>Beirut</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>, the capital. This
week, frustrated by his dogged refusal to grant them a veto-wielding share of
cabinet seats, the opposition sped straight for the government's headlights. A
nationwide strike paralysed most of the country; vigilantes blocked arterial roads
and prevented most people from going to work. In many places, pro-government
mobs struck back. The violence threatened to spread into all-out clashes of a
kind not seen since the bitter civil war of 1975-90. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Adding to the anxiety,
the showdown came just two days before some 30 donor countries and agencies
gathered in </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Paris</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'> to promise sorely needed debt relief and more aid. </span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>'s
sovereign debt tops $40 billion, a sum equal to 180% of its GDP. Even before
last summer's ruinous war with </span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Israel</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'> added new burdens, such as the need to rehouse some 200,000
people, just servicing the debt ate up two-thirds of state revenues. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>In the event, it was
the opposition, an odd coalition led by the militant Shia group Hizbullah, that
blinked. At the end of an ugly day that saw </span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>Beirut</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> shrouded in black
smoke from burning tyres, it called off the strike. Three people had been
killed and more than 100 injured. Yet this was no victory for Mr Siniora. He
showed he cannot yet be physically ousted by mob action, but his foes also
sought to show he has lost the consent of half his country. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'> is again so polarised that the day of rage seems only to have
reinforced passions. While a pro-government newspaper condemned the strike as a
“terrorist operation to take the Lebanese people hostage”,
opposition leaders have grimly threatened further escalation. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Both sides represent
political factions and sectarian groups that are often justified in the
accusations they hurl at each other. In the opposition view, for example, the
sight of Hizbullah-hired dump trucks pouring rubble from the war-ravaged,
Shia-populated slums onto the streets of affluent, Sunni-dominated </span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>West Beirut</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>
provided symbolic vengeance for the perceived callousness and corruption of Mr
Siniora's government. For his supporters, however, it looked like
vandalisation, both of Sunni territory and of the shiny image of </span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> as
a haven of slick cosmopolitanism in a dour region. Moreover, many supporters of
the government blame Hizbullah for provoking last summer's war.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Government ministers
charge protesters with threatening to wreck </span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>'s chances of securing
debt relief. The opposition counters that it is these same ministers who
created the debt; they are answered, in turn, by the argument that it is
Hizbullah's relentless militancy that has crippled once-hopeful efforts to
leverage loans into investment. Similarly, the government insists that its
parliamentary majority gives it a right to rule, but its opponents maintain
that the 2005 vote which produced its majority was flawed and that the
resignation of Shia ministers puts the cabinet in violation of a constitutional
requirement to represent all sects. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Such conundrums point
up the peculiar make-up and intractability of the opposing forces. Mr Siniora's
coalition includes Druze and Christian warlords, much of the business elite and
the bulk of Sunni Muslims, including extreme fundamentalist groups that see
more menace in Shias than in an alliance with </span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>America</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>. Hizbullah, aligned
with and armed by Syria and Iran, and doctrinally loyal to the latter, has
found allies in old-time leftists, Arab nationalists, Syrian-backed feudal
lords and the Peronist-style Christian populists of Michel Aoun, a former
general who led a bloody and quixotic revolt against Syrian forces during the
civil war. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><a name="no_compromise_in_sight"><b><font size=3
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black;font-weight:bold'>No compromise in sight</span></font></b></a></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>What is missing is a
leader who might rise above the mudslinging and find common ground. Mr Siniora
has valiantly tried to stay calm under pressure and has offered compromises just
short of his opponents' maximal demands. But he has failed to project a grand
vision that would have to include, for example, fresh elections under a fairer
system. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Some weary Lebanese
now pin hopes on foreign mediation, with much interest stirred by a flurry of
talks between </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Iran</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'> and </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Saudi Arabia</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>, the region's main Shia and Sunni powers respectively. But a
sense of disillusion is all the more sharply felt because it is less than two
years since a massive, peaceful and joyous movement promised a better deal for
all, following the exit of Syrian troops from the country. As a bitter
editorial in one Beirut newspaper commented, regarding the current stalemate,
“The contest might be a comedy of errors were it not for the fact that it
is being played out in a glass house inhabited by real people who bleed real
blood.”</span></font></p>
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12.0pt'> </span></font></p>
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