<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.5730.11" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
title=notification@crisisgroup.org
href="mailto:notification@crisisgroup.org">International Crisis Group</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, December 21, 2006 2:03 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Lebanon at a Tripwire - New Crisis Group
briefing</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P align=center><SPAN lang=en-gb><B><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=4>INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW BRIEFING</FONT></B></SPAN></P>
<P align=center><SPAN lang=en-gb><B><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=5>Lebanon
at a Tripwire </FONT></B></SPAN></P>
<P align=justify>
<P align=justify><STRONG>Beirut/Brussels, 21 December 2006</STRONG>: Lebanon is
at risk of renewed collapse unless domestic and especially international actors
abandon their zero-sum struggle and seek compromise.</P>
<P align=justify><A
href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4586&l=1"
target="">Lebanon at a Tripwire</A>,* the latest briefing from the International
Crisis Group, warns that a political divide and sectarian split in a context of
heavy outside interference will have tragic human consequences and dangerous
regional ramifications. The conflict is now concentrated on the issue of the
international tribunal to prosecute those responsible for the assassination of
ex-Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri and the composition of the government. The
political impasse has led both sides to call out their followers. </P>
<P align=justify>“Street politics have replaced institutional politics”, says
Crisis Group analyst Patrick Haenni. “Huge demonstrations on one side trigger
colossal protests from the other. Civil war remains unlikely. But with
heightened polarisation, intensified confessionalisation and heavy outside
interference, it is again becoming thinkable”. </P>
<P align=justify>The conflict reflects deeper local and international struggles:
a vision of Lebanon anchored in the West against a militant, pan-Arab outlook;
Syria against Israel; the U.S. administration against the Syrian regime;
pro-Western Sunni Arab regimes led by Saudi Arabia against ascendant Iran and
Shiite militancy; and, hovering above it all, Washington against Tehran.</P>
<P align=justify>Any viable solution must reflect a broad consensual package
deal: a joint majority/opposition commission to review and amend the
international tribunal statutes to guarantee independence and
non-politicisation; simultaneous parliamentary approval of those statutes, a
unity government and a new electoral law; early parliamentary and presidential
elections. Lebanon must also address domestic problems that enable and encourage
outside interference. This means strengthening state institutions, ending a
corrupt patronage system and de-confessionalising politics. </P>
<P align=justify>A sustainable resolution of the conflict also requires
immediate U.S. re-engagement with Syria, for Damascus has made clear that it
will destabilise Lebanon if its vital interests are ignored.</P>
<P align=justify>“This conflict is not about coup plotters against democrats or
a popular uprising against an illegitimate state”, says Crisis Group Middle East
Director Robert Malley. “It is one street against the other, one Lebanon against
another. Neither side can afford to lose, and neither can govern alone”. </P>
<HR align=center width="60%" SIZE=1>
<DIV align=center><B>Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) 32 (0) 2 541
1635<BR>Kimberly Abbott (Washington) 1 202 785 1601</B><BR></FONT>To contact
Crisis Group media please <A
href="http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?action=form&fid=16&l=1"
target="">click here</A><BR><STRONG>*Read the full Crisis Group briefing on our
website: </STRONG><A
href="http://www.crisisgroup.org"><STRONG>http://www.crisisgroup.org</STRONG></A>
</DIV>
<HR align=center width="60%" SIZE=1>
<P></P>
<P align=justify>The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an
independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation covering over 50
crisis-affected countries and territories across four continents, working
through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve
deadly conflict.
<HR align=center width="100%" SIZE=1>
</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></BODY></HTML>