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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 color="#cc0033" face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#CC0033;font-weight:bold'>Lebanon</span></font></b><font
color=black><span style='color:black'> <br>
<br>
</span></font><b><font size=4 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:
13.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black;font-weight:bold'>Pulled every which way</span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=1 color="#999999" face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#999999'>Nov 16th 2006</span></font><font
size=1 color="#999999" face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:#999999'> | </span></font><font size=1 color="#999999"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#999999'>BEIRUT</span></font><font
size=1 color="#999999" face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:#999999'> <br>
>From The Economist print edition</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><br>
<br>
</span></font><b><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black;font-weight:bold'>Shias and Sunnis, plus
their respective patrons, tug at a tired country</span></font></b><font
color=black><span style='color:black'><br>
<br>
</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>ALL it takes to see
that </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'> is a starkly polarised place is to drive into </span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>Beirut</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>
from its airport. Portraits of Rafik Hariri, the five-time Sunni Muslim prime
minister slain by a truck bomb in February last year, adorn advertising
hoardings along the highway, captioned “We Shall Never Forget”. A
rival, guerrilla advertising campaign is also under way. “</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>America</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> is
the root of all disasters,” says a sign hanging from an overpass. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Actually, there is no
need to go to </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'> at all to understand that this small country has become a zone of
contest between pro-Western forces, ranked behind the political heirs to Mr
Hariri, and the Syrian-Iranian “resistance” axis that backs Hizbullah.
Last week American officials gave warning of an impending Iranian-inspired
putsch against </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>'s elected government, which is controlled by a coalition of
Hariri-aligned politicians known as the March 14th group. This week Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Iran</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>'s supreme leader, gave warning of an Israeli-American plot to
steal the fruits of what he called “the great victory” won by Hizbullah
in last summer's war with </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Israel</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Both charges are true,
in a way. Hizbullah emerged bruised but politically strong from what it
portrays as an American-orchestrated war. As a result, its demands for a bigger
share of power have grown more strident. For a start it is threatening to
foment street demonstrations unless March 14th grants the party and its allies
a veto over cabinet decisions. The ruling coalition, made up of Sunni Muslim,
Druze and some Christian parties, offered to give Hizbullah supporters more
cabinet seats. But they balked at ceding the power to push through key
projects, rejecting what the prime minister, Fouad Siniora, calls the tyranny
of a minority. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Specifically, the
government accuses Hizbullah of trying to block approval of an international
tribunal to try suspects fingered by a UN investigation into a series of
assassination attempts against March 14th figureheads, including Mr Hariri. The
reason for this, say Hizbullah's critics, is that any trial is likely to
implicate the party's main conduit for weaponry, </span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>Syria</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>, or at any rate some
of </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Syria</span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>'s former proxies inside </span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>, which was under the sway of Syrian forces until the killing of Mr
Hariri provoked mass demonstrations that prompted their ignominious withdrawal.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Even as it denied
these charges, Hizbullah and its allies pulled six ministers out of the
cabinet, a move that handicaps Mr Siniora's government by stripping it of Shia
representation, and so opening it to charges of failing the constitutional duty
to represent all 18 of </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>'s recognised sects. Mr Siniora could, in theory, appoint non-Hizbullah
Shias to fill the seats, but the party's hold over the sect, which makes up 30%
of </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>'s population, is so strong that they would lack credibility. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Nevertheless, Mr Siniora's
rump cabinet called the bluff by swiftly approving the UN's terms for setting
up the tribunal. Amid debate over the legality of this approval, Hassan Nasrallah,
the Hizbullah chief, promised his supporters that the government, which he
accused of having backed </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Israel</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'> during the war, would soon fall. Mr Siniora faced further
pressure from the country's titular president, Emile Lahoud, whose tenure is a
legacy of Syrian influence. He is understandably keen to denounce the tribunal
as many of his associates have been implicated in the assassinations. In a
letter to the UN, Mr Lahoud described cabinet approval of the tribunal as
legally null and void. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Hizbullah still says
its supporters may take to the streets, while March 14th leaders warn they
would stage counter-demonstrations. Worse yet, many Lebanese fear that some
small incident could spark clashes between Shias and pro-government Sunnis, who
make up another 30% of the population. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>At the same time, the
country is struggling to recover from the war. Despite a saturation of foreign
aid, thousands remain homeless. Far more have suffered loss of their
livelihoods, with farmlands clogged by Israeli cluster bomblets and businesses
bankrupted by the collapse of tourism. A recent survey found that nearly half
of all Lebanese hope to emigrate. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Yet it may be that,
almost as a perverse result of all these pressures, Mr Siniora's government
will survive. The Lebanese have experienced disaster before, and few wish to go
through it again. The endurance, so far, of the ceasefire with </span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>Israel</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>,
despite Shia dislike of the presence of thousands of UN peacekeepers, and
despite Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace, is one sign of a slackened
will for confrontation. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> </span></font></p>
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