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<DIV align=center><SPAN lang=en-gb><B><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=4>INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW REPORT</FONT></B></SPAN></DIV>
<P align=center><SPAN lang=en-gb><B><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=5>Avoiding
Renewed Conflict</FONT></B></SPAN></P>
<P align=justify>
<P align=justify><STRONG>Beirut/Jerusalem/Amman/Brussels, 1 November
2006:</STRONG> The international community needs to keep its goals in Lebanon
modest lest it renew the conflagration that Security Council Resolution 1701 has
put a temporary lid on.</P>
<P align=justify><A
href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4480&l=1"
target="">Israel/Hizbollah/Lebanon: Avoiding Renewed Conflict</A>*, the latest
report from the International Crisis Group, examines the fragile stability, but
not sustainable peace. Resolution 1701 has held but temptation to overreach
could trigger new fighting or a domestic showdown in Lebanon. The greatest
threats would be attempts by Israel or UN forces (UNIFIL) to use 1701 as a blunt
means to disarm Hizbollah or by Hizbollah to test UNIFIL resolve. 1701 is a
transitory tool to stabilise the border until bolder action is taken to reform
Lebanon’s political system and build a strong state and to address regional
issues like re-launching the Syrian track and engaging Iran.</P>
<P align=justify>"The international community must be modest in implementing
1701 for as long as it is not prepared to be ambitious in its regional
diplomatic efforts”, says Joost Hiltermann, Crisis Group’s Middle East Project
Director.</P>
<P align=justify>The aftermath of the war triggered by Hizbollah’s capture of
two Israeli soldiers in July produced surprising consensus: an enhanced UN role,
an expanded UNIFIL mandate, the Lebanese army’s (LAF) deployment in southern
Lebanon and the need to strengthen the state. But it would be wrong to expect
too much from 1701. Collective exhaustion produced an ambiguous outcome that
nobody whole-heartedly endorsed but all reluctantly accepted.</P>
<P align=justify>“1701 cannot resolve underlying Israeli-Lebanese problems”,
says Robert Malley, Crisis Group’s Middle East Program Director. “It elevates
Hizbollah’s armed status to a core international concern but entrusts its
resolution to a process incapable of dealing with it and defers the key
political step – progress toward an Arab-Israeli peace – that is a
precondition for settling it”.</P>
<P align=justify>For the sake of stability, achievable, short-term objectives
should be pursued:</P>
<UL type=square>
<LI>
<DIV align=justify>containing Hizbollah and Israel’s military moves, the
former through UNIFIL and LAF forces, the latter through pressure to halt
violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty;</DIV>
<LI>
<DIV align=justify> bolstering the Lebanese state’s sovereignty and in
particular strengthening the army;</DIV>
<LI>
<DIV align=justify>addressing some of Hizbollah’s core justifications for
maintaining its arsenal, in particular the status of Shebaa farms.
</DIV></LI></UL>
<P align=justify>Hizbollah’s status will have to wait until the international
community is prepared to engage in serious Arab-Israeli peacemaking and Lebanon
to tackle its internal political order.</P>
<HR align=center width="60%" SIZE=1>
<DIV align=center><B>Contacts: Kimberly Abbott (Washington) 1 202 785
1601<BR>Nadim Hasbani (Brussels) 32 2 536 0071</B><BR></FONT>To contact Crisis
Group media please <A
href="http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?action=form&fid=16&l=1"
target="">click here</A><BR><STRONG>*Read the full Crisis Group report on our
website: </STRONG><A
href="http://www.crisisgroup.org"><STRONG>http://www.crisisgroup.org</STRONG></A>
</DIV>
<HR align=center width="60%" SIZE=1>
<P></P>
<P align=justify>The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an
independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation covering over 50
crisis-affected countries and territories across four continents, working
through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve
deadly conflict.
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