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<p class=fly-title><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Lebanon and Israel<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<h1><b><font size=6 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:24.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Nasrallah wins the war<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h1>
<p class=info><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Aug 17th 2006<br>
>From <em><i><font face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'>The Economist</span></font></i></em>
print edition<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<h2><b><font size=5 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:18.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Bad news all round, especially if
more of Israel's neighbours come to believe in Hizbullah's methods<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'><img width=300 height=224
id="_x0000_i1025" src="cid:image001.jpg@01C6C2CF.D063FB70" alt=" " title=""><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>HASSAN NASRALLAH and Ehud Olmert both say they
won. But in asymmetrical warfare, the test of victory is asymmetrical too.
Israel's prime minister set himself an absurd aim—the complete demolition
of Hizbullah's power in Lebanon—and failed to achieve it. The shrewder Mr
Nasrallah said victory would consist merely of surviving, and Hizbullah,
however battered, did survive. On the last day it was not just standing, it
also fired a record 246 rockets into Israel. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Hizbullah being what it is, Mr Nasrallah lost no
time claiming that this was “a strategic, historic victory”; crowds
in Tehran chorused that Israel had been “destroyed”. Did Hizbullah
not kill 159 Israelis, including 116 Zionist soldiers? Israel being what it is,
Mr Olmert's political foes lost no time denouncing the prime minister's
failings as Israelis sank into a collective despond about the disappointing
showing of their army and the blunting of their country's long-term deterrent
power.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Mr Olmert, echoed by George Bush, says that
Israel won because it has transformed Lebanon. Under Security Council
Resolution 1701, which brought the fragile ceasefire, Hizbullah is to withdraw
north of the Litani river, make way for the Lebanese army plus a strengthened <span
class=scaps>UN </span>force, and disarm. That would, Israel says, put an end to
Hizbullah's “state within state”. And so it would—if it
happened. But it may not. Within days of the ceasefire, Mr Nasrallah said it
was “too early” to discuss disarming. Syria's president, Bashar
Assad, said so too. And the likelihood of the Lebanese army or a <span
class=scaps>UN </span>force trying to disarm Hizbullah against its will is
zero. Two years ago, the <span class=scaps>UN </span>passed a splendid
resolution, 1559, demanding the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon. If
Hizbullah did not comply then, why should it do so now, flushed with
self-declared victory and with Israel's army still inside Lebanon?<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<h2><a name="lebanon_could_lose_too"></a><b><font size=5 face=Verdana><span
lang=EN style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Lebanon
could lose too<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<p><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>The plain fact is that if Hizbullah is ever to
give up its weapons and become just another political party, it will be through
the pressure of the other Lebanese, not as a direct result of Israel's war (see
<a href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7796490"><font
color="#6291a5"><span style='color:#6291A5;text-decoration:none;text-underline:
none'>article</span></font></a>). The diplomacy should therefore not be built
on the pretence that Israel won a war it didn't. The more that Israel and
America claim otherwise, the less able the caught-in-the-middle Lebanese
government of Fouad Siniora will be to extract favours from Mr Nasrallah. A
better idea would be to deprive Hizbullah of the pretexts it has invented for
keeping up its war. It would be useful, for example, if Israel gave up the
Shebaa Farms, the bit of Syrian territory Hizbullah says is Lebanon's, and
accepted a prisoner swap. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>However, Israel needs to save face too. Mr Olmert
has no interest in concessions that reinforce the idea that he led his warrior
nation to defeat. Israelis feel they dare not let their country look weak. And
now come ominous signs that it does. Mr Assad has started talking again about
liberating the Golan Heights. Having previously denied arming Hizbullah, Iran
this week started to boast about the weapons it sent. If Israel is to give up
Shebaa at such a time it must have something big in return, such as the actual
removal of Hizbullah's arms—not just their concealment—in the south
at least. Since America is not seen as an honest broker, closing such a deal
may well require some new mediator. France? Turkey? Germany? Without an
agreement, the war could resume at any moment.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<h2><a name="when_will_they_ever_learn"></a><b><font size=5 face=Verdana><span
lang=EN style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>When
will they ever learn?<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></h2>
<p><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>If a deal is done, what lesson will Israel take
from this war? Probably something along the lines of: more infantry, fewer
tanks. Those who preach sagaciously from afar that Israel should learn
something bigger—the necessity of making peace instead of relying on
force—have not been paying attention. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>The hubris that blinded Israel after its great
victory of 1967 cleared decades ago. Since the 1980s at least two prime
ministers, Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Barak, gave their all in the search for
peace. The first paid with his life and the second with his job. Even the
hawkish Ariel Sharon budged. He pulled Israel out of Gaza and knocked the legs
from under Israel's settler movement. The trouble for Israel is that in
peacemaking, as well as in war, the enemy gets a vote. What the well-meaning
protesters (see <a
href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7796479"><font
color="#6291a5"><span style='color:#6291A5;text-decoration:none;text-underline:
none'>article</span></font></a>) who have been marching in Europe in praise of
Hizbullah refuse to acknowledge is that today, as in the 1940s, Israel still
has some neighbours who continue to deny its very right to exist as a Jewish
state.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>This is not to say that Israel is blameless. It
has made mistakes aplenty down the years. This war was probably just that: a
mistake after a provocation and not a plot cooked up either by Israel and
America against Iran, or by Iran against Israel and America, as the rival
conspiracy theories go. It followed a bigger blunder: Israel's failure after
Yasser Arafat's death to work seriously with his moderate successor, Mahmoud
Abbas. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>But peace does not depend only on Israel. Six
years ago Israel withdrew from Lebanon to a border painstakingly demarcated by
the <span class=scaps>UN</span>. Hizbullah fought on anyway. Like Iran, it says
its aim is Israel's destruction. Though an authentic political movement with a
domestic agenda in Lebanon, it is also blatantly anti-Semitic. Mr Nasrallah
once reflected that collecting the Jews in Palestine made them easier to wipe
out. Its al-Manar <span class=scaps>TV </span>station is a beacon of hate: one
series purported to show Jews murdering Christian children to use their blood
for Passover bread. Whether Hizbullah and Iran seriously propose to destroy
Israel is hard to tell, but it is what they keep saying—and they have
imitators. The Palestinians' ruling Hamas movement has not yet dared to say out
loud that it accepts even the principle of sharing Palestine with a Jewish
state.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face=Verdana><span lang=EN style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;mso-ansi-language:EN'>Following Mr Sharon's withdrawal from Gaza, Mr
Olmert hoped to follow his example by uprooting Israeli settlements from much
of the West Bank. Hizbullah has now killed stone dead the idea of Israel giving
up territory again without cast-iron security assurances. So there will be no
leaving any of the West Bank until there is a deal. Israel must find some way
to re-engage with the Palestinians. But right now it is not even talking to
Hamas—and Hamas, after the Lebanon war, is in danger of subscribing anew
to the old illusion that Palestine can be liberated by force. Black days ahead for
the Middle East. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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