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<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><FONT
size=3><FONT face="Times New Roman"><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region
w:st="on"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB">Israel</SPAN></st1:country-region><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB">'s unfinished job in <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns
= "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"
/><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><FONT size=3><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1">
</SPAN>What's happening today in the south of <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:place></st1:country-region> is too
much like what happened in 1973 war. After 16 days of conflict, the UN Security
Council adopted a resolution with the number of 338, which calls for a
cease-fire. (Contrary to the 1701 resolution, it defined a stating date, on
22<SUP>nd</SUP> of October).Both conflicting countries accepted the resolution,
still the fighting continued. <o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><FONT size=3><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1">
</SPAN>By the time the 1701 resolution is waiting for the acceptance of the two
governments of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:country-region> and
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place> to take effect. (And it looks
like they both are going to approve it). <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region> has an "unfinished job" in the south of
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:place></st1:country-region>. Hezbollah, for the past
thirty-two days maintained a routine in shelling the same amount of rockets on
north of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place>, and on a daily basis.
<o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><FONT size=3><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1">
</SPAN>Many experts and strategy analysts reported lately in the medias that
Hezbollah had not been defeated yet. In a recent report by Stratfor team cited
that: "</FONT></FONT></SPAN><A
href="http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=272351"><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3>Hezbollah</FONT></A><FONT size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> has certainly achieved an extraordinary degree of
success. It has fought IDF to a draw". Adding also that: "Hezbollah's strategy
has worked thus far, establishing it as the most effective force ever to
confront the Israelis."<SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><FONT size=3><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1">
</SPAN>It is notable to say unlike all other wars <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place>
has fought against Arabs, this was the longest, and probably the first to be won
by diplomatic and political efforts; IDF could not profit from a strategic
military surprise to have a decisive influence on the subsequent course of the
war. In the 1956 war it surprised the Egyptian army by choosing the Zero hour.
Again in the 1967 war in an extraordinary and well coordinated surprise smashed
the Egyptian air force and returned to refuel, leaving behind more than 17
completely destroyed airfields, and around 300 aircrafts. Just a day before
President Abed-el-Nasser was receiving envoys from the <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
convincing him that there will be no war if he does not make the first move. In
1973 war, the Egyptian turned the table, even through President Al-Sadat has
been repeating that the status Quo and the situation of "No War, No Peace" is
not acceptable and must be changed by force. The Israeli military intelligence
knew about doubtful movements on the Egyptian side and did not take them
seriously. This time Surprise was fighting with the Egyptians against the
Israelis. After one week of intense fighting, <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region> had to call for help from its patron the
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United
States</st1:country-region></st1:place>. The supplies and aids did not take much
time; the aerial bridge soon was replacing all the damaged military equipments.
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region></st1:place> shifted to plan B, it had to
gain a striking military advantage to give it a comfortable place on the
negotiating table. The Plan B, lead by Ariel <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Sharon</st1:place></st1:City>, secured a twenty kilometer wide
corridor to the canal with the purpose to surround the Egyptian third army and
cut off its supplies. When Al-Sadat figured it out, it was too late, and this
operation achieved after the UNSCR 338 has been adopted, affected directly the
rest of the war, and thus the wining side.<o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt 45pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><B><I><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3>"The “</FONT><A
href="http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/navy/pmi/1973.pdf"><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3>cease-fire in-place</FONT></A><FONT size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman">” portion of UNSCR 338 was criticized by Israeli
officials who complained it would not allow them to “finish the job” in the
Sinai. Kissinger responded by asking how long it would take to complete
encirclement of the Egyptian army. Upon hearing “two or three days,” Kissinger
is reported to have responded: “Well, in <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Vietnam</st1:country-region></st1:place>
the cease-fire didn’t go into effect at the exact time that was agreed
on."<o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></I></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt 45pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><B><I><o:p><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3> </FONT></o:p></I></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><FONT
size=3><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1">
</SPAN>Similar to what happened in the 1973 war, Israel need more time, probably
few days more, <SPAN style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB">till August
14<SUP>th</SUP> of July. It is trying to deploy a noteworthy number of troopers
(30,000 leaked to the newspapers) in the south of Lebanon, trying to invade as
much as it can, and bear for few days Hezbollah resistance. Monday will come;
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region> had fulfilled its
public opinion, the world and the Arabs of its invincibility and that Hezbollah
could not prevent the IDF from occupying <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
Land.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><FONT size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Pascal Assaf<o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr
style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><FONT size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman">August, 12<SUP>th</SUP> 2006
<o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></SPAN></P>
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size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
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style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; DIRECTION: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-language: AR-LB"><A href="http://blog.independence05.com/"><FONT
face="Times New Roman"
size=3>http://blog.independence05.com</FONT></A><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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