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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>www.haaretz.com<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Last update - 11:19 28/07/2006<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>Let's declare victory and start talking<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>By Ze'ev Sternhell<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>It's a widely accepted idea that an Israeli who returns
home, even after a short period of time, feels as if he has come to another
country. But the opposite is the case: He returns to the same situation, the
same problems, the same thought patterns and mainly, the same solutions.
Apparently, we did not learn a thing from the first Lebanon War or from the
American defeat in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
If the definition of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Israel</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
strategic goal given by the head of Military Intelligence at the beginning of
the week reflects the government's position, we are in big trouble. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>If Israel really did embark on the war in order to force
Lebanon to impose its authority on the south, which is in Hezbollah's hands -
or in other words, to force the Lebanese government to begin a civil war in the
service of Israel - that is a sign that it is dominated by thinking even more
primitive than the thinking that led Ariel Sharon to Beirut about a quarter of
a century ago. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>But this time, we have exacerbated the problem: At the
beginning of the third week of fighting, in spite of the determination and
courage of the attacking soldiers, the war seems only to be beginning. That is
why we should achieve a cease-fire before the campaign gets out of control,
claims victims in vain and, in the long run, even turns into a strategic
failure. In the more distant future, it will be necessary to carry out a
fundamental structural reform of the government's work procedures and to
examine its dependence on the Israel Defense Forces' General Staff. These are
truths that are not pleasant to voice at this time, but that is the reality,
and we are obliged to confront it. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>And in fact, considering the means that the IDF is employing
and the ratio of forces in the field, any outcome less than the elimination of
Hezbollah as a fighting force will be considered an Israeli failure and a great
achievement for the enemy. But since it is impossible to uproot Hezbollah from
among the Shiites without destroying the population itself, wisdom requires us
to refrain from positing goals that are unachievable. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>The inability of a major power to put an end to a guerrilla
war is not a new phenomenon: From Napoleon in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region>,
through his successors in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Algeria</st1:country-region>,
to the Americans in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Vietnam</st1:country-region>
and now in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
well-organized armies equipped with modern technology have always failed in
attempts to defeat irregular forces. The latter know how to adapt themselves to
their surroundings, they are an inseparable part of the population and they
serve its material, religious and emotional needs. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>When there is fighting, guerrilla organizations want the
entire population to be harmed. When everyone is a victim, the hatred will be
directed at the enemy more forcefully. That is why bombing residential
neighborhoods, power plants, bridges and highways is an act of folly, which
plays into Hezbollah's hands and serves its strategic goals: An attack on the
overall fabric of life creates a common fate for the fighters and those
standing on the sidelines. At the same time, the greater the population's
suffering, the greater its alienation from the formal ruling institutions - the
government, the parliament and the various security forces that are powerless
to save them. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>It is an illusion to hope that the 700,000 Lebanese refugees
will direct their fury at their government, or that the population that still
remains in place will evict the Hezbollah members from among it. As far as the
population is concerned, responsibility for its catastrophe lies entirely with <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region>, and failure to cooperate with whoever
fights against <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Israel</st1:place></st1:country-region>
would be considered national treason. It was foolish to assume that the
Lebanese political elite would dare to confront Hezbollah and use force against
it. And anyway, who was even capable of using force? The Lebanese Army, whose
bases were bombed as well? <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>That is why <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Israel</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s
interest must be to isolate Hezbollah, to strike a hard blow at its bases and
camps, but to avoid harming the infrastructure of life for the general
population, even when its gives refuge to those bearing arms. This is not a
matter of military ethics, but of a cold practical considerations. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>The goal of the war is to restrain Hezbollah, because nobody
is dreaming any longer of destroying it. As things look today, at best, <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Israel</st1:place></st1:country-region> will
make do with removing it from the border. There, behind the back of an
international force, which in the Arab world will in any case be seen as
protecting <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Israel</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
Hezbollah will be able to reorganize, train, equip itself with more modern
weapons and prepare for the next round. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>There is no military solution for this situation. IDF Chief
of Staff Dan Halutz has already implied that the solution is political. The
prime minister, who bears overall responsibility and will be required to give
an accounting in the future, would do well not to lag behind the person who in
any case will pass him the hot potato. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>And a word about the price of American support. Sometimes it
seems as if U.S. President George W. Bush wants <st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region>
both to destroy <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Lebanon</st1:place></st1:country-region>
and to sustain painful losses. That way, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region>
provides him with an excellent alibi for the war in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>: The fight against terror is
global, the blood price is the same, the methods of operation and the means are
identical, and the time needed for victory is long. The Israeli vassal is
serving its master no less than the master is providing for its needs. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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