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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=4 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black;font-weight:bold'>Plenty
of seeds, but still a long way to fruition</span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=1 color="#333366"
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#333366'>Xan
Smiley</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=1 color="#999999" face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#999999'>From The World in
2006 print edition</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><br>
<br>
</span></font><b><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black;font-weight:bold'>Arab democracy in 2006</span></font></b><font
color=black><span style='color:black'><br>
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<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Democracy
is not about to break out all over the </span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Middle
East</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>. Monarchs and
republican dynasts, however benevolent, will not be handing over power to the
people. A Berlin-style wall in the desert, protecting rulers from the ballot
box, is not about to crumble. But George Bush’s determination to spread
the notion of democracy as a hoped-for antidote to Islamist terrorism has
changed the mood of the region—and will continue to do so.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>The
biggest steps towards democracy will take place in two of the most problematic
and volatile places: </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Palestine</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'> and </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Iraq</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>In
January the Palestinians will vote for a new parliament. For the first time,
the Islamic Resistance Front, better known as Hamas, will probably take part,
despite Israeli misgivings. It will do well, perhaps nearly matching the
incumbent party, the late Yasser Arafat’s Fatah, at the polls. The
Palestinians’ election is likely to be the freest and fairest in the Arab
world. If Fatah does hold on to power under the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas,
its fresh legitimacy will with luck enable it to engage with </span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>Israel</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>’s
government in an effort to persuade it to give back nearly all of the territory
conquered in the war of 1967.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Democracy
in </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Iraq</span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'> will be much more fraught—but it will advance. Despite the
hostility of Iraq’s Sunni Arabs to the new constitution, passed (just) in
the autumn of 2005, they will start participating more fully in Iraq’s
democracy, even though many will continue to help the insurgents. And they will
be much better represented in the new parliament. More of them will turn
against the extreme end of the insurgency, where the likes of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi,
who claims to be al-Qaeda’s local representative and who detests the
apparently godless notion of democracy, will become increasingly unpopular,
even among Sunnis who want the Americans and their allies to quit.</span></font></p>
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color=black face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><img
width=10 height=10 src="cid:image003.gif@01C6017B.BB484A40"><br>
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</span></font><b><font color="#000066" face=Verdana><span style='font-family:
Verdana;color:#000066;font-weight:bold'>Democracy in </span></font></b><b><font
color="#000066" face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana;color:#000066;
font-weight:bold'>Iraq</span></font></b><b><font color="#000066"
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana;color:#000066;font-weight:bold'>
will be much more fraught—but it will advance</span></font></b><font
color=black><span style='color:black'><br>
<img width=10 height=10 src="cid:image004.gif@01C6017B.BB484A40"><br>
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<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>So
the bomb will compete against the ballot box, the prevalence of violence making
it harder for democracy to take hold. But many Iraqis, especially the Shia
Arabs and Kurds, who together make up 80% of the people, are determined that it
should.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>The
germ of democracy will spread in a number of less violent Arab countries. </span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>,
in particular, will continue to shed Syrian influence and will re-emerge as the
most sophisticated and liberal Arab state in the region. And the Americans will
promote a trio of more or less benevolent monarchies—</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>Morocco</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>, </span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>Jordan</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>
and </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Bahrain</span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>—as exemplars of their democracy campaign. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>By
most criteria, setting aside the odd cases of </span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>Palestine</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>, </span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>Iraq</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> and </span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>Lebanon</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>, </span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana;color:black'>Morocco</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> is
the group leader among the rest of the Arab League’s 22 countries. It
will allow real political parties to compete. Its Equity and Reconciliation
Commission will air and investigate past human-rights abuses, though rather
more selectively than the South Africans did. Its family code should let women
enjoy more rights.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Jordan</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'> and </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Bahrain</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>, both quite open by Arab standards, are not as go-ahead. The only
serious political party in </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Jordan</span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>’s parliament is the opposition Islamic Action Front; King
Abdullah will continue to call the shots. In </span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>Bahrain</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>, the majority Shias
will remain under-represented and politically surly.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>More
to the point, in all three of these front-runners towards democracy, the
monarch has ultimate power. No one expects them to become real constitutional
monarchs any time soon, though they all claim to be gently heading that way.
But they will tiptoe ahead.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><a name="islamists_in_moderation"><b><font size=3
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black;font-weight:bold'>Islamists in moderation</span></font></b></a></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>The
big question, for all Arab countries moving slowly towards greater political
choice, is how much leeway to give Islamist groups, such as the Muslim
Brotherhood, which has a wide following across the region. Sensing a chance to
get back into the mainstream, moderate Islamists will make headway by
persuading governments that it is wiser to have them working inside the system
than undermining it from outside. Even so, the secular regimes that dominate
the Arab world will remain nervous that Islamists, however well repackaged as
moderates, will achieve too much influence through the ballot box—with no
intention of retaining multi-party democracy should they ever achieve power.
Yet continuing to suppress them is even more certain to stoke up dangerous
discontent. </span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>How
to accommodate apparently moderate Islam, in order to spike the likes of al-Qaeda?
</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>Egypt</span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'> is the litmus test here. It may feel obliged to give the Muslim
Brotherhood more space; but will not risk giving it a real chance of power.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><br clear=all>
<img width=447 height=1 src="cid:image006.jpg@01C6017B.BB484A40"><a
name=footnote1></a></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:12.0pt'><b><font size=1 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>Xan Smiley</span></font></b><font size=1 color=black
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>: </span></font><font
size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>Middle East</span></font><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> and </span></font><font
size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;
color:black'>Africa</span></font><font size=1 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'> editor, <i><span
style='font-style:italic'>The Economist</span></i></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> </span></font></p>
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