<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2900.2604" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Lebanon: Elections
Endangered</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Carnegie Endowment -- Walid Choucair</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>April 2005</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial
size=2></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The opposition's insistence on investigating the
Hariri assassination, in addition to pro-Syrian forces' attempt to improve their
electoral chances, increase the likelihood that parliamentary elections
scheduled for May will be postponed, according to <EM>Al</EM> <EM>Hayat's
</EM>Beirut bureau chief.<BR><BR></FONT><A
href="http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=16773#lebanon"><FONT
face=Arial
size=2>http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=16773#lebanon</FONT></A></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Arial size=2></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial
size=2></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>A New Lebanon?</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>New York Review of Books -- Max
Rodenbeck</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>April 8, 2005</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial
size=2></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Lebanon is smaller than Connecticut and scarcely
more populous. Its economy, still struggling to recoup the losses of the
1975–1990 civil war, hardly amounts to the annual turnover at McDonald's. What
is so special about the country? The immediate answer is that this statelet,
which was subtracted by French imperialists from greater Syria, has suddenly
found itself to be the fine point upon which the fate of a much wider region
balances. That sounds an oversized claim, but an extraordinary passion play has
been unfolding in Beirut over the last few weeks. It is a drama that happens to
pit forces which, in a particularly stark fashion, seem to represent the
competing narratives that will ultimately define the Arabs' vision of their
recent past and soon-to-be-revealed destiny. These forces are, in many ways,
similar to those that have clashed within every Arab society, and continue to do
so, in what some historians describe as a struggle between the cosmopolitan
Arabs of the coastal cities and those of the inward-looking hinterland. And just
now, on the Arab airwaves transmitting scenes from the streets of Beirut, a
turning of the tide in this struggle may be fleetingly discerned.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial
size=2></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A
href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/17952">http://www.nybooks.com/articles/17952</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial
size=2></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial
size=2></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Syria After Lebanon, Lebanon After
Syria</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>International Crisis Group -- Report</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>April 12, 2005</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Recent developments have brought close the prospect
of Syrian withdrawal and free Lebanese elections. But ensuring a peaceful and
successful transition requires insulating Lebanon from wider regional dynamics.
The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri has heightened
pressure on Syria, and brought together once disparate actors -- the U.S.,
France, and Lebanese activists -- on core demands, including complete withdrawal
of Syria's military and intelligence; truth on Hariri's assassination; and free
elections under international supervision. But for Lebanon, awash with weapons
and on the verge of a major power redistribution, the means and motivations for
violence abound. The U.S. must avoid temptations to use the situation to achieve
its larger regional objectives and should focus on the goal of a sovereign,
stable Lebanon.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><A
href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=3368">http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=3368</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>