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<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Verdana color=#cc0033
size=2>Lebanon</FONT></STRONG><BR><BR><FONT
face="verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif" size=+1><B>Fill that
vacuum</B><BR></FONT><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color=#999999
size=-2>
<DIV>Mar 23rd 2005 | BEIRUT</DIV>
<DIV>From The Economist print edition</DIV></FONT><BR><BR><FONT
face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1><B>As nerves fray, could the Arab
world's first female prime minister emerge?</B></FONT><BR>
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<TD vAlign=top align=right><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"
color=#999999 size=-2>AFP</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR>
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<TD vAlign=bottom><IMG height=301 alt=AFP
src="http://www.economist.com/images/20050326/1305MA2.jpg" width=200
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<P><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=-1><B>Might Bahia Hariri
be called to the top?</B></FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!--back-->
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>YOUNG Beirutis bobbed on
with the bamba at their fanciest nightclub, the Music Hall, as text messages
relayed news on March 18th of the country's first car-bomb since the one that
blew up their former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, last month. But behind the
bravado lurks fear that the party may be turning sour. Five days later, another
bombing in a Christian area north of Beirut killed two people, further raising
sectarian tension. Mr Hariri's greatest legacy—the bustling complex of shopping
colonnades that was once Beirut's war-battered centre—is again a nervous no
man's land. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>The opposition, which
wants Syria to let go of its hold over Lebanon, is still able to put on a good
street party, papering over the country's differences. Christians who once
castigated Mr Hariri for Islamising the country by building a massive mosque
with minarets soaring above the churches downtown dutifully hang his photograph
from their balconies. Young anti-Syrian activists in their tent city, put up to
keep vigil by Mr Hariri's shrine in Martyrs' Square, have acquired friendships
and even lovers across the sectarian divide. Where demonstrations elsewhere in
the Arab world are guided by men with beards, in Beirut the front lines are
still being manned by fashion queens with Pekinese dogs wrapped in Lebanon's
flag, along with suave bankers accompanied by Sri Lankan maids. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"
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<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>But Lebanon is now
counting the costs of the stand-off with Syria, which has taken half of its
occupying army back home and withdrawn the rest to the Bekaa valley in the east.
The legion of Syrian construction workers, who rebuilt Beirut, have taken flight
in fear of reprisals. Heineken has suspended plans to open a brewery; a flock of
cranes stand stationary over the city. The city municipality is advertising for
hundreds of rubbish collectors. Jobless Lebanese are keenly awaiting the day
when an independent government will impose work visas on Syrian migrants they
accuse of stealing their jobs. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>But Central Bank
economists say the exodus of migrant workers will push up salaries (since Syrian
labourers worked for $6 a day, whereas most Lebanese expect $18), spike
inflation and cut profits. An injection of Kuwaiti and Saudi capital has so far
matched the flight of Syrian capital, but bankers fear that angry rulers in
Damascus may block Lebanon's trade routes to the Arab world. “If the gains are
lost, the euphoria will be baseless,” says one. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>In any event, the street
protests have brought down a government but left a political vacuum. Lebanon
remains a tinderbox of sectarian rivalries, making regime change a complex
business. The opposition is an uneasy alliance of sects, led by warlords
jostling for position. Christian leaders suspect that Walid Jumblatt, the Druze
leader, is working the Lebanese crowd and world opinion for his own political
ends. When he spoke of winds of regional change blowing west from Iraq, he may
genuinely have seen a democratic light. But many Lebanese think that Mr
Jumblatt, a lifelong “anti-imperialist” who lambasted America's invasion of
Iraq, was singing from Washington's hymn sheet just to win President Bush's
backing. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>So Christian Maronite
leaders, including their patriarch, have rallied to prevent the Druze leader
anointing his own man as president, a post the constitution allots to one of
their own, even though uneasy about the continuing rule of their co-religionist,
President Emile Lahoud, who is seen as a stooge of his Syrian counterpart,
Bashir Assad. “That guy [Mr Jumblatt] waged war for 15 years against the
Maronites,” says an aide of the patriarch. “We don't want to see a Maronite
president thrown to the wolves like a piece of meat.”</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>Sniffing a chance to
divide the opposition, Mr Lahoud's remaining men are fanning sectarian flames.
“If they keep on pushing internationally and domestically, it will blow up into
a civil war,” says a presidential official. Though Mr Lahoud can no longer count
on the army, which has already disobeyed orders to crush the demonstrators, his
security chiefs are continuing their reign. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>Lebanon is exhausted by
war, but the ingredients for violence are still very much there. While the
Iranian- and Syrian-backed Islamist movement, Hizbullah, is Lebanon's best-armed
militia, all the old warlords still have their private ports, through which they
can rush arms into Lebanon within hours. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>So far all the country's
religious leaders have sought to restrain ambitious sectarian politicians, but
the opposition sorely needs a unifying figure. Mr Hariri's sister Bahia, an
<FONT size=-1>MP</FONT>, has impressed with her moderation, courage and
non-sectarian embrace. While some of the best-known opposition figures, such as
Mr Jumblatt and the Maronite leader, Amin Gemayel, have retreated to their
strongholds in apparent fear for their lives, Ms Hariri calmed the crowds from
the podium in Martyrs' Square. She hurried to comfort New Jdeideh, a Christian
suburb in Beirut hit by last week's bomb. And she has reached out to the
restless followers of Hizbullah.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=-1>If she were made prime
minister, it would hardly reduce the blight of nepotism. But it would at least
give all Lebanon's communities a respected prime minister to fill the vacuum and
the modern Arab world its first female leader. That really would mark a
break.</FONT></P></DIV></BODY></HTML>